NFL Week 17 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars' Outlooks

We've reached the penultimate week of the NFL season, and the action is nonstop; this week sees games being played on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday, with Monday Night Football having been moved to Saturday to avoid a conflict with the Rose Bowl.

There are 14 games on Sunday's slate, with no shortage of player props to choose from. This week we're looking at a handful of high-value props, including some eye-popping plus money.

Some of the props we've singled out this week assume that players who have been heating up recently will continue to do so; another predicts that a player whose team has been in a slump will turn things around.

Let's break down three value props ahead of Week 17.

Travis Kelce over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - DECEMBER 25: Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs warms up prior to a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on December 25, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

The Kansas City Chiefs have endured some adversity late in the season, dropping three of their last four. And as the team has gone, so too has its star tight end, Travis Kelce; in his last two games, Kelce has totaled fewer than 50 yards, and he hasn't found the end zone since Week 11.

However, in Week 17, Kelce and the Chiefs will face the Cincinnati Bengals, who are giving up an average of 256.1 passing yards per game, fifth most in the league. The Bengals defense is also allowing 11.6 yards per completion, the most of any team.

Kelce has topped 65.5 yards in seven games this season. It's likely he does it again in Week 17, and you can take advantage of a high-value line.

Aaron Jones Anytime TD (+130)

Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

GREEN BAY, WI - DECEMBER 17: Running Back Aaron Jones #33 of the Green Bay Packers runs with the ball during the second half of an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lambeau Field on December 17, 2023 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Buccaneers beat the Packers 34-20. (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

Aaron Jones had his biggest game of the season last week in the Green Bay Packers' win over the Carolina Panthers, with 127 rushing yards on 21 carries. He's not likely to have another big day, yardage wise, against the Minnesota Vikings, who are one of nine teams in the league giving up less than 100 rushing yards per game. But at plus money, an anytime touchdown for Jones is a good prop.

Jones can find the end zone through the air as well as on the ground; so far this season, he has one touchdown reception and two rushing scores. He hasn't recorded a touchdown since Week 9, but remember that he missed Weeks 12 through 14.

With tight end Luke Musgrave and wide receiver Christian Watson doubtful to play and wideout Dontayvion Wicks questionable, Green Bay is even more likely to lean on Jones to put points on the board against Minnesota.

DJ Chark Anytime TD (+500)

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - DECEMBER 24: DJ Chark Jr. #17 of the Carolina Panthers celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Bank of America Stadium on December 24, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

If you thought the line for an Aaron Jones anytime touchdown was a high-value prop, just take a look at the plus money for DJ Chark.

Chark has five touchdowns on the season so far, but to make this prop even more intriguing, two of them came in last week's game against the Packers. That's not something you should expect him to replicate this week, but it's important to know Chark also led the Panthers in targets, with eight.

In Week 17, Chark and the Panthers face his former team in the Jacksonville Jaguars. They're giving up 2.7 touchdowns per game.

To tempt you to pull the trigger on this prop, Chark's two targets inside the red zone last week were the only ones among any of the Panthers pass-catchers.

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Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.

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