Ideal Landing Spots for MLB's Top 9 Trade Targets
Major League Baseball's trade deadline will be on July 30. It goes without saying that in mid-April, no team is altogether out of a playoff race, particularly with three wild-card spots up for grabs in each league.
However, you can start to draw some conclusions on potential buyers and sellers based on how teams have performed early in the season, especially if a team that was expected to struggle has gotten out of the gate slowly. There are some other clubs who have historically either not sold when they are struggling, or are willing to buy and sell at the same time.
With all that acknowledged, here are nine stars who look like early trade candidates, along with some potential landing spots.
Jesús Luzardo, SP, Miami Marlins
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Ideal Landing Spots: Astros, Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Braves, Padres
Miami Marlins left-hander Jesús Luzardo is essentially the last man standing in a starting rotation that's been devastated by injuries. Assuming he's still healthy in August, he may very well be on another team.
Luzardo has had an ugly start to the 2024 season, but the 26-year-old posted a 3.48 ERA and 3.40 FIP across 279 innings between the 2022 and 2023 campaigns. He may not be the right target for a team that's hoping to acquire someone to pitch in the first game of a playoff series. But for a team that expects to play deep enough into October, he would be an excellent third or fourth option in a playoff rotation.
Luzardo has two remaining years of arbitration eligibility, meaning he can't become a free agent until after the 2026 season. From that perspective, Miami president of baseball operations Peter Bendix could be compelled to hold on to Luzardo. At the same time, additional years of team control could increase the return that the Fish get for Luzardo, who did draw trade interest last offseason.
The Astros are in desperate need of starting pitching, and Luzardo also would give them insurance with Justin Verlander set to become a free agent after the 2024 campaign. Framber Valdez is slated to do the same after 2025.
Pretty much every team in need of pitching figures to be in on Luzardo. It will just be a matter of who is willing to overpay a bit to land him.
Kenley Jansen, RP, Boston Red Sox
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Ideal Landing Spots: Phillies, Braves, Royals, Brewers
Kenley Jansen was rumored as a trade candidate this past offseason, but ultimately remained with the Boston Red Sox to open the campaign. Jansen, though, will turn 37 in September and can become a free agent after the 2024 season, so unless Boston is still in the playoff picture, he'll probably be moved this summer.
One of the most accomplished relievers in MLB history, Jansen is tied for fifth all-time with 424 saves. While he's no longer at the height of his powers, he is still an effective reliever capable of taking the ball in the ninth inning for a contending team.
Given his advanced age, Jansen would make the most sense for a club that has other options capable of closing, so his workload can be paced in the lead-up to the playoffs. He would fit best for a team just looking for the icing on the cake in its bullpen, not to overhaul the entire group.
A return to the Braves, where he spent the 2022 season, would make sense. The NL East-rival Phillies—who have a lot of good relievers without a set closer—might be an even better fit.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
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Ideal Landing Spots: Guardians, Rangers, Yankees, Twins
From a legacy perspective, the St. Louis Cardinals might like to retain Paul Goldschmidt. He won NL MVP with them and has spent six years in St. Louis after an eight-year run with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
He has a very real Hall of Fame case, and the Cardinals might like the opportunity to claim that Goldschmidt was as much a Cardinal as a Diamondback if he enters Cooperstown.
However, from an on-field perspective, the Cardinals are an old team that probably missed their window. Goldschmidt will turn 37 in September and may like the opportunity to join a World Series contender this summer if the Cardinals' season doesn't pan out how they hope.
It would be interesting to see what his market would be. So many contending teams—the Braves, Dodgers and Phillies, for example—have star first basemen already. But given that Goldschmidt can become a free agent at the end of the season, some lower-budget contending teams could consider trying to land Goldschmidt as a rental.
The Guardians, in particular, fit that mold. 23-year-old Kyle Manzardo could be a factor this season, as he's started the season at Triple-A Columbus. Cleveland could try to acquire Goldschmidt to make a playoff run in 2024, shifting Josh Naylor to DH. Goldschmidt would presumably depart in free agency next winter, with Manzardo ready to take over.
