Best and Worst Cases for Each NFL Division Ahead of 2024 Training Camps
Training camp for the 2024 NFL season has begun, and perceptions of each division's ceiling and floor are just about settled. The trick is figuring out whether to expect the best, the worst or somewhere in between.
On paper, Roster X seems to have improved dramatically thanks to free agency and the NFL draft. Roster Y appears to have taken a considerable step back because of retirements and players who signed elsewhere. The national consensus may agree with those two kinds of situations, too.
And then, we might be hilariously wrong anyway.
No matter how much research any of us undertake, there's always a wide range of outcomes for an NFL season.
While the following scenarios are subjective, the opinions—both positive and negative—are rooted in offseason discourse.
AFC East
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Best: Jets Fly into Deep Playoff Race
Last season, the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins made the postseason. Expectations remain the same for both franchises in 2024, even as Buffalo dealt wideout Stefon Diggs and Miami retooled its defense.
The wild card, however, is the New York Jets. Aaron Rodgers is set to return from his Achilles injury, and the Jets appear to have a playoff-caliber roster surrounding him. There's a distinct possibility that the AFC East boasts three playoff qualifiers this season.
Worst: All Hype, No Substance
As the New England Patriots embrace a rebuild, they probably won't contend for much. That'd be a happy bonus in Foxboro.
However, what if Buffalo's skill-position group falters and Miami's overhauled defense has a rough year? You might be confident about Rodgers' health, but it's not exactly controversial to suggest that returning from a significant injury at 40 years old isn't an easy thing.
I'd consider it unlikely, yet there's a path to the AFC East only sending its champion to the playoffs.
AFC North
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Best: Battle Royale, Part II
Yes, the Baltimore Ravens wrapped up the division with a week to spare last season, so the dramatics ended before the final Sunday. Nevertheless, the entire AFC North finished with a winning record as the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers also made the playoffs.
Why not do it again? (And, hey, let's watch a championship-deciding game on Sunday night in Week 18.)
Worst: Big-Name QBs Crumble
Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson. On name recognition alone, it's tough to beat the AFC North.
Jackson still has a shaky supporting cast, though, and the Burrow-led Cincinnati Bengals need to figure out their early-season struggles. Watson's efficiency has been subpar in Cleveland, and now-Pittsburgh starter Wilson had a disastrous run with the Denver Broncos.
Again, the worst-case scenario—by its own nature—is supposed to be improbable. That middle paragraph likely won't all come true. Yet we cannot dismiss any of those phrases individually.
AFC South
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Best: Youth = Excitement
Trevor Lawrence, the veteran quarterback of the AFC South, turns 25 in October. Will Levis is entering his age-25 season, while CJ Stroud (23) and Anthony Richardson (22) are also second-year players.
In theory, young QBs need to handle a learning curve. Stroud brushed that off in 2023, however, and both the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts bolstered the receiving corps for Levis and Richardson, respectively. Optimism is easily found in those fan bases.
The division may actually send a second team to the postseason for the first time since 2020.
Worst: Champion Barely Hits 10 Wins
On the other hand, some basic negatives are lingering.
Although I don't believe Stroud will undergo a sophomore slump, the Houston Texans' schedule will be much tougher after a worst-to-first ascent last season. Jacksonville fell apart late in 2023 and certainly isn't a safe bet to rebound as a playoff-bound team.
Levis has plenty to learn in a new offense, and Richardson needs to find a proper balance of being aggressive and not reckless.
AFC West
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Best: Someone Gives Kansas City a Run
We're all sensible people here, right? We can agree that the Kansas City Chiefs, the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champions, enter the season as the overwhelming favorite in the AFC West.
But that doesn't necessarily mean the Chiefs will cruise to a crown.
Jim Harbaugh has a habit of rapidly improving his team, so the Los Angeles Chargers have benefit-of-the-doubt upside. Antonio Pierce has leaned into a defense-first identity, and a competent offense could make the Las Vegas Raiders a thorn to play in 2024.
Worst: Chiefs Run Away, Again
Or, well, the Chargers and Raiders might be mediocre. Los Angeles has a concerning group of skill-position talent, and Las Vegas' QB situation is less than ideal. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos have entered a teardown.
In the last five years, four of KC's division titles have included a margin of three-plus games. Soon enough, it could be 5-of-6.
