Way-Too-Early NFL Overreactions After 2023 Week 1
Say what you will about overreactions in sports, but they're a lot of fun.
A lot of fun to make, a lot of fun to digest, and a heck of a lot of fun to condemn.
We invite you to be our guests in both digesting and condemning these overreactions from a wild first week of the 2023 NFL regular season.
The Cleveland Browns Are the Team to Beat in the AFC North
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The Cleveland Browns made a statement on Sunday.
Forgotten by many in the the stacked AFC North, Cleveland destroyed the twice-defending division champion Cincinnati Bengals.
There are often some aberrations in Week 1, and the Bengals were probably a bit rusty with quarterback Joe Burrow coming back from a calf injury, but 24-3? With Cincinnati's prolific and highly talented offense converting just six first downs the entire game? Not a single team had fewer first downs than that in one game throughout the 2022 season.
This was one of the worst performances on Burrow's career, and a testament to the jolt venerable new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz brings to Cleveland.
This is also quarterback Deshaun Watson's first full season with the Browns. What's scary is that Sunday's performances from Watson, Nick Chubb and the Elijah Moore-led pass-catching corps weren't close to the ceiling across the board.
Three years ago, with a similar core but a worse quarterback and a less experienced coaching staff, Cleveland went 11-5. The Browns definitely have the ingredients to take down the Bengals (as we saw Sunday), the Pittsburgh Steelers (who were bludgeoned Sunday and have major issues) and the Baltimore Ravens (whom we'll talk about next).
The Baltimore Ravens Need to Trade for Jonathan Taylor
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The Baltimore Ravens easily disposed of a bad Houston Texans team at home in their season opener. But it's a lot tougher to gauge that win than Cleveland's, as the Texans are too far from being fully functional.
While it was encouraging to see Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers hook up often in their first outing together, it's discouraging that Jackson was Baltimore's leading rusher on a day in which top running back J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending Achilles injury.
The Browns are for real, the Bengals will bounce back, and the AFC is stacked in general. Baltimore can't afford to put so much pressure on Jackson as a rusher while hoping Gus Edwards and/or Justice Hill can do the job in the backfield.
The team is clearly all-in with Jackson's big new contract. Meanwhile, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported Sunday that the trade talks involving disgruntled Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor are expected to continue even though he has to spend the next three weeks on the PUP list.
Taylor is the type of player who could put Baltimore over the top, and he'd now fill a major need. This is a no-brainer.
The Tennessee Titans Need to Move On From Ryan Tannehill
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The New Orleans Saints were beatable at home in Sunday's opener against the Tennessee Titans. They committed a pair of turnovers, quarterback Derek Carr had a shaky debut, and running back Alvin Kamara was out amidst his three-game suspension.
However, the Titans couldn't take advantage, primarily because quarterback Ryan Tannehill completed only 16 of 34 passes while throwing three interceptions. The Titans ended up wasting a strong defensive performance and a solid game from veteran running back Derrick Henry.
No team's season ends in Week 1, but this version of the Titans won't contend in the tough AFC. The schedule just gets harder with the Los Angeles Chargers, Browns and Bengals on deck for Tennessee.
This should be viewed as a rebuild/retool year for a Titans team that went 7-10 with Tannehill, Henry and Co. last season. They can't afford to enter next offseason with Tannehill slated for free agency and no clear indication as to what they have in 2022 third-round pick Malik Willis and rookie second-rounder Will Levis.
Tennessee should abandon Tannehill now via trade or benching and begin to get a feel for what both Willis and Levis can bring to the table.
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.jpg?w=256 "Cardinals Draft Love Football")
The 2022 Seattle Seahawks Were a One-Year Wonder
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There were clues that the Seattle Seahawks weren't as good as their record would suggest last year. They had a three-game losing streak in December, and breakout quarterback Geno Smith posted a mediocre 83.9 passer rating in his final five regular-season outings.
Smith wasn't the only reason why the Seahawks laid a baffling egg in their home opener Sunday, but he didn't live up to his new three-year, $75 million contract, either. The result was a 30-13 loss to a division rival that has been gutted in recent offseasons and was without its best offensive player in Cooper Kupp.
Only two of Smith's passes resulted in gains of more than 10 yards, as he averaged a horrific 4.3 yards per attempt at home against a good-not-great familiar defense in a big spot. And why should we be surprised? Smith never gained or held a starting job on a consistent basis from 2015 through 2021, and the odds were always against him suddenly becoming awesome at the age of 32.
As it turns out, he didn't. He just got hot for a while and earned a ton of money quarterbacking a so-so team with some choice weapons and an experienced head coach.
The 0-1 Seahawks now have to travel across the country to play a fired-up Detroit Lions team that just beat the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and is operating on extra rest.
It's easy to envision an 0-2 start in Seattle's future, while the San Francisco 49ers look as though they're going to run away with the NFC West in 2023.
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers Are the Team to Beat in the NFC North
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Meanwhile, the NFC North may belong to the Green Bay Packers again.
It often did throughout the Aaron Rodgers era, and there were understandably questions about Green Bay's ability to get back to the top with Jordan Love taking over for Rodgers at quarterback.
In his debut as Green Bay's full-time starter on Sunday, Love threw three touchdown passes despite a lack of stars in the receiving corps. The Packers put up 38 points in a turnover-free road performance against a much improved (on paper at least) Chicago Bears team.
He and Aaron Jones look as though they can complement each other well, and the Packers can offer Love the defensive support to win games even when he's not at his absolute best.
Many figured this division, which went to the Minnesota Vikings last year, might be Minnesota's again, or that the surging Detroit Lions would take over. Some even wondered if the rebuilding Bears might have a shot if quarterback Justin Fields could turn a corner with his arm.
The Lions did beat the Chiefs to kick off the season, but that was still a winnable game for a shorthanded Chiefs team, and it's tougher to trust Detroit than it is to trust Green Bay. Meanwhile, we all saw Chicago embarrass itself Sunday just as the Vikings were upset at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
You have to believe this is Green Bay's division to lose.
The Super Bowl Winner Will Come from the NFC
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The Dallas Cowboys completed the first Sunday of the 2023 NFL season with the annihilation of a division rival that was in the playoffs eight months ago.
Maybe we're giving less credit to Dallas because the offense didn't have to do much against a New York Giants squad that was handing its opponent points all evening as the rain poured down in New Jersey, but a blowout 40-0 victory on the road is still a statement regardless.
The overreaction in this case? The Super Bowl winner is coming from what is often considered to be the weaker of the two conferences.
The NFC doesn't have as much depth as the AFC, but it's clearly top-heavy. Teams like Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore, Kansas City, the Chargers, Buffalo, Miami and the Jets might all beat up on each other, while San Francisco, Philadelphia and Dallas potentially cruise. In the end, they're in much better shape as a result.
Then again, it's only been a week. That's the thing about overreaction.
Fun, though, huh?
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.jpg?w=480 "Cardinals Draft Love Football")
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