NFL Picks Week 18 Best Early Player Props to Bet Before Odds Shift
With several playoff spots and a couple of division titles still up for grabs, Week 18 should be a terrific one for NFL fans.
Not every team will be playing to win, of course, as many are already locked into postseason positions. However, there are multiple critical games on the schedule, including Saturday's battle between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts—a game that will send the winner to the postseason.
And fans looking to make some of those mostly meaningless games a little more interesting can always toss a player prop or two into the mix. Below, we'll dive into some of our favorite matchups of Week 18 and examine some player props to consider based on the early odds.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
Mason Rudolph over 194.5 Passing Yards
1 of 4
While the Pittsburgh Steelers need a win (plus help) to stay in the wild-card hunt, the game means nothing for the Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore has already announced that starting quarterback Lamar Jackson won't play this week. Presumably, other Baltimore starters will rest as well, which is part of the reason to like the over for Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph.
Pittsburgh appears poised to move forward with Rudolph for the rest of this season and into the playoffs, if applicable. Even if they get up early, the Steelers will likely want to keep Rudolph in a rhythm in case they do make the postseason—a win plus a loss by the Buffalo Bills or Jacksonville Jaguars would make it happen.
And Rudolph has done a solid job of pushing the ball downfield against starting defenses over the past two weeks. Against the Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks, he threw for an average of 282 yards and for no fewer than 274.
Expect Rudolph to hit the over here. He is -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to do it.
Gardner Minshew Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
2 of 4
A win will send the Colts to the postseason, and it could give them the AFC South division title—if the Jacksonville Jaguars also lose on Sunday.
Indianapolis can also get in with a tie plus a Pittsburgh Steelers loss or tie, but you can bet that the Colts will be fully focused on beating their division rivals on Saturday night. They're likely to lean on quarterback Gardner Minshew to do it.
Minshew has been more than serviceable as a replacement for injured rookie Anthony Richardson (shoulder) this season. Attacking Houston through the air is also the best strategy for the Colts in this one.
While Houston has allowed the fewest touchdown passes in 2023, it ranks 27th in net yards per pass attempt allowed. Moving the ball through the air will be much easier than testing a Texans run defense ranked third in yards allowed.
Minshew is +130 (bet $100 to win $130) to throw at least two touchdowns, something he's done four times this season.
Devin Singletary Over 61.5 Rushing Yards
3 of 4
While the Texans will certainly trust quarterback C.J. Stroud and the passing game against Indianapolis, they should look to attack Indy on the ground as well.
The Colts defense has been better on the back end and is one of the more opportunistic units in the league this year. Their defense ranks 17th in passing yards allowed and only ninth in passing touchdowns allowed. However, it ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed and 29th in rushing touchdowns allowed.
Indianapolis has surrendered more than 110 rushing yards in eight of its last 10 games.
It would behoove the Texans to give running back Devin Singletary a heavy workload in this one. Singletary is coming off a 16-carry, 80-yard performance against a quality Tennessee Titans defense.
Singletary is -115 to hit the over here. He's reached the mark in three of his last four outings, the outlier being a lopsided loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 16.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
James Cook Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
4 of 4
Bills running back James Cook -115 to reach the over for this rushing prop. In a critical showdown with the Miami Dolphins for the AFC East title, he should get there.
The Dolphins run defense has tightened over the second half of the season, but it isn't impenetrable. The Baltimore Ravens, for example, rushed for 160 against Miami in Week 17.
The Bills, meanwhile, have a newfound emphasis on the run after making the change from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady at offensive coordinator. Cook has rushed for at least 70 yards in two of his last three contests.
With Dolphins edge defenders Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb both out for the year, Buffalo should be able to attack the perimeter with the ground game. The Bills should also look to run early and often in order to control the tempo in Miami.
With little reliable depth behind Cook on Buffalo's roster, the second-year back should be in line for a big evening.
Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
