10 MLB Prospects With the Best Chance to Win Rookie of the Year in 2023
The 2022 MLB season featured one of the best rookie classes in recent memory. Julio Rodríguez and Michael Harris II took home Rookie of the Year honors in the AL and NL, respectively, while Adley Rutschman, Spencer Strider, Jeremy Peña, Steven Kwan, Bobby Witt Jr., George Kirby and Brendan Donovan also made a significant impact for their clubs.
That will be a tough act for the 2023 rookie class to top, but it does feature some exciting players who are capable of making a similar splash.
Here, we've highlighted 10 players with the best chance to win Rookie of the Year honors in 2023—five from each division—along with an honorable mention list of players from each league who are also worth keeping an eye on.
Path to playing time and previous track record of production were the biggest factors in selecting who made the list, but there will always be at least a few surprises along the way, as Kwan proved in 2022.
RHP Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
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Hunter Brown might not start the season with a spot in the Houston Astros rotation, but Atlanta Braves rookie standout Spencer Strider didn't last season, either. Strider eventually shifted into a starting role and never looked back.
Brown, 24, got his first taste of the big leagues last season as a September call-up. He logged a 0.89 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 22 strikeouts in 20.1 innings spanning two starts and five relief appearances. That earned him a spot on the postseason roster, and he worked another 3.2 scoreless frames in October.
Even with Justin Verlander gone, the Astros still have Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis García and José Urquidy lined up as the five-man starting staff to open the year. However, one injury or one rough patch from one of those guys and Brown is the next man up, while a six-man rotation to start the year is also not out of the question.
1B Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
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Triston Casas has a clear path to the Boston Red Sox's starting first base job after Eric Hosmer was released earlier this offseason. With nothing left to prove in the minors, he's more or less a lock for a spot on the Opening Day roster.
The 23-year-old starred for Team USA in the 2020 Olympics, posting a .960 OPS with three home runs and eight RBI in six games. He has been similarly impressive in the upper levels of the minors the past two seasons.
Casas saw extended action as a September call-up last year. While he hit only .197 in 95 plate appearances, that low batting average was accompanied by a .358 on-base percentage, a 20 percent walk rate and a 113 OPS+ with five home runs and 12 RBI.
With a 55-hit, 65-power offensive profile and a .273/.382/.481 line in 72 games at Triple-A last season, there's no reason to believe Casas will continue to struggle from a batting average standpoint. His power and on-base ability are both the real deal.
SS/3B Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
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Regardless of how the Baltimore Orioles decide to deploy infielders Ramón Urías, Jorge Mateo and Adam Frazier, expect to see Gunnar Henderson in their everyday starting lineup from the jump in 2023.
The 21-year-old emerged as one of baseball's elite prospects last season before hitting .259/.348/.440 for a 123 OPS+ with seven doubles, four home runs and 18 RBI in 34 games in the majors. He started multiple games at second base, shortstop and third base after he made his MLB debut on Aug. 31.
With that said, his offensive ceiling is what gives him the potential to run away with AL Rookie of the Year honors. He could be the wire-to-wire front-runner, similar to Julio Rodríguez in 2022.
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3B Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
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Expected to be one of the first players from the 2019 draft class to reach the majors, Josh Jung has instead played only 179 professional games since the Texas Rangers made him the No. 8 overall pick.
The canceled 2020 minor league seasons didn't help, but Jung also missed time with a fractured left foot in 2021 and a torn labrum in his left shoulder in 2022. Once he took the field last year in late July, he was put on the fast track.
The 24-year-old finally made his MLB debut as a September call-up and tallied 10 extra-base hits in 102 plate appearances while serving as the Rangers' everyday third baseman over the final month. That job will be his to lose this spring, and his 60-hit, 55-power profile gives him the potential to make an immediate impact on an up-and-coming team.
C Logan O'Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels
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The Los Angeles Angels have had a revolving door at catcher for more than a decade, but they may have finally found a long-term solution when they flipped outfielder Brandon Marsh to the Philadelphia Phillies at the trade deadline for Logan O'Hoppe.
