Predicting the NFL's Top 5 MVP Candidates in 5 Years

Projecting a half-decade into the future of the NFL is equal parts fascinating and terrifying.

As much as NFL media and fans think we know, change is inevitable. Perhaps a quarterback doesn't age gracefully. Maybe a star teammate requests a trade or a promising coach sort of becomes a dud. In a worst-case scenario, maybe an injury redirects the course of a career.

That's the long version of saying that, sitting here in 2023, a preview of MVP contenders in the 2028 season is a complete guess.

But it's entertaining, too.

The list is naturally subjective, but it considers a player's individual ability and believed upside, past production, surrounding talent (and the potential growth of those players) and perceived franchise stability, when applicable.

Jalen Hurts, QB

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GLENDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 12: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles looks to throw a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first quarter in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium on February 12, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Jalen Hurts has taken a superstar turn during the past two years, leading to his MVP runner-up finish in 2022. He totaled 4,230 yards and 35 touchdowns while guiding the Philadelphia Eagles to an NFC title.

And he'll only be 25 years old in 2023.

One critical part of Hurts' development is that he's played behind a terrific offensive line. The unit undoubtedly will look different in 2028 but will remain a key to Philadelphia's success.

Beyond the blockers, though, Philly's key receivers are similarly young. A.J. Brown will be 26 this season, and DeVonta Smith turns 25 in November. In theory, they'll be on the latter end of their prime, but the Eagles certainly will be drafting players at the position anyway.

The financial side of this equation is important, of course, but Philly has an excellent outlook with and for Hurts.

Caleb Williams, QB

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LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 26: USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) escapes pressure during a game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the USC Trojans on November 26, 2022, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Five years ago, Hurts was a backup quarterback at Alabama. At that time, only one of the next three players had made his NFL debut. In other words, a current college star definitely merits consideration.

The unknown is a complication, of course. We do not know where Caleb Williams will play in the pros.

In college, though, he's been fantastic.

After playing well as a freshman at Oklahoma in 2021, he followed head coach Lincoln Riley to USC. Williams exploded for 4,919 total yards and 52 touchdowns, showing off his efficiency as a passer and plus mobility. He ripped off 27 runs of 10-plus yards and scored 10 times on the ground.

Williams should be a top selection in the 2024 NFL draft and immediately elevate the franchise that selects him.

Trevor Lawrence, QB

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JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - JANUARY 14: Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars reacts during the second half of the game against the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC Wild Card playoff game at TIAA Bank Field on January 14, 2023 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)

Trevor Lawrence is a prime example of why stability matters.

Early in his Clemson career, Lawrence established himself as a high-value prospect. Upon his NFL arrival, he entered a nightmare of a situation under former Jacksonville Jaguars coach Urban Meyer. Lawrence tossed 12 touchdowns to 17 interceptions as a rookie.

But the Jags wisely moved on from Meyer, bringing in Doug Pederson and rapidly improving the trajectory of Lawrence's career. He propelled Jacksonville to an AFC South title and playoff win last season.

Looking ahead to 2028, the personnel around Lawrence may be considerably different. The current core—Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones and Evan Engram—will be at least a couple years into their 30s.

This, however, is a bet on Lawrence's upside with Jacksonville continuing to properly build around its young superstar.

Patrick Mahomes, QB

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GLENDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 12: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks to pass against the Philadelphia Eagles during the third quarter in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium on February 12, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Patrick Mahomes is a transcendent talent who—in our present time—would be foolish to exclude. The two-time MVP plays quarterback at a level and in ways the NFL has rarely, or ever, seen.

His outlook is fascinating, though.

In 2028, Hall of Fame-bound tight end Travis Kelce, if he's still playing, would be entering his age-39 season. At risk of him calling me a jabroni in a half-decade, Kelce probably won't be an All-Pro player anymore. The offense will likely have a new featured target by then.

Plus, Chiefs coach Andy Reid will be 70. Although he may still be the boss in Kansas City, would a couple more Super Bowl rings in the next few seasons nudge Reid toward retirement?

The franchise may undergo some major changes in the next half-decade, but Mahomes' presence overshadows the unknown.

Joe Burrow, QB

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CINCINNATI, OH - JANUARY 08: Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) talks to quarterback Joe Burrow (9) during a stop in play. In the game against the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals on January 8, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

If you forced me to make a friendly wager on which player is most likely to match this billing, it would be Joe Burrow.

First, he's simply an outstanding quarterback. During the 2021 and 2022 seasons combined, Burrow completed 69.3 percent of his passes with 9,086 yards and 69 touchdowns to 26 interceptions. He added 375 yards and seven scores as a runner, too.

Burrow also has a superstar teammate in Ja'Marr Chase, who's already one of the NFL's best receivers and will only be 28 in 2028. Tee Higgins will turn 29 that year. If the Bengals sign both wideouts to extensions, they might have the best QB-WR-WR trio in the league.

Cincinnati coach Zac Taylor is a great offensive mind, and there is hardly a reason for him to leave while Burrow is there.

Burrow, on paper, should be an annual MVP contender for many years.