MLB Playoffs 2024: Divisional Round Picks and Predictions For Every Series

Major League Baseball's postseason is down to its final eight teams, with the NLDS and ALDS set to begin on Saturday.

Each of these matchups will be best-of-five series, with the higher-seeded team hosting Games 1, 2 and, if necessary, 5. The lower-seeded team will host Game 3, and, if necessary, 4.

Here are predictions on how all four matchups will play out.

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

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Los Angeles, CA, Thursday, September 26, 2024 -Los Angeles Dodgers dh Shohei Ohtani (17) slides safely into third base on a sixth inning sacrifice fly by teammate Freddie Freeman at Dodger Stadium. Padres third baseman Manny Machado awaits the throw. (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Prediction: Padres Over Dodgers In Four Games

In 2022, the Dodgers won a staggering 111 regular season games only to get a first-round bye and lose to the division-rival Padres in four games in the NLDS. Two years later, it'll be a repeat.

Granted, the Dodgers didn't have Shohei Ohtani or Teoscar Hernández in 2022. What they had, though, was a deeper overall team than what they have in 2024, particularly in terms of starting pitching. The rotation that manager Dave Roberts will likely utilize in the NLDS is, well, not intimidating.

Game 1: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Game 2: Jack Flaherty

Game 3: Walker Buehler

Game 4: Landon Knack

Flaherty had a strong season between the Detroit Tigers and Dodgers, posting a 3.17 ERA across 162 innings pitched. But Yamamoto missed close to three months with triceps tightness and only pitched 16 innings across four starts in September. Buehler hasn't been the same since returning from his second Tommy John surgery and finished the regular season with a 5.38 ERA. Knack pitched well across 69 innings this season, but pitching in a potential elimination game is a lot to ask of a rookie.

There's also the reality that in two years of this current playoff system, the Dodgers have had first-round byes and then lost to a division rival—last year, it was the Arizona Diamondbacks—after having time off. More data needs to be gathered on how the bye affects teams overall, but it's hard for the Dodgers to feel great about it. You also wonder if a third consecutive NLDS exit might mean L.A. makes a change at manager.

Meanwhile, the Padres were baseball's best team in the second half, going 43-20 after the All-Star break. San Diego then proceeded to make quick work of the Braves in the NLDS, sweeping them in two games. There's a real magic at Petco Park right now.

The Padres may not have quite as scary of a lineup as the Dodgers, but Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Luis Arráez, and Jurickson Profar have more than enough firepower to win a championship.

It's unclear what Joe Musgrove's status will be, but Michael King, Yu Darvish, and Dylan Cease are still an impressive trio. Manager Mike Schildt can also use his top three relievers, Jason Adam, Tanner Scott, and Robert Suárez, to shorten games.

The Padres won the season series 8-5 over the Dodgers, and with three more wins here, they'll head back to the NLCS for the second time in three years.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 31: Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after hitting a first inning single as Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets looks on at Citi Field on May 31, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Prediction: Phillies Over Mets In Four Games

The Phillies were the best team in baseball before the All-Star break, going 62-34. However, the second half was more uneven, with the Phillies going 33-33 after sending a franchise-record eight players to the Midsummer Classic.

So which version of the Phillies will show up in October after having a first-round bye?

Well, it helps to have arguably the best starting rotation in baseball when trying to ease questions. Zack Wheeler was once again one of the five best pitchers in the sport and has a 2.42 career postseason ERA. Even with questions about what the Phillies can expect from Ranger Suárez, Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Aaron Nola, it is a pretty daunting trio to get through.

Offensively, the Phillies are probably too reliant on the home run for their own good, but when Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are hitting the ball out of the yard, the Phillies can slug with anyone.

The Mets have had a magical season, with the latest chapter coming when Pete Alonso hit a go-ahead three-run home run in the ninth inning off Devin Williams to lead New York to a series-clinching Game 3 win in the NLWCS.

Ultimately, though, the Mets may just run out of pitching. With Jose Quintana and David Peterson pitching Thursday, manager Carlos Mendoza may have to turn to Tylor Megill to start Game 1 against Wheeler. Edwin Díaz, Phil Maton and José Buttó have all had unsustainable workloads in the bullpen recently. They'll have Friday off, but unless Megill shocks and goes deep into Game 1, it will be another long day for New York's bullpen.

