Who's In, Who's Out? Final 2024 NBA Playoff Bracket Predictions
With the calendar now turned to April, we're just weeks away from the start of the 2024 NBA playoffs.
Every team is down to just six or seven games remaining on the schedule, although final seeding could very well come down to the final day of the regular season. The top three seeds in the West are all within a half game of each other, while just three games separate the Nos. 2-5 seeds in the East.
Based on current record, remaining strength of schedule (SOS) and other factors, here's a best (and final) guess at how a full 2024 NBA playoff bracket will look.
Note: Remaining SOS rankings via Tankathon. All stats and records accurate as of Wednesday.
East Quarterfinals: (4) New York Knicks vs. (5) Cleveland Cavaliers
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New York Knicks
Current Record/Seed: 44-31, 4th in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 6th overall
In the battle of the bruised, both the Knicks and Cavs could go limping into the playoffs in what would be a rematch of their lackluster first-round series a year ago.
Mitchell Robinson is back for New York, but the team is still waiting on OG Anunoby and Julius Randle. There's been no official timetable for either, with the Knicks even recently changing the diagnosis of Anunoby's absence from "injury management," to "right elbow tendinopathy."
While the Knicks are 15-2 with Anunoby this season, they've only gone 12-15 overall in games that he's missed. With one of the hardest remaining schedules in the NBA, it's hard to envision New York climbing past the No. 4 seed.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Record/Seed: 46-30, 3rd in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 20th overall
Donovan Mitchell is the key to Cleveland staying at No. 3 in the East and making any kind of noise in the playoffs. For now, an ailing knee injury has sidelined him for 16 of the Cavs' past 23 games. In the seven he's actually played in, Mitchell has topped 20 points just once, averaging 16.9 points on 37.1 percent shooting overall.
Evan Mobley and Max Strus have only just returned from their own ankle and knee issues and key 3-and-D forward Dean Wade could miss the remainder of the season with a sprained knee.
Cleveland is just 10-13 since the All-Star break with a defense that's fallen to 22nd overall. Unless Mitchell can get his knee right, a fall in the standings (and a nightmare first-round meeting with the Knicks) seems inevitable.
East Quarterfinals: (3) Orlando Magic vs. (6) Miami Heat
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Orlando Magic
Current Record/Seed: 44-31, 4th in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 9th overall
Going into the season it would have been difficult to imagine the Magic getting the No. 3 seed in the East, especially after finishing 13th in the conference just a year ago. Thanks to injuries to the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and their own strong play, Orlando can make this final standing a reality over the next few weeks.
The Magic have the fourth-highest net rating following the All-Star break (plus-6.5) while only the Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder have topped Orlando's 14 post-break wins.
Unfortunately, jumping up to No. 3 means a first-round matchup with the Miami Heat, possibly the worst draw that the Magic could get.
Miami Heat
Current Record/Seed: 42-33, 7th in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 22nd overall
Winners of seven of their last 10 games, Miami is slowly climbing up the East standings. Like Punxsutawney Phil on Groundhog Day, Jimmy Butler has emerged from his slumber, wiped the sleep from his eyes and is ready for his time of year to shine.
Just a half game behind the Indiana Pacers with a game left to play against them, Miami will eventually claim the sixth seed and avoid the play-in tournament. Orlando is the higher seed here with home-court advantage, but travel won't matter much in this in-state series and the Heat have been even better this season on the road (22-16 against 20-17 at home).
This is a dream first-round matchup for a veteran Heat team, avoiding the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks while getting to face a young Magic team just getting its postseason feet wet for the first time.
East Quarterfinals: (2) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers
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Milwaukee Bucks
Current Record/Seed: 47-28, 2nd in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 5th overall
The Bucks, despite recently losing to the tanking Washington Wizards, blowing a huge lead to the LeBron James-less Los Angeles Lakers and now with Damian Lillard battling a groin injury, are going to finish second in the East by default.
Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks are too banged up to challenge the Bucks, and the Orlando Magic (three games back) are too far away.
A 12-7 record since the All-Star break and 11th-ranked net rating (plus-4.4) don't inspire much confidence that Milwaukee can challenge for a title this season, and the Bucks could be in danger of losing in the first round again, especially with Joel Embiid now back for the Sixers.
Philadelphia 76ers
Current Record/Seed: 41-35, 8th in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 30th overall
Things are certainly looking up for the Sixers as they close out the regular season.
Getting Embiid back now allows him to build up his conditioning before the playoffs, and he'll have the NBA's easiest schedule to do it against. Tasty remaining matchups against the Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, Memphis Grizzlies and Brooklyn Nets should help the Sixers start to climb out of the eighth seed in the East.
We're predicting Philly to finish at No. 7 overall before defeating the Indiana Pacers and securing their spot as the seventh seed in the East. This is vastly important for the Sixers, who should be thrilled to play against Doc Rivers and the shaky Bucks while momentarily dodging the powerhouse Boston Celtics.
East Quarterfinals: (1) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Indiana Pacers
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Boston Celtics
Current Record/Seed: 59-16, 1st in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 27th overall
The Celtics haven't budged from this spot in any of our projections and could give their entire playoff rotation a two-week vacation and still comfortably finish as the No. 1 seed in the East.
A 16-4 record since the All-Star break proves this team isn't slowing down before the start of the playoffs, and this is easily the healthiest team of all the East contenders as well.
While the Pacers are a solid group who beat Boston in two of their five meetings this season, the Celtics have to be thrilled that they avoid the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers in Round 1.
