Position-by-Position Breakdown of 49ers vs. Chiefs Ahead of Super Bowl LVIII
Super Bowl LVIII is a fascinating case study in NFL roster construction in addition to being a star-studded matchup. Both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers have put together impressive rosters, even if they have done it a little differently.
For the Chiefs, they've built around the quarterback. Patrick Mahomes might not be the MVP every year, but he's proved himself time and time again in the postseason as the best quarterback in the league.
The Niners have done a great job of building the kind of infrastructure needed to be elite even if they don't have an elite quarterback.
Both teams were able to run through the playoffs and win their respective conference. The question of who has the better roster will be answered on Super Bowl Sunday.
As we prep for the big game, let's take a look at each position group and how the two conference champions match up.
Quarterback
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The difference in roster composition is most obvious at the most important position on the field.
The Chiefs have Mahomes. He's one of the primary reasons they have made six consecutive AFC Championship Games. Mahomes isn't just making a yearly case that he's the best quarterback in the league; he's putting together a Hall of Fame resume before he's even 30 years old.
Mahomes and Andy Reid have forged one of the most successful quarterback-head coach relationships of all time. The coach has allowed Mahomes the freedom to operate in Reid's offense on his own terms, and the pairing already has two Super Bowls.
"He doesn't try to make you be this system quarterback or make you do what his offense wants to do," Mahomes said in a SiriusXM interview (h/t Dan Pompei of The Athletic).
By contrast, the Niners have Brock Purdy. The final pick of the 2022 draft has an improbable story, and the biggest criticism he gets is that he's a "system quarterback." However, it's what head coach Kyle Shanahan loves about him.
"Like, the job of a quarterback is to manage the game, and it is to run the system. The system is what you work on all week. That's what the O-line works on, that's what your five eligibles work on—that's everything. And at quarterback, if you want to be great, you better be able to run that system and you better be able to manage the game," he told reporters earlier this week.
Both are great fits for their team situation, but Mahomes is a force. He's already 14-3 as a starter in playoff games with 39 touchdowns to seven interceptions.
Verdict: Chiefs
Running Backs
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Part of what makes Purdy's job easier is Christian McCaffrey lining up behind him in the backfield.
In an era when the value of running backs has been more questioned than ever, McCaffrey is a true game-changer for the 49ers offense. San Francisco defied conventional wisdom when it gave up multiple draft picks to acquire CMC last season, but he's paid off in a big way.
McCaffrey is No. 1 in the league in yards created, which accounts for how many yards a runner earned over the expectation based on blocking and situation. According to Player Profiler, McCaffrey has created over 1,200 yards this season and has more evaded tackles (77) than any other running back in the league.
CMC could probably stop playing running back tomorrow and still carve out a career as a receiver. No back had a higher target share this season, and he rewarded the Niners with 564 receiving yards.
The Chiefs have taken a much different approach to the running back position. They will rely on 2022 seventh-round pick Isiah Pacheco. He has run the ball well throughout the playoffs, racking up 254 yards on the ground in the Chiefs' three playoff contests.
However, he doesn't add a ton as a receiver, and he certainly isn't nearly as dynamic as McCaffrey.
The Niners also have one of the best fullbacks in the game in Kyle Juszczyk, while Pacheco (toe/ankle) and receiving back Jerick McKinnon (groin) are both listed on the injury report.
Verdict: 49ers
Wide Receivers
3 of 9
The Kansas City Chiefs receiving corps has been a talking point all season, and it has mostly been for frustrating reasons.
Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney came into the season as young receivers with draft pedigree who didn't contribute much. Marquez Valdes-Scantling had just 315 yards as one of the few veterans of the group. Kansas City had the highest drop percentage in the league.
Fortunately for the Chiefs, Rashee Rice has blossomed into a No. 1 type of receiver. From Week 11 (the week after Kansas City's bye) to Week 17 (his final game of the regular season), he was ninth among all receivers in PPR fantasy football points.
Rice has continued to produce in the playoffs. He was the only Chiefs wide receiver to have more than two catches in the AFC Championship Game.
While the Kansas City wide receiver group consists of a burgeoning young talent surrounded by underwhelming options, the 49ers have a dynamic duo in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
Both receivers went over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Samuel missed two games and had 892 receiving yards, but his 225 rushing yards put him over the milestone. Meanwhile Brandon Aiyuk built on his breakout 2022 campaign with 1,342 receiving yards on 105 targets.
The best stat that sums up just how good Aiyuk has been is that he's one of only six receivers who saw 100 targets and averaged over 10 yards per target.
He also leads that group by a wide margin with 12.8. The next closest is Nico Collins at 11.9.
Aiyuk and Samuel alone give the Niners an easy win here, and that doesn't even account for Jauan Jennings, who has been a strong blocker and has three years of experience with the Niners.
Verdict: 49ers
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Tight Ends
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This matchup gives us two of the best tight ends in the game, with Travis Kelce anchoring the Chiefs passing game and George Kittle playing a critical role for the Niners.
Kittle was named first-team All-Pro this season, while Kelce was not named to the first or second team. There might have been some Kelce fatigue involved in that decision, though. The tight ends finished first and second in receiving yards among tight ends, and Kelce has four All-Pro nominations already.
Ultimately, we're talking about two of the best tight ends of all time.
If this were just based on the regular season, then Kittle would get the nod. Not only did he have more receiving yards this year, but he's also an elite blocker who can serve as an additional lineman for the 49ers' dominant ground game.
The 34-year-old Kelce failed to hit the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in seven years.
It's hard to ignore what he has done in the playoffs, though.
In three playoff games, he has 23 receptions for 262 yards and three touchdowns. Kittle has played less of a role in the passing game with six catches for 108 yards and a touchdown in two postseason contests.
