Super Bowl Predictions 2012: Why Green Bay Packers Won't Be Playing in Big Game

The Green Bay Packers are the favorites to win Super Bowl XLVI after finishing the 2011 NFL season with a record of 15-1, but I will show you why they won't even be playing in the big game.

The Packers feature the most precise and deadly offense in the league, and Aaron Rogers reinvented quarterback excellence with an incredible 2011 season.

They have relied on this offense throughout the regular season, but there are major issues underneath the surface that will scuttle the Packers' Super Bowl aspirations.

They Don't Stop the Run

The Packers rank in the middle (14th in NFL) when it comes to stopping their opponents rushing game, surrendering just under 112 yards per game.

Who can forget the LeGarrette Blount steamroller run in Week 11? Blount ran over and through five defenders, and the Packers were helpless to stop him.

The Packers will likely face the New York Giants or the Atlanta Falcons in their divisional round. The Giants are the worst running team in the NFL, so they won't be likely to pose a problem in this area.

The Falcons, on the other hand, have the ability to establish a punishing rushing attack that could wear down the clock, keeping Rogers and the Packers offense off the field while simultaneously wearing down the Packers defense. 

If the Packers handle their divisional opponent, whichever team comes out of the other side of the bracket will surely give them trouble on the ground.

I expect either the San Francisco 49ers or New Orleans Saints to ultimately be the team to challenge the Packers in Lambeau Field on January 22nd, 2012. Both teams are among the league leaders in rushing yards per game (SF is eighth, NO is sixth), and both teams will give the Packers defense trouble.

They Don't Stop the Pass

The Green Bay Packers gave up the most passing yards in the NFL in 2011 (4,796). They also gave up the fifth-most touchdowns in the league (29). 

Against a team like the 49ers, this might not be much of an issue, but if the Falcons, Lions, Giants or Saints end up facing the Packers we could see another game like the Week 17 shootout between the Lions and Packers. 

All it is going to take is one off day from Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense for their season to end in a fiery furnace of a blowout. Can you imagine how many points the Saints could score if Rogers has a game like the one he had in Kansas City? 

Yes, the Packers are brilliant at creating turnovers at just the right time (first in the NFL with 31 interceptions), but sooner or later they will have a bad game in that department, too. All those yards will start adding up to an insurmountable scoring deficit that even Rogers will be unable to overcome.

They Are Vulnerable to a Strong Pass Rush

The Packers are vulnerable to a team with a strong pass rush. Aaron Rogers, despite being one of the most athletic and pressure-sensitive quarterbacks in the NFL, has been sacked 41 times in 2011. 

This means that the offensive line is getting brutalized on a regular basis, and Rodgers is getting hit before he can even react.

A team like the Saints, with Gregg Williams dialing up blitzes like a mad scientist, could catch Rodgers off guard a few too many times and create the invaluable turnovers that would turn the tide of the game to their favor.

The 49ers have an even better chance to dominate the Packers offense due to the fact that they regularly get incredible pressure on opposing quarterbacks using a four-man rush, allowing seven defenders to roam the field. This is the biggest reason the 49ers lead the league in creating turnovers.

Out of the three reasons I've outlined in this post, I believe that this one will ultimately be the one that leads the Packers to their downfall. Rogers must have protection, or the Packers offense won't have time to get into sync, and they will lose.