X-Factors for the 2023 College Football Playoff Semis
The stage is set for the 2023 College Football Playoff semifinals.
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl.
Those two high-powered matchups on New Year's Day will determine who faces off in the CFP National Championship Game on Jan. 8, and while there are some obvious stars on all four rosters, it could boil down to a few X-factors that determine who comes out on top.
Ahead, we've highlighted each team's biggest X-factor—one on offense and one on defense—to serve as a preview of what's to come as we get ready to slap a bow on the 2023 college football season.
Rose Bowl: QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama
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Starting with a 155-yard, four-touchdown performance on the ground against LSU in Week 10, Jalen Milroe turned the page from a forgettable first half of the season to emerge as one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country.
He threw 10 touchdown passes and just one interception over the team's final four games, which included road wins over Kentucky and Auburn and an SEC championship victory over Georgia to secure a spot in the playoff field.
Quarterback went from a huge question mark for the Crimson Tide after Milroe was benched following a Week 2 loss to Texas to a legitimate strength as the season unfolded, and he will need to shake off the cobwebs quickly against one of the best defenses in the country.
That said, the Wolverines have not faced a dual-threat signal-caller like Milroe this season, especially down the stretch when they beat the likes of Drew Allar (Penn State), Taulia Tagovailoa (Maryland), Kyle McCord (Ohio State) and Deacon Hill (Iowa) who had a combined 17 rushing yards on the year.
Rose Bowl: S Caleb Downs, Alabama
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True freshman safety Caleb Downs racked up a team-leading 99 tackles from his strong safety spot in the secondary, and his ability to provide run support is going to be crucial against a Michigan rushing attack that is the foundation of their offense.
A 5-star recruit and the top overall safety in the 2023 recruiting class, Downs has made an immediate impact in Tuscaloosa.
While it is often the elite cornerback tandem of Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold that commands the headlines, he could make the biggest impact of anyone on the defensive side of the ball for Alabama.
His 64 solo tackles ranked second in the SEC and helped him earn a spot alongside McKinstry and Arnold on the first-team All-SEC squad en route to Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year honors.
Rose Bowl: RB Donovan Edwards, Michigan
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The Wolverines have one of the nation's best running backs in Blake Corum, who finished ninth in Heisman Trophy voting after rattling off 1,028 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns as the focal point of the Michigan offense.
However, don't sleep on Donovan Edwards potentially making an equally big impact in the Rose Bowl.
The former 5-star recruit tallied 382 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground, but he was also a weapon in the passing game, hauling in 30 receptions for 249 yards, compared to just 14 catches for 82 yards from Corum.
Alabama has a star-studded secondary, so J.J. McCarthy and the Michigan passing game could opt to attack the team's linebacking corps by making Edwards a focal point of the passing game out of the backfield.
The big-play potential is there from a guy who spent much of the season in the shadow of his backfield mate.
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Rose Bowl: DL Kenneth Grant, Michigan
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The key for Michigan defensively is going to be making Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe uncomfortable in the pocket.
"His completion percentage drops from 71.1 percent in a clean pocket to 45.8 percent when under pressure," wrote Zach Shaw of 247Sports.
That makes the entire Wolverines defensive line a major X-factor, but singling out one player from that group, it's massive defensive tackle Kenneth Grant who will set the tone up front in the trenches.
The second-team All-Big Ten selection tallied 26 tackles, four tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks, but it's the attention he commands with his 6'3", 339-pound frame that helps open things up for the rest of the team's pass-rush.
Sugar Bowl: WR Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington
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On almost any other team in college football, Ja'Lynn Polk would have been the team's offensive star with 60 receptions, 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.
However, in a high-powered Washington Huskies aerial attack led by star quarterback Michael Penix Jr., he is the No. 2 wide receiver behind standout Rome Odunze.
It will be up to Polk to help spread out the Texas secondary and prevent them from double teaming Odunze on a regular basis, but he will need to find his early season form to give the Huskies the best chance of advancing to the title game.
Polk tallied at least 100 receiving yards six times through the team's first eight games, but he has just 164 total receiving yards through the team's last five games. He was held without a catch against Oregon State and Washington State.
Sugar Bowl: LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, Washington
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The Washington Huskies defense ranks 90th in the nation with 396.9 yards allowed per game, and they will be tasked with slowing down a Texas Longhorns offense that was among the best in college football at 475.9 yards per contest.
A big game from star linebacker Edefuan Ulofoshio could help give the Huskies defense a spark after he earned first-team All-Pac-12 honors.
With 83 tackles, 53 solo tackles, six tackles for loss, three sacks and one interception, he filled up the stat sheet all season, and one of his best games of the year came against a high-powered Oregon offense.
In the first meeting between the two Pac-12 standouts on Oct. 28, he racked up 12 tackles, 10 solo tackles and one forced fumble, and a similar impact in the Sugar Bowl could help turn the tides.
Sugar Bowl: RB CJ Baxter, Texas
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Longhorns starting running back Jonathon Brooks suffered a torn ACL against TCU in Week 11, putting an abrupt end to a breakout season that saw him pile up 1,139 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns through 10 games.
That has vaulted true freshman CJ Baxter to the top of the depth chart, and the former 5-star recruit and top running back in the 2023 recruiting class now has a chance to make a major splash on the national stage.
He had 20 carries for a season-high 117 yards against Iowa State in his first start following the Banks injury, but Jaydon Blue led the team in rushing the following week. The duo more or less split carries against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship.
Here's predicting that it's Baxter who comes forward with a big performance on the ground in the Sugar Bowl.
Sugar Bowl: CB Jahdae Barron, Texas
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Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze was a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award given to the nation's top receiver, alongside Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. and LSU's Malik Nabers. Thus, controlling him will undoubtedly be a focal point for the Longhorns defense.
Odunze finished with 81 receptions, 1,428 yards and 13 touchdowns, eclipsing 1,000 yards for the second year in a row as the top target for Michael Penix Jr. in a high-powered passing game.
Jahdae Barron is the top cornerback on the Longhorns roster and will be tasked with the challenging assignment of slowing him down, but he has done a great job all season limiting big plays.
According to Pro Football Focus (via Seattle Sports), the Longhorns' most-targeted defensive back has surrendered a 55.6 completion percentage and only one touchdown this season while tallying 55 tackles, six pass deflections and one interception.
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