Patriots vs. Steelers: Updated Odds, Money Line, Spread, Props to Watch for TNF
The Pittsburgh Steelers will look to continue their playoff push when they open Week 14 by hosting the New England Patriots on Thursday night.
The Patriots have long been out of the playoff mix and have one of the league's most underwhelming offenses. The Steelers have also struggled offensively, and are set to start backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky in the wake of Kenny Pickett's ankle surgery.
This game may not be a headliner for casual NFL fans, but it will provide a few wagering opportunities that could make it a little more interesting.
Below, we'll dive into the latest odds, lines and player props to consider for Thursday Night Football.
See all the Thursday Night Football bets at DraftKings.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
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Date: Thursday, December 7
When: 8:15 p.m. ET
Live Stream and TV: Prime Video (Fox in local markets)
Line: Pittsburgh -6
Over/Under: 30 Points
Money Line: Pittsburgh -250 (bet $250 to win $100), New England +205 (bet $100 to win $205)
Preview and Predictions
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Fans should not expect an offensive battle in this one.
While the Steelers made the decision to fire offensive coordinator Matt Canada a couple of weeks ago, that move hasn't translated into improved scoring. The offense has looked more in rhythm under Mike Sullivan, but Pittsburgh has scored just 26 points over the past two games.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have been even worse offensively but have fielded a solid defense as of late. New England lost its last three games despite allowing just 26 points during that span.
Pittsburgh is likely to be the more aggressive team, as Mitch Trubisky has a strong arm and plans to test the Patriots' secondary.
"I'm going to be aggressive. I'm going to take care of the football, and we've got to play better as an offense," Trubisky said, per Dale Lolley of the team's official website.
That doesn't mean that Pittsburgh will find immediate success. New England faced a very good Los Angeles Chargers offense last week and allowed nothing more than a pair of field goals.
Rhamondre Stevenson (high-ankle sprain) is out for New England, which means that Ezekiel Elliott is set to be the lead back. This should give Pittsburgh, Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris the edge in the ground game.
Expect a lot of ball-control offense from both teams, and the one that makes the fewest mistakes to come out on top. We'll give the Steelers the edge there because the defensive tandem of T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith can force miscues in bunches.
A defensive score could make the difference for Pittsburgh.
Prediction: Steelers 13, Patriots 9
Bailey Zappe Under 156.5 Passing Yards
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Because of Stevenson's injury, the Patriots may have to lean a little heavier on the pass this week. However, that does not guarantee that Zappe will approach 160 passing yards. In fact, Zappe isn't even guaranteed to start just yet.
New England has been quiet about its quarterback plans in recent weeks, and there's a chance that Mac Jones reenters the lineup, either at the beginning of the game or midway through, should Zappe struggle.
The Patriots are also dealing with numerous injuries at wide receiver. Demario Douglas has been out with a concussion, while DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster were both limited this week.
Add in Zappe's tendency to hold the ball and take sacks (five in Week 13), and hitting the over against an aggressive Steelers defense is going to be a struggle.
Zappe is -120 to hit the under here.
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Ezekiel Elliott over 58.5 Rushing Yards
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Stevenson's absence means that Elliott should see the bulk of the backfield work or New England. Given New England's underwhelming quarterback play and Pittsburgh's aggressive front, Elliott should see carries early and often.
This is a relatively large yardage total for Elliott, who has only topped 50 rushing yards three times this season. The 28-year-old hasn't been especially efficient this year either, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.
At that rate, Elliott would need to see at least 16 carries to hit the over, but that's not at all unrealistic. The Patriots may even ride him a little more against a Steelers defense that has allowed 4.3 yards per carry on the season.
The Arizona Cardinals found success on the ground last week, especially after Steelers linebacker Elandon Roberts exited with a groin injury. Arizona ran for 150, while James Conner carried 25 times for 105 yards.
Whether it leads to a win or not, riding Elliott and the ground game should be New England's strategy. Elliott is -115 to hit the over.
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