NFC East
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Best: Third Playoff Contender Emerges
For three straight years, the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles have advanced to the playoffs. That streak—while at least worth discussing in 2024—is expected to hit four.
The main question for the division is whether the New York Giants or Washington Commanders will manage to join them. New York managed that in 2022. Before then, though, the NFC East hadn't sent a trio to the postseason since 2007.
Should the Giants or Commanders make it happen, that'd be an admirable campaign for the division.
Worst: Top Teams Slip, Giants Don't Ascend
Over the last two seasons, Philadelphia has produced a 25-9 record with Dallas sitting a single game behind at 24-10. The franchises notched 11-plus victories in both years.
But the Cowboys endured an embarrassing exit in the playoffs and has wandered through a strangely quiet offseason. Philly had a dreadful finish to 2023 and lost veterans Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox to retirement. I'm not hitting a panic button, yet those are substantial negatives that could lead to a less-impressive division champion.
New York is poised to determine if Daniel Jones is actually the long-term solution, and the answer might not be positive. Washington's rebuild has a new coach and rookie QB, so patience may be required.
The division has decent potential, but the downside is apparent.
NFC North
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Best: Lions and Packers and Bears, Oh My!
Not only did the Detroit Lions impress, a youth-filled offense on the Green Bay Packers soared to an unexpected playoff spot in 2023. Both teams are viewed as strong playoff contenders this season.
But they might not be alone. After drafting Caleb Williams and upgrading the skill positions around him, the Chicago Bears—who have a single 10-win record in the last decade with immediate losses in both playoff trips—enter the year soundly in the NFC's wild-card discussion.
Worst: No Real Challenger in the NFC
Similar to the Patriots, the Minnesota Vikings are in the earliest stage of a rebuild. Flirting with a playoff appearance would undoubtedly lead to a "house money" feeling. Chicago isn't yet considered a Super Bowl threat despite its playoff hopes, too.
The disaster scenario for the division is neither the Lions nor Packers end up making that proverbial step forward.
Last year, both organizations put a serious scare into the San Francisco 49ers. The sensible takeaway is that Detroit and Green Bay should be competing for an NFC title in 2024. If everyone falls shy of the Divisional Round, that would be a failure for the North.
NFC South
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Best: Coaching Changes Spark a Surge
While the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers have a new head coach, all four NFC South franchises hired a new offensive coordinator. This division is full of fresh ideas in 2024.
And that could be a beautiful thing.
Last season, the 9-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers edged the New Orleans Saints on a tiebreaker to win the division. Atlanta mustered a 7-10 mark, while Carolina stunk up the joint at 2-15. Don't expect a Super Bowl surprise, but improved coaching could make a major difference.
Worst: Another Flare of All-Around Mediocrity
During the last decade, the NFC South has included a champion with seven, eight or nine victories. The last two seasons have not cast a glorious light on the division, either.
As much as optimism is fun, that's tougher to muster here. Carolina is very much in a rebuild, while New Orleans continues to kick the average-talent can in salary-cap hell. Tampa is believing Baker Mayfield's rise wasn't a fluke, and Atlanta is banking on Kirk Cousins to successfully bounce back from an Achilles injury in his age-36 season.
If you think the South won't have a 10-win team for the third consecutive year, I'd entertain that opinion.
NFC West
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Best: Two Wild-Card Threats
Barring a shocking collapse, San Francisco will be headed to the playoffs—likely as the NFC West champion, too.
The more interesting story is the depth of the division. Aaron Donald's departure stings the Los Angeles Rams, but this roster is still competitive. Mike Macdonald, the Seattle Seahawks' new head coach, should be a positive influence on the defense, and a healthy season from Kyler Murray figures to benefit the Arizona Cardinals.
Is that enough for a pair of wild-card teams? Some tiebreaker luck may be crucial, but it's not an unreasonable thought.
Worst: Niners Roll in Disappointing Division
Or, you know, the West implodes after San Francisco.
Cross-division matchups with the AFC East and NFC North are a rough combination for a trio of teams already well behind the Niners. The more Arizona, LA and Seattle cannibalize each other—as in, split their head-to-head meetings—the greater San Francisco's gap could be.
Given that the NFC East has a likely wild-card team and the NFC North might have two, this division could be limited to one playoff qualifier for the first time since 2017.
