UFC Fight Night 222: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes Odds, Schedule, Predictions
Serghei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes sit just outside of the title picture in a suddenly interesting heavyweight division with Jon Jones at the top. At UFC Fight Night 222, they'll try to insert themselves into that picture.
Blaydes is on a three-fight win streak. After watching Jones bulldoze his way through Ciryl Gane with his grappling, his wrestling stands out as a unique challenge that could force Bones to showcase a different element of his skill set as a heavyweight.
Pavlovich has been up-and-coming for a while now. At 30 years old, he's young for the division and has five-straight knockout wins to build his hype train. A win over Blaydes would surely set the way for an even bigger spotlight.
The UFC's APEX Facility will also play host to a middleweight faceoff between Brad Tavares and Bruno Silva as the co-main event. Here's a look at the whole card and a prediction for the biggest fights of the night.
Fight Card, Schedule and Odds
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Main Card (ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET)
Sergei Pavlovich (+145) vs. Curtis Blaydes (-170)
Brad Tavares (-155) vs. Bruno Silva (+135)
Bobby Green (-265) vs. Jared Gordon (+225)
Iasmin Lucindo (-360) vs. Brogan Walker (+295)
Jeremiah Wells (-110) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (-110)
Preliminary Card (ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET)
Ricky Glenn (-155) vs. Christos Giagos (+135)
Rani Yahya (+440) vs. Montel Jackson (-580)
Karol Rosa (-105) vs. Norma Dumont (-115)
Mohammed Usman (-105) vs. Junior Tafa (-115)
Francis Marshall (-200) vs. William Gomis (+170)
Brady Hiestand (+130) vs. Batgerel Danaa (-150
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
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This is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup with the traditional heavyweight twist that either fighter could win at pretty much any moment.
Pavlovich has been wiping opponents out. He looks like the next great power puncher in the division, and his five-consecutive knockout wins would seem to be proof that's the case.
However, Blaydes has a tricky tendency to completely neutralize with his wrestling. He's one of the most dominant pure wrestlers in the division, and while he has two losses to Francis Ngannou, he holds wins over Alistair Overeem, Junior dos Santos and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
All three of those fighters are lethal strikers to varying degrees. All three were shut down by Blaydes' smothering attack.
The high-impact events in this fight are going to occur in those brief moments when Blaydes is moving from the outside to clinch or takedown range. If Pavlovich can make something happen with those windows and keep the fight upright, he has a shot.
If he can't. then it's going to be a long night. Blaydes has demonstrated the ability to do that to some really high-level strikers.
Pavlovich will truly have to be special to keep his name off that list.
Prediction: Blaydes via fourth-round TKO
Tavares vs. Silva
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The co-main event might not be the most high-stakes encounter. Neither Brad Tavares nor Bruno Silva is likely to ever challenge for the middleweight title. Tavares is 35 years old and Silva is 33.
However, both are willing strikers who aren't going to be content to grapple this one out.
At this stage of their careers, their best bet to remain on the roster is to put on some entertaining fights, which is why they've likely been chosen to be the penultimate fight.
The hardest thing about predicting this fight is guessing which version of Silva is going to show up. Tavares has been a consistent fighter for most of his nearly 13-year UFC career. However, Silva has a much wider range of outcomes.
The Brazilian went toe-to-toe with Alex Pereira in March 2022. They had a highly competitive second round in a fight he ultimately lost, but Pereira has since become a champion, so it's a good performance overall.
Then he got outpointed by Gerald Meerschaert, who is not exactly a scary striker.
Silva has the power to end this fight early if he's on. But it's a tricky game trying to figure out if that's going to be the case.
Prediction: Tavares via decision
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Green vs. Gordon
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Unlike the co-main event, the lightweight bout between Bobby Green and Jared Gordon is all but guaranteed to have some grappling involved.
Gordon is a grinder who looks to live in the clinch and wear down his opponents. Green isn't so reliant on his wrestling, but it's definitely in the toolkit.
Despite being 36 years old, Green remains a good athlete, even for the lightweight division. His foot speed and fast reactions should help him stay out of Gordon's grasp and potentially set himself up for a takedown if Gordon gets out of position.
If Green can create space for himself, he's going to light up Gordon on the feet.
That should be the case. Gordon is more of a wrestler who relies on being relentless than his actual grappling prowess. There might be at least one round in which Green is tied up on the fence and Gordon gets to play out his game plan a bit.
It won't be enough to win the fight, though.
Prediction: Green via decision
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