Let's call it even.
Verdict: Tie
Offensive Line
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Given the talent of both defensive lines, offensive line play is going to have a huge impact on this game.
The 49ers have the best lineman. Even at 35 years old, Trent Williams continues to set the bar for elite tackle play. He's a dominant run blocker and hasn't given up a sack all season, according to Pro Football Focus.
There are some vulnerabilities on the line for the Niners, though, specifically the right tackle spot. Colton McKivitz has given up nine sacks and was tied for the seventh-most blown blocks on the season, per Sports Info Solutions.
The Niners have improved their right guard situation by moving Jon Feliciano there at the halfway point of the season. However, the interior is far from elite. Shanahan does a lot with his scheme to protect the group, but they will have to play well on Sunday to win.
The Chiefs group doesn't have a lineman who can go block for block with Williams, but they have done a good job, considering the degree of difficulty within their scheme.
Tackles Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor have combined to give up seven sacks by PFF's numbers, which is still fewer than the combined total of Williams and McKivitz.
The strength of the Chiefs offensive line is on the interior, though. Joe Thuney's status for the game is still in doubt, but Humphrey was PFF's fourth-ranked center while Smith was its seventh-ranked guard.
Overall, the Chiefs unit is better because it has fewer liabilities.
Verdict: Chiefs
Defensive Line
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A strong pass rush and a defensive line that can hold up at the point of attack are essential for contending teams. Both the Chiefs and 49ers have made finding defensive line talent a priority when building their defenses.
That's especially true of the 49ers. They signed Javon Hargrave this offseason and traded for Chase Young at the deadline.
But it hasn't necessarily led to an increase in production. The name recognition on the defensive line has been stronger than the numbers they've posted. The Niners were 17th in pressure percentage but were seventh in sacks with 48 on the season.
Nick Bosa is the focal point for the Niners. He is one of the few edge defenders in the league who is in the top 20 for both pass rush and run-stop win rate. As a team, the Niners have well-rounded win rates, ranking 12th in pass rush and 10th in run stop.
The Chiefs have the more productive pass-rush numbers. They are second in the league in pressure percentage and had 57 sacks. However, they also blitz at a much higher rate (34.1 percent vs. 18 percent).
Chris Jones is the star. He's the only Chief who makes an appearance on the win-rate leaderboards, and he's arguably the best interior defender in the league.
However, the Chiefs' win rate numbers aren't that great. As a team they are 20th against the pass and last against the run.
The Niners are winning a lot more with their front four, while the Chiefs have an aggressive defense that gets a lot of pressure because they are bringing blitzes.
Verdict: 49ers
Linebackers
7 of 9
Given how good both teams have been at running the ball and the caliber of tight ends, the linebackers can't be overlooked Sunday. Both linebacker units will have tough assignments.
The Chiefs have developed some depth during the season. They can play a four-man rotation that includes Willie Gay, Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal. The group has been effective at blitzing, sharing eight sacks and 26 total pressures.
They've been strong in coverage, too. Bolton is the only one who has been charged with giving up a passing touchdown. However, the concern is how they've played against the run. The Chiefs are 28th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush this season, per SumerSports.
The Niners aren't all that much better at 25th, but they have a legitimate star in the middle of the defense in Fred Warner. The All-Pro linebacker's coverage in the middle of the field against Kelce is one of the most fascinating individual matchups.
According to Next Gen Stats, Warner had the second-lowest EPA allowed per target over the middle of the field among off-ball linebackers in the league.
They also have a high-caliber sidekick for Warner in Dre Greenlaw. Warner went out of his way to give credit to Greenlaw for their shared success this season. He is second on the team with a combined 120 tackles.
The Chiefs have the depth, but it's hard to top the Warner and Greenlaw pairing.
Verdict: 49ers
Secondary
8 of 9
Both teams find themselves playing for a Lombardi Trophy, in part, because of a great secondary.
In a Super Bowl with storylines all over the place, it's been a bit lost that Charvarius Ward will be on the opposite side of the Super Bowl LIV matchup. He left the Chiefs and wound up signing with the Niners and has had the best season of his career this year.
Quarterbacks have a 64.5 passer rating when targeting him, and he doubled his career interception figure with five picks this year.
He's the star of the group, but the whole unit has put together a strong campaign. It was fourth in passer rating allowed at just 79.7 on the season. It led the league in interceptions with 22 and had 84 pass breakups.
It will make life difficult for the Chiefs passing game.
The 49ers receivers aren't in for a picnic either. Kansas City coordinator Steve Spagnuolo gives his defensive backs a difficult assignment, often playing man in a blitz-heavy scheme, and they do a great job with it.
Trent McDuffie was an All-Pro slot cornerback, but he can also play on the outside. He ranked fourth among all cornerbacks graded by PFF. L'Jarius Sneed has a strong argument as Kansas City's best defensive back, though.
According to Next Gen Stats, Sneed lined up against A.J. Brown, DJ Moore, Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson on 65 percent or more of their routes in games this season and allowed just one reception to each.
The degree of difficulty within the Chiefs scheme gives them the slight nod over a very talented 49ers secondary.
Verdict: Chiefs
Final Score
9 of 9
49ers: 4
Chiefs: 3
Ties: 1
This exercise just goes to show how good of a matchup fans will be treated to Sunday in Las Vegas.
Both teams have taken different approaches in building a Super Bowl contender, but the results have spoken for themselves on their road to this game.
The 49ers hold a slight edge on overall roster strength, but the Chiefs have the advantage at quarterback and the offensive line. Both can tend to carry a little extra weight.
Add in the X-factor of both teams having strong coaching staffs with a lot of experience, and this is the pinnacle of professional football.
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