5 RBs Who Could Win Their First NFL Rushing Title in 2024
Throughout NFL history, top running backs have had a stretch of dominance. Most recently, Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry won four rushing titles, two apiece, in a five-year span between 2016 and 2020.
Though in each of the previous three years, a running back has claimed his first rushing title.
While that trend may continue in 2024, don't assume a young ball-carrier will lead the league in yards on the ground.
In 2023, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey won the rushing title at 27 years old, the oldest league-leading rusher since Adrian Peterson, who accomplished the feat at age 30 in 2015.
In most cases over the last decade, rushing leaders played within ball-control offenses that ranked closer to the bottom of the league in pass attempts with a pocket-passing quarterback.
We'll look for those common denominators in our top candidates to win the 2024 rushing title.
In today's league, few teams feature a bell-cow running back, and several clubs have a dynamic quarterback who contributes to the ground game, which shortens the list of potential entrees.
With that said, five running backs have a good shot to ground and pound their way into NFL history books in the upcoming season. Running backs Nick Chubb and rookie second-rounder Jonathon Brooks, who are still recovering from serious injuries, didn't make the cut.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
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When a team takes a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick in a draft, he's expected to carry the offense with his arm, but Trevor Lawrence hasn't shown enough consistency to lead a pass-heavy attack.
After his 2022 Pro Bowl year, Lawrence regressed with a turnover-ridden 2023 campaign. He threw 14 interceptions and lost seven fumbles.
At the end of the previous season, head coach Doug Pederson called out Lawrence's ball-security issues as a problem to address going forward.
"For the quarterback, the person that touches the ball every snap, we got to make sure the emphasis is taking care of the ball," Pederson said to reporters.
Jacksonville could field a more efficient offense with a strong commitment to the ground game.
Last offseason, Pederson said he wanted Travis Etienne to push for 1,600-1,700 rushing yards.
Etienne came up short of that goal, rushing for 1,008 yards in 17 outings in an offense that ranked sixth in pass attempts and 17th in total carries.
If Pederson wants Etienne to average nearly 100 rushing yards per game, he has to devise game plans that feature him a little more on the ground.
After Lawrence's disappointing 2023 season, the Jaguars' offensive approach could match Pederson's vision for Etienne to take the next step as a top ball-carrier.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
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Like Adrian Peterson in 2015, Aaron Jones could win the rushing title in his age-30 term with the Minnesota Vikings.
Peterson kept his body in impeccable shape during his playing days, though Jones' ability to break off big gains gives him a shot to outrun the league at this stage in his career.
Jones has averaged five yards per carry through seven seasons. He's averaged more than that in four out of seven campaigns, most recently in 2022 at 5.3 yards per rush attempt.
Furthermore, Jones landed in a situation that will allow him to take over the featured role.
In the Green Bay Packers backfield, Jones shared carries with 2020 second-rounder AJ Dillon, who saw his role increase over the past few years.
This offseason, the Packers cut Jones, and he may have a larger workload in Minnesota.
Jones won't split carries with an early-round draft pick.
Furthermore, at quarterback, the Vikings will probably start Sam Darnold, who has struggled with turnovers in his career, or rookie J.J. McCarthy.
To minimize Darnold's mistakes or help McCarthy along without putting too much on his plate, the Vikings could feed Jones on the ground in several games.
If Jones matches his career average in rushing yards per carry, he could rack up 1,700-plus yards in a full season.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
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As a rookie, Bijan Robinson racked up 1,483 scrimmage yards, but he has higher expectations for himself.
"Yeah, I had 1,400 yards, but for me, I have such high expectations, that's not a great season," Robinson said (h/t Sports Illustrated's Daniel Flick). "From the expectations people have from me, I could see them looking at that season like, 'that may be great somewhere else but that shouldn't be the standard for me.'"
Robinson split touches with running back Tyler Allgeier, which capped his rushing workload. Robinson racked up 976 yards on the ground while Allgeier rushed for 683 yards, but the former averaged 4.6 yards per carry compared to 3.7 yards per carry for the latter.
Under a new coaching staff, Robinson could take on more of a featured role.
Keep in mind that former Falcons' head coach Arthur Smith faced criticism for not giving Robinson more carries.
As quarterback Kirk Cousins recovers from a torn Achilles (suffered late in October of 2023) going into his age-36 term, he may not bounce back to regular-season form with new teammates right out of the gate.
The Falcons should lean on Robinson, whom general manager Terry Fontenot selected with the No. 8 pick in the 2023 draft.
Motivated to have a more productive season than his last, Robinson could push himself to league-leading rushing numbers by the end of the 2024 campaign.
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Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
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The New England Patriots enter the post-Bill Belichick era with a first-time full-time offensive play-caller, Alex Van Pelt, which makes it difficult to project the outlook of their offense.
However, we know the Patriots will have a quarterback battle with ninth-year journeyman Jacoby Brissett, career backup Bailey Zappe and rookie first-rounder Drake Maye.
Based on the resumes of the three starting quarterback candidates, the Patriots may not lean heavily on their passing attack, which probably means more work for the running backs on the ground.
As a rookie in 2021, Rhamondre Stevenson served in a backup role. He spelled Damien Harris on early downs.
Still in a reserve role for most of the 2022 season, Stevenson led New England in rushing with 1,040 yards.
Last year, Stevenson missed five games and finished second behind Ezekiel Elliott on the team in rushing, but he started in all 12 of his outings.
The Patriots didn't use a draft pick on a running back, though they did sign Antonio Gibson, but he's a 6'0", 228-pound hybrid running back-receiver who saw a decline in his rush attempts and an increase in his target volume over the last three years.
As the traditional running back, Stevenson should continue to handle the lion's share of the team's carries.
Because of the unknowns in the Patriots' aerial attack with the two rookie wide receivers, Kendrick Bourne on the mend from a torn ACL and K.J. Osborn finding his role on a new team, Stevenson could be the focal point of the offense.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
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Kyren Williams had a breakout 2023 season. He finished third in rushing with 1,144 yards.
If not for an ankle injury that cost him five games, Williams may have won the rushing title last year. He led the league in rushing yards per game (95.3) while averaging five yards per carry.
Williams has missed Los Angeles Rams organized team activities with a foot injury, but head coach Sean McVay doesn't seem concerned about the ball-carrier's absence.
"It's nothing to worry about," McVay said to reporters. "He'll be ready to go for training camp, but there's a little issue when he was training. And [I'll] kind of just leave it at that. But nothing to be concerned about."
Williams has a history of injuries, and the Rams selected running back Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 draft.
However, Corum's involvement in the offense could help preserve Williams for the duration of the season.
If Williams plays through most of the campaign, averaging five yards per carry, he won't need to suit up for 17 contests to win the rushing title.
Lastly, as quarterback Matthew Stafford enters his age-36 campaign, McVay may operate a run-heavy offense.
The Rams signed guard Jonah Jackson to a three-year, $51 million contract and inked guard Kevin Dotson to a three-year, $48 million extension. They could open up massive running lanes for Williams in the upcoming term.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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