Is 2024 NFL Offseason QB Carousel the Most Important in Recent Memory?

In 2018, Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith made high-profile moves to new teams, while five quarterbacks were selected with first-round draft picks.

In 2020, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers changed teams, Teddy Bridgewater signed a big deal in Carolina and four quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the draft.

In 2022, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson were part of blockbuster trades, while Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan and Baker Mayfield were also dealt to new teams and Kenny Pickett joined the NFL quarterback fraternity as a first-round selection.

In 2023, the league saw Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo move, while Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson joined the fray via the first round of the draft.

Those were big offseasons for the league's quarterback carousel, which of late has spun with more more mass and velocity than ever before.

And yet, the wildest carousel yet might be looming this upcoming offseason—at least in terms of quantity, as nobody of Brady's or Rodgers' ilk will likely be migrating in 2024.

As the regular season winds up, let's break it down.

5 Veterans Who Could Be on the Move

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GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 17: Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals warms up prior to an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers at State Farm Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

Kirk Cousins: The 35-year-old impending free agent certainly could return to the Minnesota Vikings, but it's possible the team either opts for someone new or is outbid for Cousins' services. He has never been consistently strong enough to be considered elite, but he is starter-worthy and had an 18-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio along with a triple-digit passer rating before suffering a season-ending injury to his Achilles' tendon in Week 8.

Baker Mayfield: On a one-year prove-it deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the former No. 1 overall pick has generally proven it. Mayfield, 28, has 24 touchdowns to eight picks and has done a lot to help the flawed Bucs remain in contention. He's coming off a tremendous performance in which he became the first opposing quarterback ever to post a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field. Barring the franchise tag, the not-exactly-cash-rich Bucs might have to fight to keep him on the roster.

Kyler Murray: The former No. 1 overall pick's dead-cap-heavy contract means he certainly cannot be released, but the Rodgers situation in the 2023 offseason shows almost anybody can be traded regardless of how daunting the deal might be from a contractual standpoint. Murray just hasn't gotten it done in five years with the Arizona Cardinals and has not impressed coming off a torn ACL down the stretch this season, and it's possible the Cards will decide to go in another direction or at least entertain offers for the still-only-26-year-old two-time Pro Bowler.

Justin Fields: The 2021 No. 11 overall selection has definitely had his moments and is a unique offensive talent, but his passing numbers still haven't taken off in Year 3. The Chicago Bears might be losing patience considering they've been victorious in just eight of his 35 career starts. There's a decent chance the team gives the 24-year-old one more shot in 2024 without exercising his fifth-year option for 2025, but the draft route will be a strong temptation, and Fields could hit the trading block if so.

Ryan Tannehill: There's a good chance the now-demoted 35-year-old fails to land a starting job in 2024, or ever again. But if most or all of the guys listed above stay put and some of the guys listed in a moment stay in school, Tannehill's stock could skyrocket. He's had some strong seasons as a starter and is almost certainly done with the Tennessee Titans following the emergence of Will Levis.

5 Rookies Who Could Go Off the Board in Round 1

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LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 18: USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) walks onto the field during a college football game between the UCLA Bruins and the USC Trojans on November 18, 2023, at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Caleb Williams: Considered by some to be a generational talent, the electric three-year starter out of USC is the current favorite to be selected first overall.

Drake Maye: The North Carolina product appears to offer the complete package in terms of size, speed and arm talent. The latest big board from the BR NFL Scouting Department ranks him third in this class, behind only Marvin Harrison Jr. and Brock Bowers but ahead of Williams.

Jayden Daniels: The athletic five-year starter coming out of LSU has seen his draft stock skyrocket in a lot of places following an incredible Heisman Trophy-winning campaign in the SEC. Plenty of mock drafts have him joining Williams and Maye in the top 10.

Bo Nix: A wild card who only really found his groove when he escaped the SEC, Nix did put up a ridiculous 40 touchdowns to three interceptions in his fifth season as a college starter in 2023.

Michael Penix Jr.: Can he stay healthy? If so, the intuitive and reliable Washington product could take off in the right spot at the next level. Some mock drafts are starting to include him and/or Nix in the upper part of Round 1.

5 Teams That Could Shake It All Up

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CLEVELAND, OHIO - DECEMBER 17: Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears walks off the field after losing to the Cleveland Browns 20-17 at Cleveland Browns Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

We just listed 10 potential 2024 starters who could become available one way or another this offseason, and there could always be a surprise or two bringing that number well into the double digits. We also haven't even touched on dynamics related to young, thus-far-failed first-round picks Daniel Jones, Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett (it appears Jordan Love has done enough to earn his 2024 role), plus whatever's going on with Geno Smith and whatever the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders decide to do with their in-flux quarterback situations.

Here are five teams that could send shockwaves to the quarterback carousel.

Chicago Bears: This one's real obvious, because they have Fields under contract but with limited financial commitment while also currently holding the No. 1 pick as well as another selection in the top five.

Arizona Cardinals: Currently slated to pick third overall, they might be tempted to bail on Murray if they have a shot at Williams or Maye.

New England Patriots: If they're giving up on Mac Jones after another disappointing season, the Pats could have a real shot at Williams or Maye, while somebody else might believe they can get more out of Jones in a new environment.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Could they decide to move on from Pickett after just two seasons? The bar is high and the tolerance for mediocrity presumably low in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers could be tempted to go back to the mid-first-round well while parting with their 2022 mid-first-rounder.

Washington Commanders: A lot of dominoes could depend on the Commanders, who may just stick with somewhat-encouraging first-year starter Sam Howell but could give in to the temptations associated with a top-five draft pick (they're currently penciled into the No. 4 spot).

Decisions and/or events in Minnesota, Tampa, Arizona, Atlanta, Seattle, and New York (with the Giants) could also have tremendous impacts on the '24 carousel—not to mention a potential surprise retirement from someone like Matthew Stafford or Derek Carr. But for now, the focus oughta be primarily on the five teams listed above.