NFL Week 11 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars' Outlooks
Four teams are on bye as the NFL heads into Week 11, but there are still plenty of intriguing props to choose from among the other 28 teams taking the field.
The most exciting game on the docket in Week 11 is the Monday night Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. But we also have a handful of division clashes in Steelers vs. Browns, Bears vs. Lions, Titans vs. Jaguars, Giants vs. Commanders, Jets vs. Bills and Seahawks vs. Rams.
Of the non-intradivision games, Cardinals vs. Texans could prove to be one of the week's most exciting as a healthy Kyler Murray faces off against C.J. Stroud, who is two weeks removed from a five-touchdown outing.
Let's break down three of this week's best high-value props.
Baker Mayfield over 1.5 Passing TDs (+154)
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Here's a high-value prop to start us off, with Baker Mayfield at plus money to throw at least two touchdowns.
Mayfield has been a high-volume scorer this season, ranking 13th in passing touchdowns heading into Week 11, with 14. He's also thrown two or more touchdown passes in five games this season, including his last three consecutively.
So why the positive moneyline on this prop? Well, he'll be facing off against the San Francisco 49ers, who kept Trevor Lawrence from tossing a single touchdown last week and have allowed the second-lowest average touchdowns per game, at just 1.6.
And yet, the 49ers have given up an average of two touchdowns per game in their last three and gave up five total in Weeks 7 and 8, losses to the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals respectively. The 49ers secondary isn't an impenetrable fortress, and Mayfield should be able to find the end zone twice through the air against them.
Josh Allen Anytime TD (+140)
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If you're gonna take plus money on any touchdown props, why not choose someone who can find the end zone with his arm and his legs?
There's no question the Buffalo Bills are in a rough stretch, coming off an ugly 24-22 loss to the Denver Broncos in which Josh Allen threw two picks and also fumbled the ball. The 5-5 Bills are falling farther and farther behind the division-leading Miami Dolphins and have to fight to keep their playoff chances alive.
That's why Allen should be aggressive in their Week 11 matchup against the New York Jets. Despite their own woes, the Jets have had a stout scoring defense, allowing 1.7 touchdowns per game on average, the third-lowest in the league.
But even if the Bills can only manage to put six on the board once or twice against the Jets, the odds that it will be credited to Allen, whether pass or rush, are high. Allen has at least one passing touchdown in every game this season, and he's scored on the ground in seven of 10 games, including his last four straight.
Luke Musgrave over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
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If the previous two high-value props have you feeling a little skittish, this one should be much safer. Indeed, the while the negative moneyline for this prop means you'll have to invest a little more upfront, the return feels relatively safe.
The Packers drafted tight end Luke Musgrave this spring not only for his in-line blocking abilities but his potential to stretch the field as a big pass-catcher. At 6'6" and 253 pounds, he has impressive speed for his size, and Love has gotten comfortable trusting him in high-stakes situations, whether it's on deep balls (Musgrave is third among tight ends in deep targets, per FantasyPros) or in the red zone (three targets over his last two games).
Musgrave has surpassed this prop in four of his last five games, and he's coming off a career-high 64 yards in Week 10. His matchup this week couldn't be better as the Packers host the Los Angeles Chargers, who have allowed the most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.
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