2024 Kentucky Derby: Choosing the Best Picks Among Top Contenders

The 2024 Kentucky Derby field is dominated by three clear favorites.

Fierceness, Sierra Leone and Forever Young currently have the lowest odds to win the first leg of the Triple Crown on Saturday.

Each one of the three horses performed well in the buildup to Churchill Downs to separate themselves from the rest of the 17 thoroughbreds in the field.

However, the favorite tag does not automatically land horses a spot in the winner's circle. The last three official winners of the Kentucky Derby were listed at 10-1 or longer on the day of the race.

Kentucky Derby Field

Best Picks Among Top Contenders

Fierceness

Fierceness has been in the Kentucky Derby discussion since last year when he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile race.

Fierceness confirmed his Derby favorite status by winning the Florida Derby on March 30 in his final tune-up for the Triple Crown hunt.

There will be work to do from an outside post position, but none of the horses around Fierceness have odds of lower than 20-1.

The Todd Pletcher-trained horse should run its own race on the outside before joining up with the other favorites from the inside.

It's an ideal starting position in terms of quality around Fierceness. It may backfire if no one else on the outside is fast, but if that is the case, Fierceness should move to the inside and work with the leading pack.

Fierceness also holds a jockey advantage with John Velazquez, who has three Kentucky Derby wins and six Triple Crown victories.

Forever Young

Forever Young is the best foreign horse entered in the Derby field.

The Japanese-bred horse dominated the overseas circuit over the last six months.

He won the UAE Derby in March and Saudi Derby in February to cement his status as the best foreign entrant to start the Triple Crown.

He is one of two undefeated Japanese horses to participate in the Derby, but Forever Young is favored more than T O Password because of his last two wins overseas.

The two foreign horses start next to each other, so that could help with the start, but they likely will not be together for most of the race.

History is against Forever Young reaching the winner's circle. The last foreign Kentucky Derby winner was Sunny's Halo in 1983.

Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone finished first or second in each of his last four races.

The horse starting out of Post No. 2 captured the Blue Grass Stakes on April 6 to finish his Derby preparations.

Sierra Leone beat out fellow Derby participants Just a Touch and Epic Ride to win at Keeneland last month.

He also beat out Track Phantom and Catching Freedom at the Risen Star Stakes in February.

The proven track record against Derby participants makes Sierra Leone one of the strongest contenders in the field.

The Chad Brown-trained horse also has some history on its side since seven winners and 25 finishers in the money have come from the No. 2 post.