Super Bowl Favorite 49ers, 2023 MVP Front-Runner Brock Purdy Are an NFL Perfect Storm
Following a dominant victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers have become the clear-cut Super Bowl favorite. Meanwhile, their quarterback has become an MVP favorite in plenty of spots, while their running back is in the mix for Offensive Player of the Year.
The Niners have now won back-to-back road games against high-quality opponents by a combined margin of 73-32. They've won four straight games by at least 13 points each, and their average margin of victory on the season is a ridiculous 13.6 points.
A strange midseason three-game losing streak is long in the past and appears to be an aberration. It's even possible that it worked to further strengthen a team that is uniquely awesome.
Let's break it down.
Kyle Shanahan's Magic Touch Is Undeniable
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It's arguably only a matter of time for 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, who coordinated the Atlanta Falcons offense in Super Bowl LI and coached this San Francisco team to Super Bowl LIV but has yet to capture a Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Now, the offensive genius is getting the absolute most out of Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and a stellar group of pass-catchers and blockers for an offense that is averaging a by-far-NFC-best 6.5 yards per play.
Purdy has been so successful despite coming into the league as a seventh-round afterthought in part because Shanahan has put together an offense that limits the amount of processing the quarterback has to do on the fly. He gets key weapons into space, maximizing yards after the catch, and he simultaneously challenges defenses both vertically and horizontally with complex pre-snap motion and creative play design that might be unmatched in today's NFL.
If a coach can be in his "prime," this is it for the 43-year-old Shanahan following 16 seasons as either an offensive coordinator or head coach. It's a beautiful thing.
Brock Purdy Is Making History
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Purdy has done his part rather consistently. He's clearly a diamond in the rough coming out of the seventh round of last year's draft, as he leads the league in completion percentage, touchdown rate, success rate, yards per attempt, passer rating, QBR, net yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, and he ranks second in completed air yards per throw.
He's a prime MVP candidate, which is astonishing and unheard of when you consider that he was Mr. Irrelevant less than two years ago. Purdy is on pace to post the ninth-highest qualified single-season passer rating (116.1) in league history, and said rating is even better (124.5) on deep passing attempts.
Brian Sipe and Kurt Warner are the only quarterbacks who won MVP despite being drafted lower than Purdy or not drafted at all. At 24, Purdy could become the fourth-youngest quarterback ever to win the award. A seventh-round sophomore as the league's most valuable player is borderline ludicrous, which is why Purdy and the 49ers are so special.
"Brock is fun to call plays for because you can get aggressive, and he'll take it if it shows because that's what you work on," Shanahan said earlier this season. "You talk all week, but you're also not scared to call it because if it doesn't show, he's not usually not going to force it. He's going to see right away what you've been talking about, know that's not the look, and get the ball to someone underneath. And when we get balls to people underneath, we usually make some big plays, too, because we got some talented guys who can run with it."
Christian McCaffrey Is Also an MVP Candidate
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Leading that pack of "talented guys who can run with it" is Christian McCaffrey, who leads all NFL running backs by a 300-plus-yard margin with 1,461 scrimmage yards and has scored a league-high 17 touchdowns in 12 games.
The 27-year-old is on pace to post a top-10 all-time running back fantasy points total for the second time in his career, which could give him a shot at Offensive Player of the Year or even MVP consideration.
"He does everything for us, obviously," Purdy said of McCaffrey earlier this season. "Can run the ball, can run routes out of the backfield, can line up as a receiver and run routes. He does everything, man. So we're thankful for him. He's a dog. He takes some hits, but, man, he just keeps going. And all you got to do is get the ball to that guy in space and he does the rest."
McCaffrey is consistently a star through the air and on the ground, taking tons of pressure off of Purdy and fellow elite weapons Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. That quartet has already scored a combined 35 touchdowns this season, and their presence helps explain why a by-far-league-low 1.9 percent of Purdy's passes have been dropped. This machine is extremely well-oiled.
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This Could Be Unprecedented
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What's wild is we haven't even touched on the 49ers defense, which is powered by elite veterans Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave and leads the NFC in both points allowed and takeaways.
Put it all together, and you really do have something special.
The 49ers are within reaching distance of leading the league in both points per game and points allowed per game, which is extremely rare.
Some modern comparisons to this 49ers team?
The 2017 Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles also ranked in the top five on both sides of the ball and were led by a phenomenal second-year quarterback in Carson Wentz who benefited greatly from the offensive mind of Doug Pederson, but Wentz was a No. 2 overall pick.
Russell Wilson was a sophomore star quarterback for the 2013 Super Bowl-winning Seattle Seahawks, with Pete Carroll serving in the "Kyle Shanahan role" in that situation. That team had the league's best defense but wasn't as electric or prolific on offense.
And then there were the famous 1999 St. Louis Rams and even more famous 2001 New England Patriots, both of whom were quarterbacked by major draft afterthoughts early in their respective careers, both of whom had legendary coaching minds, and both of whom had extremely high rankings on both sides of the ball on route to the Super Bowl.
But even those champs didn't register quite as high as the 49ers have a shot at doing in 2023.
What's Next?
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So, what does the path forward look like for this emerging Super Bowl favorite? The good news is that the tough part of the Niners' regular-season schedule is over. Three of their final five games come at home, and only one comes against a team with a winning record (Baltimore in the Bay Area in Week 16).
Unfortunately, the 49ers still need to gain a game on the Eagles to take the top spot in the NFC and earn a critical first-round bye. But San Francisco should be expected to run the table from here, and the Eagles are in the midst of a brutal stretch that takes them to Dallas and Seattle over the next two weeks.
I know, any given Sunday, yada yada yada. But it sure feels as though it's all falling into place for this one-of-a-kind NFL contender.
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