NFL Playoff Scenarios 2023-24: AFC, NFC Week 16 Picture, Postseason Predictions

As Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season nears its conclusion, we're starting to see some clarity with the playoff picture.

There's plenty still to be decided, of course, but four teams—the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens—have officially secured their tickets to the big dance. Meanwhile, six bottom-feeders (three in each conference) have already been denied entry.

Everything else, though, is still up in the air, so let's dig into all the remaining congestion.

Playoff Picture

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ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 17: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys warms up prior to a game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images)

AFC

No. 1 Seed: Baltimore Ravens 11-3

No. 2 Seed: Miami Dolphins 10-4

No. 3 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs 9-5

No. 4 Seed: Jacksonville Jaguars 8-6

No. 5 Seed: Cleveland Browns 9-5

No. 6 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals 8-6

No. 7 Seed: Indianapolis Colts 8-6

8. Houston Texans 8-6

9. Buffalo Bills 8-6

10. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-7

11. Denver Broncos 7-7

12. Las Vegas Raiders 6-8

13. Los Angeles Chargers 5-9

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NFC

No. 1 Seed: San Francisco 49ers 11-3

No. 2 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles 10-3

No. 3 Seed: Detroit Lions 10-4

No. 4 Seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-7

No. 5 Seed: Dallas Cowboys 10-4

No. 6 Seed: Minnesota Vikings 7-7

No. 7 Seed: Los Angeles Rams 7-7

8. New Orleans Saints 7-7

9. Seattle Seahawks 6-7

10. Atlanta Falcons 6-8

11. Green Bay Packers 6-8

12. New York Giants 5-9

13. Chicago Bears 5-9

AFC Scenarios, Predictions

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DETROIT, MICHIGAN - DECEMBER 17: James Cook #4 of the Buffalo Bills scores a touchdown during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Highmark Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. The Bills beat the Cowboys 31-10. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images)

If the Ravens win out, the No. 1 seed is theirs. As straightforward as that sounds, though, they have a daunting trip to San Francisco on the schedule for Week 16, then immediately come home to host the second-seeded Dolphins.

However, Baltimore could slip up and still sit atop the conference. That's because Miami's remaining slate might be even trickier. That trip to Baltimore is sandwiched between visits by the 10-win Cowboys and the surging Bills, who have three victories and a road overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles to show for their last four outings.

A late Miami skid may sound opportunity's knock for Kansas City, which has two sub-.500 opponents and the Joe Burrow-less Bengals left on the schedule. Then again, it's not like the Chiefs are riding a momentum wave at the moment with three losses in their last five outings.

It's too early to call this race, beyond recognizing these three teams will make the playoff cut. So, too, should the Browns, who have (at least) a game up on all of the other Wild Card hopefuls and have won two in a row on the strength of consecutive 300-yard performances by Joe Flacco.

The final three spots could do a number of different ways, but our crystal ball sees the Jaguars, Colts and Bills rounding out the playoff field.

NFC Scenarios, Predictions

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GLENDALE, AZ - DECEMBER 17: Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers warms up before kickoff against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

After becoming the first team to clinch a playoff berth, the 49ers then were the first to lock up a division title. The NFC West champs have not only won six straight, they've secured each of these triumphs by double-digits.

They'll hold court with the similarly scorching Ravens on Monday night, but fate is firmly in their hands. They have head-to-head victories over both the Eagles and Cowboys, plus they have two fewer conference losses (one) than the Lions (three). San Francisco is in the driver's seat.

Philadelphia enters Monday's collision with Seattle with a tiny bit of relief based on Dallas' loss to Buffalo on Sunday. Still, a slip-up Monday could be costly for the Eagles, who enter the game on the heels of back-to-back losses to the 49ers and Cowboys, each of which was decided by 20-plus points.

The Lions have alternated wins and losses over the last four weeks, and their remaining schedule features a pair of bouts with the Vikings sandwiched around a Week 17 road clash with the Cowboys.

The Buccaneers are technically tied with the Saints atop the NFC South, but Tampa has the edge for now thanks to a Week 4 win in New Orleans. These teams will tussle again in Week 17, though.

That game could go a long way toward determining how the bottom-half of the NFC bracket shakes out. We'll back the Bucs in this race and reward the final two playoff berths to the Rams and Vikings.