Predicting Winners of NFL QB Competitions Ahead of 2023 Training Camp

While a decent majority of NFL teams have a quarterback in place for the 2023 season, about one-fourth of the league is still trying to pick a starting signal caller.

In rare cases, a competition isn't viewed as a major issue. Such is life for the San Francisco 49ers, who reached the NFC Championship Game with third-stringer Brock Purdy but return initial 2022 starter Trey Lance. San Francisco can be confident in its eventual decision.

On the other hand, the stakes are much higher for the Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Commanders.

Training camp and the preseason will determine the winners of these competitions. And we have early predictions for them all.

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Bryce Young

Carolina Panthers

Technically speaking, Bryce Young isn't the official starter. But let's be serious, right? Panthers coach Frank Reich elevated Young to QB1 status in June's minicamp, and the franchise didn't put together a blockbuster trade to draft him at No. 1 overall yet name Andy Dalton the starter.

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New England Patriots

One of the more frustrating moments of the 2022 season was the offensive coordinator-less Patriots temporarily bailing on Mac Jones. Bailey Zappe showed he has real upside, but Jones deserves a real opportunity to establish himself. He's set to receive that chance under new coordinator Bill O'Brien, who also coached Jones at Alabama.

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Tennessee Titans

As long as Ryan Tannehill is on the roster, he'll be the starter. Second-round rookie Will Levis, in theory, could supplant Tannehill during the preseason. However, this conversation is more a hypothetical than a genuine competition right now.

Indianapolis Colts

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Anthony Richardson

Soon after the Indianapolis Colts hired Shane Steichen, the team wisely grabbed Gardner Minshew II. He had been the backup quarterback with the Philadelphia Eagles, where Steichen oversaw the offense.

Now, the Colts already had a long-term plan in mind. They selected Anthony Richardson with the No. 4 pick in the draft.

Richardson is the future of the franchise, and he'll presumably end the 2023 season as the starter, too.

But it wouldn't be surprising in the least for Minshew to begin the campaign as Indy's QB1. He knows Steichen's system and can provide Richardson with a bit of additional time to develop outside of the spotlight.

While his physical talent is apparent and impressive, Richardson was inefficient in his time at Florida. He has plenty to learn, and the Colts don't need to rush him into the lineup. Minshew can serve as the bridge quarterback until Richardson is more prepared to take over.

San Francisco 49ers

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Brock Purdy

For the 49ers' sake, hopefully the 2023 season isn't another game of musical chairs at quarterback.

The competition is a fascinating one, though.

Trey Lance opened the 2022 campaign as the starter, but an ankle injury sidelined him for the remainder of the year. Brock Purdy later replaced Jimmy Garoppolo and helped San Francisco come within a win of the Super Bowl before an elbow injury marred his final game.

Given the latter note, Purdy is the favorite over Lance—and Sam Darnold. But he's recovering from surgery on his right elbow, so Purdy's lack of availability during the offseason only further complicates this battle.

While Purdy remains the projected starter, the "if healthy" asterisk applies. Otherwise, it'll be Lance's show again in Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield

From a context perspective, the toughest competition might belong to the Bucs. They're trapped in a rebuild-type situation yet have playoff aspirations in what may again be a mediocre NFC South.

The more exciting option is Kyle Trask. Although he attempted only nine passes in two years as a reserve behind Tom Brady, Trask was a second-round pick in 2021. No matter if you're a fan of the team, the appeal is seeing whether Tampa will get a quality return on that investment.

Nevertheless, he doubles as the unknown choice. We basically know what to expect from Baker Mayfield—which isn't necessarily a great thing, but it's not definitely worse than an alternative, either.

Quite the ringing endorsement, I realize.

Mayfield will probably open the season as the starter, and he should be productive thanks to a receiving corps with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. However, it's fair to say Mayfield's grip on the QB1 label will be tenuous if Tampa is hovering on the wrong side of .500.

Washington Commanders

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Sam Howell

If you ask second-year receiver Jahan Dotson, the Commanders already have the answer to this question.

"I think we've got our quarterback situation settled," he said during a recent appearance on The Jim Rome Show. "I think Sam Howell is gonna be our guy. I have complete faith in him."

Howell, like Trask, has minimal NFL experience. But in his lone start last season, Howell totaled 204 yards and two touchdowns and propelled Washington to a surprise win over the Dallas Cowboys.

Jacoby Brissett, who the Commanders signed in free agency, is a fine secondary option. He's never locked down a starting job, though, and Washington is hardly in position to challenge for an NFC East crown. This upcoming season is an ideal time to see what Howell can become.

If he pans out, the team potentially found a franchise QB. If not, the Commanders may pick high enough to draft one in 2024 anyway.