Indiana Pacers
Current Record/Seed: 43-33, 6th in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 15th overall
The Pacers have barely held their heads above the play-in tournament water over the past few months, but Joel Embiid's return to the 76ers and improved recent play from the Heat will eventually cause Indy to fall into the eighth seed by the end of the regular season.
From there we're predicting a loss to the 76ers before a win over the Chicago Bulls or Atlanta Hawks gets Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and company a spot in the East playoffs.
An April 7 game against the Heat (currently just a half game back) looms large for Indiana, a team that's gone only 19-16 with Siakam in the lineup this year.
West Quarterfinals: (4) Dallas Mavericks vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers
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Dallas Mavericks
Current Record/Seed: 45-30, 5th in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 26th overall
The Mavs have used a red-hot offense and a soft schedule to climb up the West standings and will eventually claim home-court advantage in the first round over the Clippers.
Currently just two games behind L.A., the Mavs have won seven of their last eight games while the Clippers are bleeding out defensively and Kawhi Leonard is battling a sore knee.
Luka Dončić is averaging a 30-point triple-double since the All-Star break (33.4 points, 10.0 rebounds, 10.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 39.7 percent from three) and will continue to carry the Mavericks to wins though a favorable remaining schedule.
Los Angeles Clippers
Current Record/Seed: 47-28, 4th in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 7th overall
The Clippers looked like they could challenge for the No. 1 seed in the West, but now they find themselves going on the road to begin the playoffs.
It's a massive fall from grace for a team that's stopped defending as of late (118.0 defensive rating after the All-Star break), with only the tanking Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors (a combined 7-33 since the break) ranking worse than L.A.
With yet another knee issue for Leonard and a tough remaining schedule, the Clippers are fading at the worst possible time.
West Quarterfinals: (3) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (6) Sacramento Kings
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Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Record/Seed: 52-23, 3rd in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 8th overall
The Thunder could still win the No. 1 seed in the West, but nagging injuries to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (quad) and Jalen Williams (ankle) should cause OKC to slide to third in the standings.
Remaining games against the red-hot Dallas Mavericks, Milwaukee Bucks, Sacramento Kings and Indiana Pacers won't help, especially since the Thunder may prioritize the rest and recovery of their star players in preparation of the playoffs instead of chasing the No. 1 seed.
Finishing at No. 3 and with 55-ish wins is still a huge leap for this young franchise, especially since the Thunder will have home-court advantage against the Kings in Round 1.
Sacramento Kings
Current Record/Seed: 44-31, 7th in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 4th overall
The Kings are a respectable 13-8 since the All-Star break and have some key games remaining against the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans, the two teams directly behind and above them in the standings.
The remaining schedule is tough, although New Orleans could slide back into the play-in tournament as Brandon Ingram continues to miss time with a left knee contusion. Assuming Sacramento wins at least a handful of its remaining games, even this should be enough to leapfrog a banged-up New Orleans team.
With the Thunder struggling at times against bigger, stronger opponents, Domantas Sabonis could have a huge series and give Sacramento a real chance at an upset.
West Quarterfinals: (2) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (7) Phoenix Suns
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Minnesota Timberwolves
Current Record/Seed: 52-23, 2nd in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 19th overall
The Wolves have remained in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the West, going an impressive 11-4 without Karl-Anthony Towns this season.
Losing Towns has crippled the offense to an extent, although the defense around Rudy Gobert is still elite. Minnesota is third overall in the NBA in defensive rating (108.3 rating) after the All-Star break.
The remaining game against the Denver Nuggets will be huge, and the Wolves will face a nice tune-up against the Suns in a potential series with a pair of contests against Phoenix before the regular season ends.
Phoenix Suns
Current Record/Seed: 44-31, 8th in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 1st overall
The Suns sit just a single game behind the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 6 seed, although an absolutely brutal schedule to finish off the season will be tough to stack wins against.
In its last six games, Phoenix faces the Timberwolves (twice), Los Angeles Clippers (twice), Pelicans (once) and Kings (once).
The Suns still seem too talented to miss the postseason altogether, however, and will eventually eventually beat the Pelicans in the 7-8 play-in matchup to claim the No. 7 seed in the West playoffs.
West Quarterfinals: (1) Denver Nuggets vs. (8) Los Angeles Lakers
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Denver Nuggets
Current Record/Seed: 53-23, 1st in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 25th overall
Denver is an NBA-best 17-4 since the All-Star break even with Jamal Murray missing six-plus games with a knee injury. Nikola Jokić has stepped up in his absence, averaging 30.2 points on 55.6 percent shooting to go along with 12.8 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.0 blocks.
The Nuggets are second in offense and sixth in defense following the All-Star break, equally destroying teams on both ends while they fight for a second straight No. 1 seed.
We'll gladly take another Nuggets-Lakers playoff series, as LeBron James and company will undoubtedly want revenge after getting swept by Denver in the Western Conference Finals a year ago.
Los Angeles Lakers
Current Record/Seed: 43-33, 9th in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 16th overall
We're projecting the Lakers to remain in the No. 9 seed to end the season, before wins over the Golden State Warriors and New Orleans Pelicans eventually get them the No. 8 seed in the West playoffs.
This isn't your normal eighth seed, of course, as LeBron James and Anthony Davis are as dangerous of a one-two combo as you'll find in the playoffs. Los Angeles is 14-6 with its current starting lineup of D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, James and Davis and would pose a serious threat to Denver's chance of a repeat.
With a 13-7 record after the All-Star break, the Lakers' late-season surge will get them past an injury-riddled Pelicans team and into the playoffs.
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