Where Do the Joe Flacco-Led Browns Rank in AFC's Best After Clinching Playoff Berth?
The Cleveland Browns picked up their 11th win on Thursday night, thanks in large part to a massive first half from quarterback Joe Flacco.
Flacco, who wasn't on an NFL roster a month and a half ago, torched the Jets defense for 296 yards, three touchdowns and an interception before intermission. Before Thursday, the Jets hadn't allowed a 280-yard passer in a game this season.
While both Flacco and the Browns offense cooled off in the second half, Cleveland did enough to cruise to a 37-20 victory. And with the win, the Browns are in the AFC dance with a 4-1 record under Flacco's guidance and looking like a legitimate threat to the conference's division leaders.
The unknown is just how big of a threat Cleveland can be. Here, we'll examine the AFC's top contenders, examine their strengths and flaws heading into January and rank the six teams with the best chances of making a run to Super Bowl LVIII.
AFC Playoff Picture
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Division Leaders
1. Baltimore Ravens 12-3*
2. Miami Dolphins 11-4*
3. Kansas City Chiefs 9-6
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 7-8
Wild Card
5. Cleveland Browns 11-5*
6. Buffalo Bills 9-6
7. Indianapolis Colts 8-7
In the Hunt: Houston Texans (8-7), Cincinnati Bengals (8-7), Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
* = clinched playoff berth
6. AFC South Champion: Jaguars, Colts or Texans
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The winner of the AFC South will host at least one playoff game, and right now, there's a three-way tie atop the division.
The Jacksonville Jaguars hold the lead due to tiebreakers, but the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans share Jacksonville's 8-7 record. While the eventual division winner—and to be clear, more than one AFC South team could make the playoffs—could win multiple playoff games, all three feel vulnerable right now.
The Texans are set to get back star rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud this week, which is huge. However, Houston won't have standout receiver Tank Dell (leg fracture), and it's saddled with the league's 26th-ranked pass defense.
The Colts have been rolling with journeyman quarterback Gardner Minshew in the wake of Anthony Richardson's season-ending shoulder injury. Minshew has been good enough more often than not, but he can make mistakes in bunches (9 INTs, 5 lost fumbles) and Indy's defense has often been a liability.
The Colts rank 28th in rushing yards allowed, 22nd in total yards allowed and 28th in points allowed.
Jacksonville, the preseason division darling, might be in the most trouble of this bunch. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is dealing with an AC joint sprain, and he's regularly tasked with covering up Jacksonville's warts.
The Jaguars lack receiver depth after placing Christian Kirk on injured reserve, and they have the league's 30th-ranked pass defense.
This isn't to say that the rest of the conference can take these teams lightly—the Colts knocked off the top-seeded Ravens early in the year—but a deep playoff run feels unlikely for this trio.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
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It's very close between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, and Buffalo has more momentum right now. Kansas City has lost four of its past six, and its lack of wide receiver talent and depth has really become an issue down the stretch.
For the fist time in years, this doesn't feel like a Chiefs team Patrick Mahomes can simply pull out of the muck. For the first time since Mahomes became the full-time starter, Kansas City will likely have to win playoff games on the road.
Some might give Kansas City a slight edge over Buffalo for two big reasons, though. For one, Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid are the most experienced quarterback-coach tandem when it comes to the conference.
That experience can carry Kansas City a long way when it's win-or-go-him time in January. Yes, there's value in having been there and done that.
Kansas City also has a fantastic defense, one ranked third in passing yards allowed, second in total yards allowed and second in points allowed. While the Chiefs have struggled against the run (28th in yards per carry allowed), their defense is capable of keeping things close against virtually any opponent.
However, we don't know how Mahomes and Co. will respond to a long postseason road trip or if Mahomes and Travis Kelce can generate enough offense against a defense like Cleveland's or Baltimore's.
Right now, Kansas City feels like a team that will have to fix a lot of offensive issues and perhaps get a little lucky to go on a deep run. The Chiefs can clinch their division this week, but they could realistically lose to any wild-card team that comes to Kansas City.
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4. Buffalo Bills
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We'll give the Bills a slight edge over Kansas City, and not because the Bills won the head-to-head matchup in the regular season. That's part of it, but Buffalo has been the better team down the stretch.
Since losing to the Denver Broncos in Week 10 and firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, the Bills have looked like a different team. Interim coordinator Joe Barry has placed a newfound emphasis on James Cook and the running game, in turn, taking some of the pressure off of Josh Allen's shoulders.
Allen is still one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in football, but when he presses, he is prone to mistakes. During Buffalo's 5-5 start to the season, Allen committed 14 total turnovers. He's had only four in the Bills' 4-1 run since.
The Bills rank sixth in scoring and fourth in points allowed, and they are a team that can hang with anyone in the AFC when everything is going right. However, they've experienced a slew of defensive injuries—Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones are among the biggest names—and they remain inconsistent on that side of the ball.
