Week 5 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets
While Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season wasn't quite as unpredictable as the first three, there were still some outcomes that seemed to emerge from left field.
The Denver Broncos outlasted the New York Jets despite getting a mere 60 passing yards from quarterback Bo Nix. The Indianapolis Colts put together an offensive display against the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers defense—thanks to some off-the-bench magic by Joe Flacco.
Picking winners is still a very difficult process, and things won't be much easier in Week 5. Fortunately, bettors have other options.
Here, you'll find a few box-score over/unders to consider for Week 5, based on factors such as recent production, projected roles, individual matchups and the early-week lines.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tyler Allgeier Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
1 of 4
Among early player props, this over/under for Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier stands out.
Allgeier is -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to hit the over in rushing yards, and it feels likely. While second-year star Bijan Robinson is Atlanta's top running back, Allgeier was the more effective rusher against the New Orleans Saints in Week 4.
Allgeier racked up 60 rushing yards on eight carries, while Robinson ran seven times for 2 yards. Assuming the Falcons are willing to stick with the hot hand, Allgeier should see a fairly significant rushing workload against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night.
And the Bucs haven't been particularly effective against the run. They rank 29th in yards per carry allowed (5.0) and 22nd in rushing yards allowed this season.
The Falcons should look to take a run-heavy approach against their division rivals this week, and that bodes well for Allgeier's backfield volume. He should have little trouble reaching 34 yards, unless Atlanta finds itself facing a large early deficit.
Rachaad White Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
2 of 4
The Buccaneers will also use a backfield split on Thursday night. Rookie Bucky Irving has emerged as the team's most efficient ball-carrier. He's averaged 5.8 yards per carry while Rachaad White has averaged just 2.8 yards per rush.
However, White remains Tampa's top third-down back and a prominent piece of the passing attack.
White has been targeted at least three times in three of four games this season. While he only caught two passes against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, he has caught 14 passes through the first four games.
The 25-year-old has also averaged just over 33 receiving yards per game this season. He's -120 to finish with at least 21 receiving yards this week. It's a mark he should hit against the Falcons.
Atlanta ranks eighth in yards per carry allowed (4.0) this season, and if Tampa struggles to run the ball, it'll likely augment the offense with short passes and screens. That will provide plenty of opportunities for White.
Aaron Rodgers Under 223.5 Passing Yards
3 of 4
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is -115 to go over or under the line of 223.5 passing yards. At first blush, the over might feel like the obvious play. The Jets will face the Minnesota Vikings, who have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season.
However, Minnesota's defensive ranking deserves some context. The Vikings have opened up a sizeable early lead in every game this season, which has prompted opponents to take a pass-heavy approach. Minnesota has actually been efficient against the past, ranking 10th in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
Against New York's stout defense, a big early lead feels unlikely. The Jets are far more likely to take a balanced offensive approach while looking to shield Rodgers from a very potent Vikings pass rush (17 sacks through four games).
With this game taking place in London, there's also the potential for some sloppy offensive play—and things have rarely clicked for Rodgers and the Jets anyway. Rodgers has only thrown for more than 223 yards in two of his four games this season. He barely reached the mark in Week 4 (225 yards) and it took him 42 attempts to get there.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Saints and Chiefs over 42 Points
4 of 4
Week 4 will end with a very intriguing matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints.
The total points line currently sits at 42, which is low, but there's a reason for it. The Chiefs have been more of a defensive team this season and won't have top receiver Rashee Rice or top running back Isiah Pacheco in the game.
Still, this line feels a little too low, given the offensive talent that will be involved. Kansas City still has Patrick Mahomes, while the Saints offense boasts playmakers like Derek Carr, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara.
Three of New Orleans' four games have topped 42 points this season, while two of Kansas City's have done the same. This game may not be an offensive track meet, but under the bright lights of Monday night, it stands a good chance of hitting the over anyway.
Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