It's been an incredible season for the Mets, but ultimately, the Phillies are just a better overall team. They will win this series to advance to the NLCS for the third year in a row.

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

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DETROIT, MI - JULY 30: Cleveland Guardians designated hitter Jose Ramirez (11) bats during the first inning of a regular season Major League Baseball game between the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers on July 30, 2024 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Prediction: Guardians Over Tigers In Four Games

No one would have imagined before the season that three of the final four teams standing in the Junior Circuit would be from the AL Central.

By now, the Tigers' story is well documented. They sold at the trade deadline, moving pieces like Flaherty and Mark Canha in what seemed to be a lost season. However, manager A.J. Hinch's squad went 17-8 in September, which, coupled with a collapse by the Minnesota Twins, allowed them to sneak into the postseason.

In their first postseason series since 2014, the Tigers swept the Houston Astros in two games. Likely AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal and infielder Andy Ibáñez were among those who shined in the series for Detroit. No matter what happens from here, "the Gritty Tigs" have had a magical season.

With that said, perhaps no team will benefit from the bye more than Stephen Vogt's Guardians. The strength of Cleveland's team is one of the best bullpens ever. There are some shortcomings in the starting rotation for the Guardians, but in a best-of-five series, Vogt will be able to be aggressive with his top four relievers.

- Emmanuel Clase: Likely to finish in the top five in AL Cy Young voting, Clase converted on 47 of 50 save attempts this year, finishing the season with a minuscule 0.61 ERA.

- Cade Smith: Quietly one of the best rookies in baseball this year, Smith finished the year with a 1.91 ERA and even lower 1.40 FIP across 74 games.

- Hunter Gaddis: Over a team-high 78 appearances, Gaddis posted a 1.57 ERA and 0.763 WHIP.

- Tim Herrin: The 1.92 ERA Herrin posted this season for the Guards was the fourth-best mark on his team, maybe the best indicator of the dominance of this arm barn.

Meanwhile, José Ramírez tied his career-high with 39 home runs, as he, Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan were all key cogs in a lineup that was vastly improved from a year ago.

Can you win a World Series with a starting rotation of Tanner Bibee, Ben Lively and question marks afterward? It's fair to be skeptical. But there's enough here for the Guardians to return to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 09: Bobby Witt Jr. #7 of the Kansas City Royals in action against Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 09, 2024 in New York City. The Yankees defeated the Royals 10-4. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Prediction: Yankees Over Royals In Five Games

The Royals went just 11-14 in September, which led some to question whether they would be an early postseason exit. Instead, they swept the Orioles in the ALWCS. Granted, they only scored three runs in the series, but their pitching was excellent, and they held the Orioles to just one run over two games.

Pitching makes manager Matt Quatraro's team a tough out in October baseball.

Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo should finish in the top five in AL Cy Young Award voting. They also have the deepest starting pitching staff remaining in the AL, with Michael Wacha and Brady Singer looming behind their two aces. Additionally, Lucas Erceg has been one of the better relievers in baseball since being acquired from the Oakland Athletics.

The Yankees pitching staff doesn't have the length of the Royals, which puts more pressure on them to win Game 1 when reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole will take the ball. As impressive as Kansas City's rotation is, Cole is one of the best pitchers of this era and posted a 2.25 ERA over his final 10 starts of the season. Having Cole lined up to pitch Game 1 and, if needed, Game 5 tips the scale towards the Yankees.

It's fair to critique the Yankees' lineup and say they are too reliant on Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. There's some truth to that, but there are a few things worth remembering.

First of all, Judge is going to win his second AL MVP this year and Soto is going to earn a record-setting deal in the offseason, so if there's any duo in baseball you want to be overly reliant on, this is it. Secondly, a similar argument could be made that the Royals lean too much on Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez, which perhaps contributed to them only scoring three runs in the two ALWCS games.

Of the four DS matchups, this one was the hardest one to predict. But when you're trying to break a tie, betting on the greatness of Judge, Soto and Cole—while hoping players like Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton, Luis Gil and Luke Weaver can make contributions—isn't a bad strategy.

Once again, Judge will edge out Witt by a whisker.