5 NBA Championship Betting Odds That Are Flat-Out Wrong
For NBA fans, Labor Day signals the unofficial end of the offseason, giving us a reason to review pre-training camp championship odds.
Overall, the odds mostly make sense. It's no surprise FanDuel has the Boston Celtics as the favorite to win next season with +300 odds. Right behind them are the Oklahoma City Thunder at +700 after finishing No. 1 out West in 2023-24.
But there are five teams whose odds seem off, either overhyped or underestimated. Some have lost key players but are still considered contenders, while others show more promise than they're being credited.
Some of these odds need a serious adjustment.
Denver Nuggets +900
1 of 5
The Denver Nuggets are tied with the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks for the third-highest odds to win this year's championship. These odds are high for Denver based on how their season ended last year and how the offseason went.
It is easy to think the Nuggets should have some of the best odds as long as Nikola Jokić is on the team, but digging deeper, they may need more than just one of the best players on the planet.
Last season, Denver tried to replace two key members of its championship squad with young players like Christan Braun and Peyton Watson. They did an admirable job, but they were no replacement for Bruce Brown or Jeff Green.
Jamal Murray was banged up all season long, and his calf hindered him in the playoffs, as the Nuggets were eliminated in the second round by the Minnesota Timberwolves. Murray's injury carried over to his run with the Canadian Olympic team in Paris. His health has to be a primary concern, and it has not been trending in the right direction over the past year.
To make matters worse for the Nuggets, they lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, another key member of their '23 title team, in free agency.
Denver did bring in Russell Westbrook as its big signing, but in 2024, that is not as big a signing as it would have been in 2014.
Minnesota Timberwolves +1200
2 of 5
The Minnesota Timberwolves knocked out the Denver Nuggets in the second round of the playoffs last season but have lower odds than them.
Oh, it must be because they don't have Anthony Edwards anymore…wait, that's not it.
Rudy Gobert's defensive presence must be sinking; well, he just won Defensive Player of the Year.
Well, they did not get much for Karl-Anthony Towns. Wait—what do you mean they didn't trade him?
The point is that the Wolves are bringing back the same core but are not getting the respect they deserve after what they did last season. It was not just eliminating the previous year's champion; the team has continuity. Edwards had a good run with Team USA in the Olympics. Even though Gobert was not playing major minutes, he was a contributor on the silver-medal French national team.
The Wolves are positioned nicely to replicate their successes from last season, more so than the Nuggets. They should flip spots, with Minnesota's championship odds at +900.
Milwaukee Bucks +1300
3 of 5
Last season was not a great run for the Milwaukee Bucks. They fired first-time head coach Adrian Griffin midseason and lured Doc Rivers out of the ESPN booth and to the sidelines. Damian Lillard never found his flow in his first season in Milwaukee. An injury forced Giannis Antetokounmpo to miss the playoffs and thus led to the Bucks' exit.
It was a season of chaotic change for the Bucks. Besides having a new coaching staff, they traded Jrue Holiday, a key piece of their defense, for Lillard. That trade happened just before training camp, so there was no lead-up time for the players to get acquainted with one another, no time for the coaching staff to adjust their strategy for the season and not a lot of time for Lillard to even get settled into the city.
It was a difficult start to the season. Griffin changed the Bucks' base defense from the previous regime and then switched it back at the players' request. He never found his footing as a coach and was replaced by Rivers, who made sure everyone knew how difficult it was taking over midseason.
With all the instability from last season, a fully healthy Bucks team would have been a contender in the Eastern Conference. Coming into this season, they have stability, more time to build chemistry and a chip on their shoulder. Odds of +1300 are too low for a team with an MVP candidate in Giannis, a more settled Dame and a healthy Khris Middleton.
Vegas should fear the deer.
Los Angeles Lakers +3500
4 of 5
The Los Angeles Lakers holding the sixth-best championship odds in the West feels like the FanDuel sportsbook is buying into Lakers exceptionalism.
This team is anything but exceptional; they are barely average.
The Lakers finished seventh last season and were marched out of the playoffs by the Nuggets. Their most significant offseason change was firing Darvin Ham and hiring JJ Redick. Apart from adding a few rookies, the roster has stayed the same.
Los Angeles did not make a big trade at the trade deadline last year, did not make a move at the draft, and it was quiet during free agency. Besides LeBron James and Anthony Davis, there is not a wealth of talent on the roster. Austin Reeves is a good role player, but D'Angelo Russell is not a playoff-caliber starter. Dalton Knecht is a good rookie, but he is not going to fix their issues.
The roster has holes, and Redick is a first-time head coach coming straight out of the TV booth to the sidelines.
Let it be clear: the Los Angeles Lakers are not championship contenders, especially not with top-10 odds.
Memphis Grizzlies +4000
5 of 5
The Memphis Grizzlies might be the most slept-on team in the NBA.
It makes sense; they want everyone to forget what happened during their 27-win season. They got only nine games from Ja Morant, 20 from Marcus Smart and 42 from Desmond Bane.
Last season was so bad that everyone may have forgotten how good Memphis was the previous year when they won 51 games. A core of Morant, Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Smart is strong, even in the Western Conference.
In the draft, the Grizzlies added Zach Edey, whose 7'4" frame gives them the size they need to help replace Steven Adams. They found a gem in GG Jackson, who will miss the next three months with a broken foot. This team is better than the Lakers, who have better championship odds, and the Grizzlies should be on par with the Phoenix Suns (+2400).
Just a quick reminder: during the 2022-23 season, Morant averaged 26.2 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.9 assists.
There is no arguing that the past two years have been a bit difficult for him off the court, but this could be his redemption tour.
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