NFL Playoff Picture 2024: Wild-Card Odds, Picks and Matchup Scenarios
The Buffalo Bills have been playing in playoff-type games for the last month.
The Bills went from 6-6 and outside the playoff picture to an 11-6 division winner in a five-week span that featured wins over the Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins.
Josh Allen and Co. are one of the best equipped teams to perform well in the NFL postseason because of that stretch and their lengthy playoff experience under head coach Sean McDermott.
Buffalo is projected to have the easiest wild-card weekend matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Bills have their incredible form, a great home crowd and the weather on their side, while Pittsburgh will be without T.J. Watt and will start Mason Rudolph at quarterback once again.
A Buffalo win could set up another chapter of the Bills-Chiefs rivalry. Kansas City plays a banged-up Miami Dolphins team on Saturday night.
The No. 2 seed in each conference plays the highest remaining seed in each bracket, so that would pit the Bills and Chiefs against each other, while the No. 1 seed faces the lowest remaining seed in the divisional round.
Wild Card Odds
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Saturday, January 13
Cleveland (-2.5) at Houston (4:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
Miami at Kansas City (-4.5) (8 p.m. ET, Peacock)
Sunday, January 14
Pittsburgh at Buffalo (-10) (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Green Bay at Dallas (-7.5) (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit (-3) (8:15 p.m. ET, NBC)
Monday, January 15
Philadelphia (-3) at Tampa Bay (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Pittsburgh at Buffalo (-10)
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Buffalo has too much going in its favor.
The Bills have not lost since Thanksgiving weekend and their matchup against the Steelers is the easiest among the six home teams on wild-card weekend.
T.J, Watt's absence should allow James Cook to find more holes on the ground, and it will help Josh Allen find more freedom in the pocket.
Pittsburgh has other pass-rushers it can throw at Allen, but none of them affect the game in the same manner as Watt.
Buffalo's defense could be the more impactful defensive unit on Sunday against the Rudolph-led Steelers.
The Bills have not allowed more than 22 points during their five-game winning streak and they held the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins under 20 points. They also held their last four opponents under 300 total yards.
Pittsburgh is on a three-game winning run of its own, but that is far less impressive than Buffalo's streak because it beat a depleted Cincinnati Bengals team in Week 16 and the Baltimore Ravens' reserves in Week 18.
The Steelers' passing attack could be hindered by winds of up to 50 miles per hour and a below-freezing game-time temperature.
Buffalo's opponents struggled to run the ball over the last month, and if Rudolph can't connect with George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, it could be a very long afternoon for the Steelers offense in upstate New York.
The 10-point spread seems high for a wild-card matchup, but everything seems to be playing in Buffalo's favor for a big win.
Miami at Kansas City (-4.5)
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Kansas City can take the first step in setting up another playoff battle with the Bills by winning on Saturday night.
The Chiefs come into wild-card weekend rested and healthy, which is a massive factor in the matchup with the Miami Dolphins.
Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce all received Week 18 off, while Miami was forced to get through the season finale against Buffalo without Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle.
Mostert and Waddle should play on Saturday night, but they are not at 100 percent, and that could mean an increased focus goes to Tyreek Hill against his former team.
Tua Tagovailoa may not have many drives to sling the ball to Hill if Kansas City controls the contest through Pacheco.
Miami's front seven has been decimated by injuries and the Chiefs could try to wear down the Dolphins through their No. 1 running back, who had 100-yard performances in two of his last three games.
Pacheco could be used more than usual because of the frigid conditions expected at Arrowhead Stadium and because of the lack of trust in Kansas City's wide receivers.
Andy Reid and his staff may more inclined to achieve success on the ground so that the offense is not forced into long second-and-third downs due to the lack of production outside of Rashee Rice at wide receiver.
Rice and Kelce will make a few big catches throughout the game, but the impetus should be on the run and wearing down a Miami defense without Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips.
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