10 Possible F.A Cup 3rd Round Upsets

For many fans, the F.A Cup 3rd Round weekend is the highlight of the season.

It is the one weekend where sides from Leagues One and Two and the semi-professional sides get to play the giants of the Premier League and potentially cause a shock.

Under normal circumstances, the teams from the lower leagues would be convincingly beaten but a combination of a poor performance, an inspired opponent, and just a little slice of luck, top flight sides often come unstuck.

So who is most likely to repeat the feats of Hereford, Colchester, and Sutton this year?

Birmingham City V Wolverhampton Wanderers

Why this could be an upset: There may be a division between the two sides but the actual gulf in class is very small. Both are traditionally ‘yo-yo’ teams and could well end up swapping places at the end of the season. Add in the fact this is a local derby and this will be a very tight game.

Birmingham has a squad with plenty of experience at the top level and in strikers Chris Wood and Marlon King have players who can score goals. Wolves have struggled at the wrong end of the Premiership and will not relish a trip to St. Andrews where the Blues are unbeaten this season.

Chances of a shock: High – You could almost make a case for Birmingham as the favourites for this game. Local derbies are normally pretty close but I would expect Birmingham to just edge it.

Barnsley V Swansea City

Why this could be an upset: A league fixture last season, Barnsley have had no problem finding the net this season with strikers Ricardo Vaz Te and Craig Davies scoring nineteen goals between them.

By contrast, Swansea have struggled to find the target and only picked up their first away win of the season on Monday.

A trip to South Yorkshire will be a tricky one.

Chances of a shock: Moderate – Barnsley have stumbled over the Christmas period losing four of their last five games including a remarkable second half collapse at home to Ipswich. Defence seems to be a problem for the Tykes conceding 36 goals this season.

Losing highly rated Jacob Butterfield to injury is a big blow to Barnsley also.

Swansea will definitely start as favourites but Barnsley do have the firepower to cause them problems.

Fulham V Charlton Athletic

Why this could be an upset: Top of League One by five points, Charlton are currently on a roll and will fancy their chances of a win.

Led by Bradley Wright-Phillips’ fourteen goals and backed by Danny Hollands and Johnnie Jackson, Charlton have lost only two games in the league all season and have only failed to score twice. Charlton have also been strong defensively only conceding nineteen goals.

Fulham, by contrast have only managed five win all season and will not relish a competitive London derby.

Chances of a shock: Quite High – Fulham have not had a great season but have gone unbeaten in the last three including games against Chelsea and Arsenal.

This will be a tight game that could go either way that may well be decided by a replay.

MK Dons V Q.P.R

Why this could be an upset: The Dons are on a real high this season. Up to fourth place in League One having scored 47 goals from a number of different players. Jabo Ibehre, Dean Bowditch and Charlie MacDonald have all scored more than five goals providing a number of options up front.

MK Dons have already had success against top flight opposition this season defeating Norwich City 4-0 in the League Cup.

Near the bottom of the Premiership, Q.P.R have bigger games to worry about so the F.A Cup will not be a top priority for them.

Chances of a shock: Moderate – As well as MK Dons are playing, it will still be difficult for them to get a result. Q.P.R should be good enough to just edge this one, possibly after a replay, but do not be surprised if the Dons win.

Norwich City V Burnley

Why this could be an upset: After a slow start to the season, Burnley are starting to come into form winning six of their last eight games. Burnley have plenty of options going forward with Jay Rodriguez and Charlie Austin having scored 22 goals between them this season.

In their win against Q.P.R, Norwich equalled a Premiership record of conceding goals in twenty consecutive games.

Chances of a shock: Quite High – Both sides like to play attacking open football and neither team is particularly strong defensively meaning there should be goals. With Norwich distracted by Premier League survival, Burnley have a good chance of pulling off a shock.

Swindon Town V Wigan Athletic

Why this could be an upset: After a slow start, Swindon have been on fire recently having only lost once in their last thirteen league games and have the best defensive record in League Two having only conceded nineteen goals. Going forward, Matt Ritchie has driven the Robins success.

Swindon have already battled through two higher division opponents in Huddersfield and Colchester proving they will be difficult opposition.

Wigan by contrast have had a tough season and currently lie in the relegation zone. Their priorities lie away from the F.A Cup.

Chances of a shock: Quite High – There may be three divisions separating the two teams but Wigan will not be relishing a trip to the County Ground. A lot will depend on whether Ritchie is still with the club with a lot of speculation he could be on his way out.

I fancy Swindon to edge this one.

