NFL Odds Week 14: Early Locks and Best Bets on the Schedule
December has arrived, and we're entering the final stretch of the 2023 NFL playoff push. Week 14 could bring a little more clarity to the postseason picture, and several marquee matchups are on the upcoming slate.
Week 14 will also feature the final bye weeks, with both the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders out of action.
While it has become incredibly difficult to predict how games will unfold—few probably saw the Green Bay Packers knocking off the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs in back-to-back weeks—a few of the early lines stand out.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Houston Texans -6 at New York Jets
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The Houston Texans are more than a good story. Thanks to the consistently great play of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and the strong coaching of DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have emerged as a legitimate playoff threat.
The New York Jets are almost the exact opposite. New York cannot get anything close to resembling steady quarterback play, and on Sunday, Tim Boyle was benched for journeyman Trevor Siemian. New York's game planning, especially on offense, has been questionable at best.
The biggest issue for Houston right now is that standout rookie receiver Tank Dell suffered a fractured fibula in Week 13, which will leave Stroud playing without one of his top targets. However, Houston should still get enough out of its offense to find the end zone a couple of times—as it did against a feisty Denver Broncos team on Sunday.
The Texans improved defense, meanwhile, should create problems for whoever the Jets trot out under center. Houston picked off Russell Wilson three times in Week 13, and it has forced nine turnovers in its last five games.
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 Versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Don't look now, but the 6-6 Atlanta Falcons have taken control of the AFC South. It's been a battle, and Atlanta has dealt with some shuffling at the quarterback position, but the Falcons finally seem to have found a recipe for success.
Second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder has played the game-manager role well enough over the last couple of weeks, and Atlanta has leaned into Bijan Robinson its seventh-ranked scoring defense.
The Falcons can take a firmer grasp on the division this week by winning their rematch with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa has been a feisty competitor, but it is entirely too one-dimensional on offense and has shown some serious cracks on defense.
The Buccaneers rank dead last in yards per carry, and they've lost two of their last three. They struggled to knock off the one-win Carolina Panthers on Sunday, and they'll need a mistake-free game from Baker Mayfield to have a chance in Atlanta.
The Falcons are built to win ugly, which is exactly what they did in the first meeting with Tampa, claiming a 16-3 victory. Expect a similar result in Round 2.
New Orleans Saints -5.5 Versus Carolina Panthers
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New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr is in concussion protocol, which means we could see a combination of Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill in Week 14.
While this isn't ideal for New Orleans, Hill and Alvin Kamara should provide enough of a ground attack to handle the one-win Carolina Panthers. Carolina's defense has actually been fairly strong against the pass, but it has allowed an average of 4.2 yards per carry.
The Panthers offense, meanwhile, didn't get a major spark from the firing of head coach Frank Reich or quarterbacks coach Josh McCown. Interim coach Chris Tabor did find success by leaning on Chuba Hubbard and the ground game, but rookie quarterback Bryce Young again underwhelmed.
Young finished 15-of-31 for 178 yards and an interception.
New Orleans should key in on the run and force Young to beat its defense. Though they fell behind early, the Saints put up 28 points against a very good Detroit Lions team in a valiant comeback effort. New Orleans should play from ahead in this one, and it's hard to envision the Panthers keeping up.
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