NFL Picks Week 17: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Score Bets
Another fun NFL slate is at our doorstep, and it kicks off with the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets on Thursday night.
While the Jets have little to play for, the Browns are facing a win-and-in scenario—and this is far from the only playoff-relevant game of Week 17. The Baltimore Ravens can clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed with a win over the Miami Dolphins, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can clinch the NFC South with a win over the New Orleans Saints.
The Kansas City Chiefs can clinch the AFC West with a win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Below, we'll examine some of our favorite matchups of Week 17 and a few early over/under lines to consider.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Jets and Browns over 36 Points
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Early in the season, the Browns-Jets matchup would have seemed like a sure defensive battle. However, a lot has changed since September.
The Jets defense has been far less consistent than it was a year ago, when it ranked fourth in both points and yards allowed. New York still has talent on that side of the ball but it ranks 14th in points allowed and has surrendered 58 points over its last two games.
Cleveland's offense, meanwhile, has found new life with veteran quarterback Joe Flacco at the helm. Thanks to the Flacco-led surge, the Browns now rank 10th in scoring and they've produced no fewer than 20 points in each of their last three games.
And while Cleveland's defense still ranks first in yards allowed, the offense's tendency to commit turnovers has often led to easy points for the opposition. Expect all of these trends to continue on Thursday night, with players like Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall all having spotlight moments.
Considering Cleveland games haven't produced a points total below 40 since Week 11, this line is simply too low to consider the under.
Patriots and Bills over 40.5 Points
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This is another surprisingly low line, especially considering how the Buffalo Bills offense has played recently.
Under interim coordinator Joe Brady, and with running back James Cook seeing a prominent role, Buffalo has averaged just over 28.2 points over the last five games. While the New England Patriots have a stout defense, it is unlikely to completely corral Josh Allen and Co. in Buffalo.
The Bills defense is still injury-hampered and continues to have issues against the run. New England's offense has been better with Bailey Zappe under center and has averaged just over 21 points per game with him as the starter.
All of this should add up to more scoring than one might have expected early in the season. It's worth noting, though, that when these two teams first faced off in Week 7, they produced 54 total points.
It would not be a shock to see the rematch produce a similar result. It will be a surprise if this line doesn't rise in the coming days.
Lions and Cowboys over 53.5 Points
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This is an incredibly high over/under, but there are reasons to buy into the over here. The first is that the Dallas Cowboys are playing at home, where Dak Prescott and the offense have been virtually unstoppable.
At home this season, the Cowboys have averaged just under 40 points per game. They have topped the 40-point mark in four of seven home outings.
The Detroit Lions defense, meanwhile, has recently shown a lot of concerning cracks. Detroit has surrendered at least 26 points in all but one game since its Week 9 bye.
The Lions offense, however, remains one of the league's best, and it's capable of offsetting its defensive issues. With a strong running game centered around Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, the Lions are poised to give Dallas problems.
Run defense remains one of the Cowboys' biggest liabilities, and fans should expect plenty of offensive back-and-forth because of it. This game has the potential to be an offensive track meet, not unlike Dallas' game against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13.
The Cowboys-Seahawks contest finished with 76 total points, and this one could very easily be close to that.
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