West Bromwich Albion V Cardiff City

Why this could be an upset:  In practical terms there is very little that separates these two sides. Cardiff sit third in the Championship and have plenty of top level experience in Kenny Miller and Robert Earnshaw. Peter Whittingham is also having a fine season scoring eight goals, some of them quite spectacular.

West Brom have been inconsistent this year and have a history of losing to lower league teams.

Chances of a shock: High – Cardiff have already had one fine cup run reaching the League Cup Semi-Final and they have a definite chance of an upset. West Brom have a resolute defence but Cardiff have enough forward power to win.

Bristol Rovers V Aston Villa

Why this could be an upset: Rovers are not short on talented players. Wingers Joe Anyinsah and Mustapha Carayol have plenty of ability while Matt Harrold and Scott McGleish are experienced strikers who have consistently scored goals at lower league level.

Aston Villa have not been impressive this season. Manager Alex McLeish has faced much criticism from his own fans for their uninspiring displays and Villa’s pace-based game will be difficult on the bumpy Memorial Ground pitch which Rovers share with Bristol’s rugby team.

Chances of a shock: Virtually Zero – As poor as Villa have been this year, Rovers have been worse. Just one win in the last ten league games have cost Paul Buckle his job and the possibility of dropping out of the Football League.

Villa would have to play very badly to lose this one.

Peterborough United V Sunderland

Why this could be an upset: Peterborough have become something of a statisticians dream having gone 100 league games without a 0-0 draw. The Posh have scored the second most goals in the Championship having only failed to score twice. Emile Sinclair and one time Spurs target George Boyd carry the main threat up front.

Chances of a shock: Moderate – A month ago there would have been a much a greater chance of an upset. Since the arrival of Martin O’Neill, Sunderland have won four of their last six games including a shock win over Manchester City.

As good as Peterborough are going forward, they are defensively vulnerable. Losing key midfielder Grant McCann is a blow too. Sunderland should have enough to win this one.

Arsenal V Leeds United

Why this could be an upset: While nowhere near the team they once were, Leeds are still a difficult proposition for any Premiership side. Manchester United found this out two years ago, and Arsenal last season.

Leeds have been in the top half of the Championship all year and will be led by strikers Alan McCormack and Robert Snodgrass. For all their traditional strength at Elland Road, Leeds have played nearly as well away from home winning five games.

Arsenal’s defeat at Fulham proved once again their defensive and mental weaknesses have not been eradicated. Despite the potential return of Thierry Henry, Arsenal still look lightweight up front without Robin Van Persie who could be rested.

Chances of a shock: Low – Despite having a decent season, Leeds just do not seem to have the quality to seriously threaten Arsenal. I would expect that this year, the Gunners will not need a replay to win this tie.

Other Games

Other than the ten ties listed and the all Premiership fixtures Manchester City v Manchester United and Newcastle United v Blackburn Rovers, here are the further six ties between Premiership and lower league opposition:

Chelsea v Portsmouth - Chelsea may not be in the best form at the moment but Portsmouth’s awful away form should ensure Chelsea win this repeat of the 2009/10 F.A. Cup Final.

Liverpool v Oldham Athletic - Should be a relatively comfortable night for the Reds against a decent Oldham side who do not have enough quality to really threaten.

Everton v Tamworth - It will be a wonderful day out for the Conference strugglers but they do not have a chance at Everton.

Macclesfield Town v Bolton Wanderers - Mediocre League Two takes on mediocre Premiership. Result: A win for the Premiership side in a desperately dull game.

Stoke City v Gillingham - Last year’s F.A Cup finalists have a history of losing to lower league opposition and an in-form Gillingham side will provide a tough test. Expect Stoke to prevail though.  

The Most Important Game of All: Tottenham Hotspur V Cheltenham Town

Why this could be an upset: Cheltenham currently sit second in League Two on a fine run of form. The Rubies have won eight of their nine last nine away games and have lost just once in the league since the middle of September.

Cheltenham have the second best defensive record in League Two, a solid foundation built on the defensive partnership of Alan Bennent, Steve Elliott, and full backs Sido Jombati and Luke Garbutt while the impressive midfield trio of Marlon Pack, Russell Penn, and Luke Summerfield have proven to be one of the best combinations in League Two

Chances of a shock: Low - In reality, Cheltenham have little chance against a Spurs side that is third in the Premiership and playing some fantastic football. However, many of the Spurs first team will be rested and with Cheltenham's defensive solidity, they may be able sneak a result.

In many respects it does not matter so much for Cheltenham fans who will get to see their team play at one of the finest clubs in the country, something that seemed so unlikely in the last few years.

It will certainly be an enjoyable day for 5,000 Cheltenham fans whatever the result and I will be among them!