UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill Odds, Schedule, Predictions for UFC Vegas 73
Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill both hit the strawweight limit on the scale Friday, making UFC Fight Night official with the two serving as the main event from the Apex Facility in Las Vegas.
Raquel Pennington and Irene Aldana was supposed to be the main event, but Aldana was called up to fight Amanda Nunes for the bantamweight championship at UFC 289.
Now, Dern and Hill find themselves with an opportunity to serve as headliners and gain some ground in the women's strawweight title picture.
Dern is a submission ace who is capable of submitting anyone if the fight is on the mat. Hill is an aggressive kickboxer who will look to keep things out.
It's going to be a fun clash of styles to close out a card with a few interesting fights. Here's a look at the complete card with the latest odds and predictions for the featured bouts.
Fight Card, Schedule and Odds
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Main Card (ESPN+, 7 p.m. ET)
- Mackenzie Dern (-175) vs. Angela Hill (+150)
- Anthony Hernandez (-190) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (+160)
- Emily Ducote (+125) vs. Loopy Godinez (-145)
- Joaquin Buckley (-210) vs. Andre Fialho (+180)
- Diego Ferreira (-150) vs. Michael Johnson (+130)
Prelims (ESPN+, 4 p.m. ET)
- Viacheslav Borshchev (-165) vs. Hayisaer Maheshate (+140)
- Vanessa Demopoulos (+110) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-130)
- Orion Cosce (-110) vs. Gilbert Urbina (-110)
- Ilir Latifi (+145) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (-170)
- Nick Fiore (-125) vs. Chase Hooper (+105)
- Victoria Leonardo (+625) vs. Natalia Silva (-900)
- Themba Gorimbo (-125) vs. Takashi Sato (+105)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dern vs. Hill
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Both Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill's careers have been marked by inconsistency. Both have had great runs where they looked like they could be contenders. Both have had runs of fights that made that thought look ridiculous.
The truth is, both are dangerous in their own arena.
For Hill, that's kickboxing. The 38-year-old is a fast striker with some of the best hand speed in the division and good enough kicks to control the distance against a lot of opponents.
Hill's downfall is that she doesn't have much power despite the kickboxing background. She's a fun action fighter but seldom lands a big enough shot to score a knockout. She hasn't finished anyone in nine consecutive fights.
The good news on that front is that she hasn't been finished either. She's never been knocked out despite keeping an incredibly busy schedule and has only been submitted twice.
That's the cracked door for Dern to get a finish in this spot. She has high level jiu-jitsu and has been good at translating it to MMA. Seven of her 12 career victories have come by submission.
Dern is the favorite, but it's hard to trust her because of her rudimentary striking. Hill has good takedown defense and is generally a smart fighter. It won't be surprising if she uses her jab and leg kicks to keep Dern away from her and earns the nod from the judges.
Prediction: Hill via decision
Hernandez vs. Shahbazyan
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The co-main event features two middleweights trying to make post-hype runs in the division. Edmen Shahbazyan and Anthony Hernandez were both hyped prospects to varying degrees coming into the UFC only to have some losses siphon the gas from their hype trains.
Now they have the chance to show those expectations weren't misplaced.
Shahbazyan started off his career 11-0 and won his first four fights in the UFC. Three of those wins came by either knockout or submission as it looked like he was well on his way to becoming the next big thing.
Instead, he lost three fights in a row, starting with a knockout loss to Derek Brunson.
He got back on track with a TKO win over Dalcha Lungiambula, but he's going to have to do more than beat a 35-year-old with a 2-5 UFC record to reignite the hype.
Hernandez earned his way into the UFC with a knockout win over Jordan Wright on Dana White's Contender Series that was later overturned after he tested positive for marijuana. Combined with a win over Brendan Allen outside the UFC, he appeared ready to compete from the beginning.
Then he lost two of his first three fights in the UFC, including a submission loss to Markus Perez.
Since then, he's reeled off three straight, winning two by submission.
Hernandez doesn't offer much in the way of power. He only has one knockout win, but he owns seven submission victories. Shahbazyan is the much more dangerous striker. He has 10 knockout wins and hasn't been submitted in his career.
Sound the upset alarms again.
Prediction: Shahbazyan via second-round TKO
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Ducote vs. Godinez
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Emily Ducote was originally supposed to meet Polyana Viana in this spot. However, Viana withdrew from the fight and Loopy Godinez stepped in to take the bout on short notice.
That doesn't mean that Ducote got an easy out, though.
Godinez has proved to be a gamer. She has stepped in on short notice on multiple occasions and put on good performances. She's a grinding wrestler with some finishing power on the ground, which happens to be a style that can work against just about anyone.
That includes Ducote, who is much more of a striker. She has yet to be taken down in the UFC and looked good against Jessica Penne in her UFC debut.
Unfortunately for her, that didn't carry over in her second bout with the organization when she was picked apart by Hill.
This will be interesting because neither Penne nor Hill pushes the issue of getting a takedown. Godinez will test Ducote's takedown defense, and if it isn't up to par, she will punish it.
Prediction: Godinez via third-round TKO
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