NFL Odds 2023-24: Early Value Picks for the Playoffs Entering Week 18
The AFC wild-card race is down to five teams to fill three spots.
The Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts sit in the remaining two wild-card positions yet to be clinched, while the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers are on the outside.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been lumped into the wild-card conversation entering Week 18 as well because they are just a game ahead of the Colts and Texans in the AFC South.
Jacksonville needs to beat the Tennessee Titans to avoid the chaos, so it seems likely that the No. 4 seed will not change hands.
However, the No. 7 seed could shift over from Indianapolis to Houston in their head-to-head meeting, especially if C.J. Stroud plays like he did in Week 17.
The NFC wild-card conversation is far less chaotic and it just needs one win from the Green Bay Packers to be settled.
The real NFC drama in Week 18 could come from the NFC South, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons are all still alive.
Houston to Make Playoffs (+100)
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The Texans have slightly worse odds to make the playoffs than they do to win the head-to-head battle with the Colts.
A win over Indianapolis likely gets the Texans into the postseason, so the easier move may be to bet them to make the playoffs.
Houston lost to Indianapolis back in Week 2 when Stroud was still figuring out his grasp on the offense.
The Texans are far better suited to win a potential winner-take-all matchup on Saturday than they were in their first clash with the Colts.
Stroud played well in his return from a concussion in Week 17. He also received a ton of defensive support, which will be vital to take down the Colts.
Houston held the Titans to three points and 187 total yards. A similar performance on the road in Indianapolis should move the Texans to 10 wins and cash their playoff prop.
New Orleans to Make Playoffs (+250) & Win Nfc South (+350)
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New Orleans' most likely path into the postseason is through the NFC South title.
The Saints sit ninth in the NFC at 8-8 behind the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks in the wild-card race.
They are one game down in the conference record tiebreaker to both the Packers and Seahawks, so they would need a win over the Atlanta Falcons and potentially some help elsewhere to deal with tiebreakers.
While it may seem unlikely, the Saints have to root for the Carolina Panthers to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A Saints win and a Bucs loss hands New Orleans the NFC South title.
A bet on the Saints to make the postseason should coincide with a bet to win the division because that scenario just needs one loss for the Saints to benefit.
New Orleans won three of its last four games and should take care of a struggling Atlanta team at home, which would also eliminate the Falcons from the playoffs.
The Saints should at least take care of their end of the bargain, and if Carolina pulls off a miracle at home, they would cash both of these props that have solid value.
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