Against the Los Angeles Chargers and backup quarterback Easton Stick last week, for example, the offense stumbled just a bit, and Buffalo narrowly escaped with a 24-22 victory.
Buffalo has been much more consistent at home, and its chances of reaching the Super Bowl will be much higher if it manages to wrest the AFC East away from the Miami Dolphins.
If the Dolphins lose to the Ravens this week and the Bills beat the New England Patriots, their Week 18 matchup will be for the division title.
3. Cleveland Browns
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It's hard not to consider the Browns a bigger threat than the Bills, even with Buffalo making a late surge. For Cleveland, things don't have to be perfect to earn a victory. In fact, they've very rarely been close to perfect.
The Browns came into Week 17 with a league-high 32 giveaways. Their list of players on injured reserve—which includes Nick Chubb, Deshaun Watson, Jack Conklin, Jedrick Wills, Dawand Jones and Jakeem Grant Sr.—is beyond extensive.
Cleveland started Thursday's game without their normal kicker, Dustin Hopkins, and regular punter, Corey Bojorquez, and without No. 1 receiver Amari Cooper. The Browns then lost No. 2 receiver Elijah Moore to a concussion.
Yet, head coach Kevin Stefanski keeps coaxing wins out of this squad. Having Myles Garrett and a defense that ranks No. 1 in yards allowed has certainly helped, and Flacco has energized the passing game.
The Browns have had some bad losses this season, notably against the Ravens, Broncos and Los Angeles Rams. They've also beaten quality teams like Baltimore, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and the San Francisco 49ers.
However, if the Browns are going to go deep, they must fix a few issues. They need to field a more consistent ground game, they have to learn to protect the football (three turnovers on Thursday), and they need to get the defense to play on the road like it has at home.
Cleveland has surrendered an average of 29.4 points on the road.
And the Browns will need to get more good than bad from Flacco in every game. His play has been a roller coaster of jaw-dropping throws, touchdowns (13), baffling misfires and interceptions (8).
The fact remains, though, that the Browns have won 11 games, they're on a four-game winning streak, and they've already beaten the Ravens in Baltimore. If things start going perfectly for the Browns, they're capable of beating the teams that reside just a tier above them.
2. Miami Dolphins
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The Dolphins are one of only three teams in the AFC that still has a shot at the No. 1 seed, along with the Ravens and Browns. However, Miami needs to win out and get two straight losses by Baltimore.
Heading into this week's matchup with the Ravens, though, the Dolphins feel like the second-best team in the conference—and not simply because they have the second-best record.
We have to start with Miami's offense, which is collectively as fast as any in the NFL. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are nearly impossible to cover one-on-one, and Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane and Jeff Wilson Jr. form a track team of a backfield.
Over the back half of the season, Miami's defense has started to complement the offense.
Getting cornerback Jalen Ramsey (knee) off injured reserve has played a huge role in that. With the front seven learning to play a physical style of football, Vic Fangio's unit has become a problem for a lot of opponents.
Miami's lone loss over the past six weeks was a stunner against the Tennessee Titans. During that stretch, the Dolphins D has surrendered an average of 18.3 points.
However, that Tennessee loss is a big reason why the Dolphins have been hard to take seriously. Before last week's win over the Dallas Cowboys, Miami hadn't beaten a team that currently holds a winning record. It can lose to mid-level teams like Tennessee, and injuries are a problem.
Waddle isn't expected to play this week because of a high-ankle sprain, the offensive line has been shuffled repeatedly because of injuries, and pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips is out for the year.
The Dolphins are dangerous. We'll learn over the next two weeks whether Miami deserves to truly be feared in the AFC playoffs.
1. Baltimore Ravens
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The Ravens have emerged as the team to beat in the AFC, and possibly in the NFL. They're tough, physical, make few mistakes on defense and have the new MVP front-runner in Lamar Jackson at quarterback.
Perhaps most importantly, Baltimore isn't simply coasting into the postseason. This is a squad that still feels like it has plenty to prove and one that will take motivation wherever it can find it.
Before embarrassing the 49ers on Monday night, the Ravens felt disrespected by their underdog status. They remain eager to show what they can do on the biggest stage.
"I believe we play better under pressure," Jackson said, per ESPN's Jamison Hensley.
Jackson and the Ravens have long found ways to field a strong rushing game, and their passing attack has taken off under offensive coordinator Todd Monken—and with new receivers like Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers in the fold.
With the league's top-ranked rushing offense, fifth-ranked passing offense in net yards per attempt and first-ranked scoring defense, Baltimore has few glaring weaknesses. The Ravens, who have lost just one game on the road in 2023, can also travel.
If there's one issue that opponents might be able to exploit in the playoffs, it's Baltimore's inconsistent run defense. The Ravens rank 22nd in yards per carry allowed, and opposing ground games played roles in losses to the Browns and Colts during the season.
Still, the Ravens are on the doorstep of the AFC's No. 1 seed for a reason. They're the most complete team in the conference, and as their win over the 49ers showed, they might just be the best team in football.
*Statistics from Pro Football Reference
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