NFL Picks Week 13: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
Week 13 opened with a Thursday night thriller between the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks. it was a back-and-forth battle that saw Dallas finally grasp momentum in the fourth quarter.
The Cowboys managed to stay undefeated at home, but they failed to cover against a hungry Seahawks team. It was a bit surprising, given how dominant Dallas has been in Arlington, but Seattle was also the first team with a winning record that the Cowboys have beaten since the 1-0 New York Jets in Week 2.
Perhaps the Cowboys never should have been truly trustworthy against Seattle. Fortunately, there are a few more Week 13 favorites who are enticing with the current lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Dolphins -9.5 at Commanders
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Like the Cowboys, the Miami Dolphins have largely feasted on sub-.500 teams. However, the 4-8 Washington Commanders are exactly that, and Miami should win big.
This is a poor matchup for the Commanders on many levels. For one, their pass defense has been extremely underwhelming and ranks 30th in yards allowed. Washington also ranks 32nd in points allowed.
Trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the deadline certainly didn't do anything to help Washington's defense, and the Commanders will struggle to contain Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Secondly, quarterback Sam Howell has been fantastic at times but mistake-prone. He's tied for the league lead with 13 interceptions. He could end up making multiple mistakes against a Dolphins defense that has dramatically improved since the arrival of Jalen Ramsey.
Over their last four games, the Dolphins have surrendered an average of only 16 points per game while forcing seven turnovers.
Washington lost by 35 to the Cowboys in Week 12. This game might not be quite as ugly, but it should still be a lopsided victory for Miami.
Chiefs -6 at Packers
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The Green Bay Packers and quarterback Jordan Love have looked much better over their last two games. Lave made some eye-popping throws and the defense made some clutch plays in last week's win over the Detroit Lions.
Green Bay will be a challenge for the Kansas City Chiefs in Lambeau.
However, Love is still a relatively inexperienced quarterback going up against Kansas City's third-ranked scoring defense. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense also seemed to find a spark in Week 12, scoring 17 second-half points after going scoreless in the second half in three straight games.
Rookie wideout Rashee Rice may have finally emerged as the No. 2 target behind Travis Kelce.
If Kansas City is finally figuring it out offensively, it's going to be dangerous, and this game could serve as a debut party. The Chiefs are focused, motivated, and Mahomes is eager to play in Lambeau.
"I'm extremely excited for it," Mahomes told reporters on Wednesday.
As long as the line remains less than a touchdown, the Chiefs should cover.
Jaguars -8.5 Versus Bengals
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This is a tricky one, as Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. has been battling a rib injury. He did practice during the week, but that doesn't mean that he'll be at 100 percent against the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals can be feisty, and if Jacksonville is one-dimensional offensively, it could cause problems.
However, Jacksonville still feels like a safe pick here. The Bengals just are not the same team without Joe Burrow, and their defense has multiple cracks that can be exploited. Cincinnati ranks 31st in yards per carry allowed, 32nd in net yards per pass attempt allowed and 19th in points allowed.
In a showdown between Trevor Lawrence and Jake Browning, Lawrence and the Jags should win big.
The question is whether Jacksonville can avoid the potential trap game before a Week 14 road game against the 7-4 Cleveland Browns. After getting blown out by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10, the Jaguars seem to have figured out how to stay focused.
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