B/R College Football 2024 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 3
Sometimes, wagering on college football is a matter of both timing and interpretation.
Take last week for example. If you focused on our five primary picks against the spread, you went a cool 4-1. The lone loss with those picks came on Utah, and starting QB Cam Rising exiting the game at halftime certainly didn't help. That is a delicate way of saying that we could have been perfect.
If you played the other games, however, things went astray. A 4-1 week quickly became a 4-5 week, and Locks of the Week will enter Week 3 looking to rebound. For the year, we're 9-12. This is very un-Locks-ish, and we're deeply aware of that. Please know that things will turn in due time. They always do.
With ownership firmly taken, we're ready for Week 3. But before we get to those picks, let's assess the good and bad from the week that was.
The Good: Syracuse (+3) vs. Georgia Tech: We could have gone in a few different directions here, although this one was deeply satisfying. The Orange played a superb game at home as a small dog. Overall vibe check here? Tremendous.
The Bad: Auburn vs. Cal (Over 53.5): It started off fabulous. Auburn and Cal traded touchdowns to start, and we were off and running. After that, however, things slowed down immensely. And for Hugh Freeze, this was even uglier.
With that complete, it's time for winners.
For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.
Texas State (+2) vs. Arizona State
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The Sun Devils deserve a great deal of credit. After an abysmal 2023, Arizona State has two wins over reasonable opponents to start the year. Head coach Kenny Dillingham looks like a future coaching star.
Now, let's get down to business. A trip to Texas State is where things get tricky. If you have not been paying attention to the Bobcats lately, that is likely to change.
Last week, Texas State clobbered UTSA 49-10. Last season, this same team won eight games despite facing a formidable schedule.
Quarterback Jordan McCloud has star potential, having served as one of the centerpieces of James Madison's impressive run last year. His presence alone is reason for optimism for Texas State in this game and beyond. And the total, currently hovering in the upper 50s, implies that points will be scored.
ASU hits the road for the very first time, and life will not come easy as a result. A small home upset unfolds.
Florida State (-6.5) vs. Memphis
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File this under "buying low."
To say that Florida State has started the season in unimpressive fashion would be an understatement. The Seminoles enter Week 3 as a bit of a mess, having lost their first two conference games. There's no softening these defeats. FSU lost to teams it never should have lost to.
Now, let's look on the bright side. A roster that was largely overturned finally has some seasoning. A Week 2 bye, which couldn't come soon enough, should also help. While we're by no means buying this team as an ACC contender, we are buying Florida State in this spot.
Memphis, a team on the verge of being ranked, is coming off a 38-17 win over Troy. The difference with this opponent, however, is that the Tigers will still be facing a bigger, faster team. It's the nature of the beast in coming from a Group of Five conference—albeit a very good one with promise.
The Tigers will be fine in the long run, but Florida State finally gets right. Well, at least for one week.
Notre Dame (-10) at Purdue
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On the topic of bargain-bin shopping, enter Notre Dame.
The Irish are coming off a shocking loss as a massive favorite in Week 2, losing to Northern Illinois at home. A lack of offense, turnovers and a shocking lack of defense served as the lowlights, and a manageable path to the playoff looks suddenly foggy.
Unfortunately, Marcus Freeman has gotten used to these kinds of losses. Fortunately, at least in this instance, the Irish have showcased an ability to respond. (Not losing games as massive double-digit favorites in the first place would be ideal, but we'll leave that topic for another day.)
Purdue, currently 1-0, has presented a challenge for favorites at home before. QB Hudson Card was brilliant in the team's opener, although this should serve as a more significant challenge.
Given last week, many will look to auto fade the Irish. Look for the defense to play better, the offense to protect the ball and Notre Dame to secure a double-digit win.
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Miami (OH) (+3.5) vs. Cincinnati
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At one point on Saturday, Cincinnati was comfortably ahead of Pitt 27-6 with the third quarter bleeding away.
Then, Pitt scored a touchdown, Then the Panthers scored again. And again. And then they kicked a field goal with 17 seconds remaining to sink the Bearcats in stunning fashion.
Fast forward one week, and Cincinnati must hit the road for a sleepy early kickoff in what could be a hangover special.
Miami (OH), meanwhile, enjoyed a bye last week after a hard-fought Week 1 road loss at Northwestern. Still the team to beat in the MAC, the RedHawks' defense should give the Bearcats issues on Saturday.
In terms of name-brand awareness, Cincinnati, with a College Football Playoff trip on its resume, obviously takes the cake. But Miami is a pesky opponent playing at home. Regardless of how the Bearcats' most recent game went, this feels like a close, ugly game that stays inside the number.
Sam Houston (-4.5) vs. Hawai'i
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Let's get a little degenerate with our last feature game, which fittingly features our favorite degenerate football game.
While we love betting on Hawai'i football games after hours, this one will be played early in the evening on Saturday at lovely Elliott T. Bowers Stadium in Huntsville, Texas. To play this game, the Rainbow Warriors will travel more than 3,800 miles.
That's at least one of the reasons why we love the favorite. The other is that this point spread jumps off the page.
Sam Houston is coming off a tough loss to UCF, which should come as no surprise. That's a loss that is supposed to happen. Hawai'i, now 1-1, played tough against UCLA at home. Given the Bruins' many changes, we're not quite sure what that means.
We're following the oddsmakers' lead on this one. Sam Houston acts the part of the chalk and wins by more than a touchdown.
Other Games on the Card
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Georgia State (+10.5) vs. Vanderbilt
If you're looking for a double-digit underdog worth playing, look no further. Vanderbilt deserves credit for a hot start, but Georgia State could present an interesting test at home.
UMass (+4.5) at Buffalo
A few short years ago, this pick would have seemed wild. But now? Well, maybe it's still wild. Either way, we like an improving UMass team against a Buffalo program that has regressed.
East Carolina (+2.5) vs. App State
We're not just betting East Carolina because App State was absolutely destroyed by Clemson last week. That plays a part, of course, but this has always been an odd place to travel.
Liberty (-23) vs. UTEP
A week after nearly losing as a massive favorite, Liberty is poised to bounce back in a big way at home. Expect a massive game from Kaidon Salter.
Rice (+4) at Houston
Although the Cougars hung tough with Oklahoma, the oddsmakers clearly aren't buying it. Rice is extremely live as a small underdog.
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