The Yankees (Anthony Rizzo), Rangers (Jared Walsh) and Twins (Carlos Santana) all have veteran first base options that Goldschmidt would represent a clear upgrade over.
Paul Blackburn, SP, Oakland Athletics
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Ideal Landing Spots: Orioles, Yankees, Guardians, Tigers, Braves, Mets, Brewers, Giants
Paul Blackburn was an All-Star in 2022 because every team gets one, but despite all the turmoil that's surrounding the Oakland Athletics, he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball in the early going of 2024.
That doesn't mean a team should trade for the 30-year-old expecting an impact like the Brewers got from CC Sabathia in 2008. But if you need an arm to help improve the back end of your rotation to assure you make it to the playoffs, Blackburn fits that bill. He could also be a Game 4 starter if he goes to a team that makes a deep playoff run.
Blackburn should draw widespread interest on the trade market, because it projects to be a weak crop of pitchers available and he can't become a free agent until after the 2025 season.
The veteran right-hander might actually make the most sense for a team that's in the mix for a playoff spot but expects to be even better in 2025. The Mets, Brewers, Tigers and Giants are all among the teams that could hedge their bets at the trade deadline, looking like buyers by trading for Blackburn, knowing even if they fall out of the race, he'll be part of their rotation next season.
Tyler O'Neill, LF/RF, Boston Red Sox
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Ideal Landing Spots: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays
Tyler O'Neill is healthy for the first time since posting a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting with the Cardinals in 2021, which has made the offseason trade the Red Sox swung to acquire him look like a stroke of genius for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. (This week's outfield collision doesn't seem to be something that will land him on the injured list.)
But while the Red Sox could hold on to O'Neill—hoping to either sign him to a long-term deal or extend a qualifying offer to him next winter—his injury history might make Boston a little more inclined to strike while the iron is hot, especially if it isn't contending.
O'Neill has a pair of Gold Gloves (2020 and 2021) in left field. He could shift to right field if that's what a team needed from him and even has some experience in center field. When you pair that with 30-plus home run power, O'Neill figures to be one of the most coveted players available this summer, assuming health.
If the Dodgers don't feel comfortable that some combination of Jason Heyward, Chris Taylor, Kiké Hernández and Andy Pages can fill the final spot in their outfield alongside Teoscar Hernández and James Outman, O'Neill could be a fit for a team that's World Series or bust.
Meanwhile, the Johan Rojas experiment is off to a rough start for the Phillies in 2024. That may ultimately mean that Brandon Marsh shifts back to center field on close to a full-time basis, leaving a vacancy in left field that O'Neill could be a good fit for.
O'Neill would also be both an offensive and corner outfield upgrade for the Guardians and Rays, and a relatively cheap one considering he will become a free agent after the 2024 season.
Tanner Scott, RP, Miami Marlins
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Ideal Landing Spots: Dodgers, Braves, Brewers, Padres
Quietly, Tanner Scott led all National League relievers with 2.8 WAR a season ago, according to FanGraphs. He's off to another nice start for the Fish, and as someone in a contract year, he feels all but certain to be moved in advance of the July 30 trade deadline.
Scott is effective against both left-handed and right-handed batters, which might make him the most coveted reliever on the market this summer. Additionally, he's not locked into being a closer, which would be appealing to a team that either already has an established closer or prefers not to have a set ninth-inning option.
Virtually every contending team figures to be connected to Scott at some point this summer because of his versatility.
If the Brewers are buyers, Scott could be an interesting addition. Ideally, he would be setting up for Devin Williams. But if Williams has a setback in his recovery from stress fractures in his back, Scott could also be a ninth-inning option for manager Pat Murphy.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers, Braves and Padres are all teams with a ton of star power who could stand to add another big arm out of the bullpen, even if it isn't in the form of a closer. Scott would fit that bill.
