NFL Week 18 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars' Outlooks

It's the final week of the NFL season, which is something of a minefield in terms of player prop bets.

With so many teams that have already clinched playoff berths resting their starters, not to mention two games being played on Saturday, you have to look a little harder to find the value props in this week's matchups.

Lucky for you, we've gone ahead and done the work. The following player props are centered on teams that still have something to play for, so you can feel confident that these players will be suiting up on Sunday.

Justin Jefferson over 93.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

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MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - DECEMBER 31: Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings warms up prior to a game against the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

There are a handful of clinching opportunities on the table for the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18, but all of them hinge on the offense generating enough firepower to beat the Detroit Lions—the Vikings will need their own victory as well as a couple other key losses to earn a playoff spot.

That's, of course, where Justin Jefferson comes in. With 118 receiving yards in this game, Jefferson would reach 1,000 on the season. He's topped this line of 93.5 yards four times this season, but remember also that he's only played in nine games.

Per Fantasy Pros, since Week 15, Jefferson has earned a 29.4% target share, a 47.9% air-yard share and a 36.9% first-read share. And the Lions are coming off a Week 17 game against the Dallas Cowboys in which they gave up 227 receiving yards to CeeDee Lamb alone.

Jefferson can be the steadying but explosive force Nick Mullens needs.

Mike Evans Anytime TD (-105)

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TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 31: Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) during the NFL Football match between the Tampa Bay Bucs and New Orleans Saints on December 31st, 2023 at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Week 18 is crucial for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; they control their own destiny, with a win on Sunday not only clinching a playoff berth but also securing the NFC South. Even if they, somehow, fall to the 2-14 Carolina Panthers, they can still get into the postseason with a New Orleans Saints loss or tie.

In 16 games this season, Evans has 13 touchdowns, the most of any NFL receiver. Another one would tie his single-season career high.

If you needed any more convincing, the Panthers have allowed the second-most red zone touchdowns this season, while Evans leads Tampa Bay with an almost 30% target share inside the red zone. That's not a good combination for Carolina.

The last time these two teams played, Evans went off for seven receptions and 162 receiving yards, with one touchdown. Bet on him to do it again in the most crucial game of the year for the Bucs.

Khalil Shakir over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

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ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 31: Khalil Shakir #10 of the Buffalo Bills warms up prior to a game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

In the AFC East, everything comes down to Week 18.

The Buffalo Bills can clinch the division with a win over the Miami Dolphins and can secure a playoff spot with a tie or with a Jacksonville Jaguars loss or tie.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have already punched their ticket to the postseason but can secure the division with a win over or a tie against the Bills.

This is a show up and show out situation for Buffalo, and if the offense is going to generate some action, it will likely need to get Khalil Shakir involved. Though he doesn't always command the most targets, he has been making the most of his opportunities, bringing in four of four targets in Week 17 and three of four in Week 16.

Shakir has topped this line in each of his last two games and in seven games so far this season. He draws a good matchup in Miami this week with starting corner Xavien Howard out.

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Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.

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