Lane Thomas, RF/LF, Washington Nationals
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Ideal Landing Spots: Dodgers, Phillies, Guardians, Braves, Rays, Royals
Lane Thomas isn't a star, but he's a very solid player who doesn't get enough attention because the Washington Nationals have bottomed out in recent years.
With two highly touted outfield prospects—James Wood and Dylan Crews—likely to debut in 2024, this summer could be the perfect time for general manager Mike Rizzo to move Thomas and maximize the return.
At his best, Thomas isn't on the same level as O'Neill. But only one team can get O'Neill, if the Red Sox move him at all. Thomas also doesn't carry the same type of injury risk that O'Neill does, plus he can't become a free agent until after the 2025 season, so any acquiring team could have his services for two pennant runs.
Many of the same teams listed as suitors for O'Neill are also here. But a few other clubs also make sense as possible landing spots for the 28-year-old.
The Braves have a loaded lineup, and with ace Spencer Strider out for the season, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos may opt to focus the team's resources on pitching this summer. But Thomas could be an interesting platoon partner for Jarred Kelenic in left field, even if he's probably overqualified for that role.
Meanwhile, Thomas would serve as an upgrade in right field for both the Rays and Royals. The fact that he has one more year of arbitration eligibility would probably make him more attractive to those two smaller-budget teams, because he could either be their right fielder in 2025 or a trade candidate next winter.
Josh Bell, 1B, Miami Marlins
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Ideal Landing Spots: Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins
Usually when you're a relatively productive player who changes teams a lot, it's a red flag. But Josh Bell has played for quite a few of the more small-budget teams in the sport, and when those clubs aren't contending, they tend to shed payroll, which Bell has often found himself on the wrong end of.
He spent the first five seasons of his career with the Pirates, but has played for the Nationals, Padres, Guardians and Marlins since the start of the 2021 season. With the Marlins off to a disastrous start in 2024, there's a good chance that Bell—who is in the final season of a two-year, $33 million deal—will be on the move again this summer.
For the second year in a row, Bell's bat is very cold to open the season. But he posted an OPS just shy of .800 in the second half of 2023, helping the offensively challenged Marlins to make the playoffs for just the fourth time in franchise history.
If the Mets hold on to Pete Alonso, Bell could be a fallback option for teams unwilling, for whatever reason, to land Goldschmidt.
There's a good chance that the Cubs, the heated rival of the Cardinals, would be unable to land Goldschmidt. If either Michael Busch or Garrett Cooper prove unable to sustain impressive starts, the switch-hitting Bell could lengthen manager Craig Counsell's lineup.
Bell could also be a fit for the Yankees if Rizzo and/or Giancarlo Stanton don't heat up. Ditto for the Twins with Santana.
Erick Fedde, SP, Chicago White Sox
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Ideal Landing Spots: Pirates, Guardians, Giants, Padres, Astros
Erick Fedde earned a two-year, $15 million deal with the Chicago White Sox this offseason after a dominant season in the KBO that saw him go 20-6 with a 2.00 ERA over 180.1 innings.
A first-round pick by the Nationals in the 2015 draft, Fedde posted a 5.41 ERA and 5.24 FIP across parts of six seasons for Washington. Thus far, he hasn't pitched much better than that, with a 4.30 ERA and unsightly 7.18 FIP across three starts for the White Sox.
But his season in South Korea was so impressive, it's hard not to think that he's grown as a pitcher. If he proves to be a reliable back-end-of-the-rotation starter in his second MLB stint, Fedde will likely draw interest from a variety of teams this summer as a trade candidate.
The White Sox don't need to trade him but probably would be wise to cash in the 31-year-old if he's coveted on a weak market.
Virtually every contending team is looking to add some sort of starting pitcher before the trade deadline. However, smaller-budget teams like the Pirates and Guardians, will probably be the ones that are especially intrigued by Fedde. Acquiring him won't require surrendering a top-five prospect, and he's due an affordable $7.5 million in 2025.
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