The 22-year-old has had a dramatic upward trajectory since the Phillies took him in the 23rd round of the 2018 draft. He flew through the Philadelphia system while establishing himself as a top prospect by hitting .283/.416/.544 with 26 home runs and 78 RBI in 104 games at Double-A last year.
The Angels jumped him over Triple-A and gave him a taste of the majors down the stretch last year, and he went 4-for-14 with two RBI in five games. Veteran Max Stassi is still around and a platoon is likely, but O'Hoppe has the tools to emerge as the Angels' clear starter at catcher as the 2023 season unfolds.
Other AL Contenders to Watch
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These players didn't quite crack our top five in the American League, but they are worth keeping an eye on as well:
RHP Taj Bradley, TB
OF Oscar Colás, CWS
LHP DL Hall, BAL
3B Curtis Mead, TB
LHP Kyle Muller, OAK
C Bo Naylor, CLE
IF Oswald Peraza, NYY
RHP Grayson Rodriguez, BAL
SS Anthony Volpe, NYY
LHP Ken Waldichuk, OAK
OF Drew Waters, KC
RHP Owen White, TEX
OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS
C Francisco Álvarez, New York Mets
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Despite his standing as one of baseball's elite prospects and the fact that he closed out the 2022 season on the New York Mets' MLB roster, it sounds like Francisco Álvarez is headed back to the minors to begin the 2023 campaign.
With only 45 games played at the Triple-A level, it's perfectly reasonable to think the 21-year-old is best served continuing to refine his defensive game in the minors. The Mets' addition of Omar Narváez in free agency is further reason not to rush Álvarez to the big leagues, even though he had an .885 OPS with 27 home runs in the upper levels of the minors last year.
Keep in mind, Atlanta Braves center fielder Michael Harris II didn't make his MLB debut until May 28 last season, and he still won NL Rookie of the Year honors. Starting the year in the minors doesn't take a player out of the Rookie of the Year race.
OF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
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With one of the most polished hit tools to come out of the high school ranks in years, Corbin Carroll looked like a potential steal from the moment the Arizona Diamondbacks selected him with the No. 16 pick in the 2019 draft.
Carroll had played only 49 professional games prior to the 2022 season, but he sent his prospect stock soaring this year when he hit .307/.425/.611 with 54 extra-base hits and 31 steals in 93 games in the upper levels of the minors.
The 22-year-old made his MLB debut on Aug. 29 and hit .260/.330/.500 for a 133 OPS+ with 15 extra-base hits and 1.2 WAR in 115 plate appearances down the stretch. He should open the season as the starting center fielder and leadoff hitter on a sneaky good D-backs team, and there could be a few batting titles in his future.
LHP Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants
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The San Francisco Giants replaced frontline starter Carlos Rodón with middle-of-the-rotation arms Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea this offseason. While they have a potentially deep rotation behind Logan Webb, they are lacking a second ace-caliber starter.
Left-hander Kyle Harrison could be the answer after he posted a 2.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 186 strikeouts in 113 innings between High-A and Double-A this past season. He also trimmed his walk rate from 4.7 BB/9 in his pro debut in 2021 to a more palatable 3.9 BB/9 last year.
The 21-year-old could use a bit more seasoning in the upper minors. But if he starts the season hot and the Giants rotation is not performing up to expectations, he could quickly get the call to provide reinforcement.
1B Matt Mervis, Chicago Cubs
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Matt Mervis began the 2022 season as the No. 20 prospect in the Chicago Cubs' farm system, but his numbers over three minor league levels last year were impossible to ignore.
The 24-year-old hit .309/.379/.606 with 40 doubles, 36 home runs and 119 RBI in 137 games between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. He closed out the year with a .914 OPS and six home runs in 17 games in the Arizona Fall League.
With nothing left to prove in the minors and the Cubs in a transitional phase, Mervis will have every chance to win a starting job this spring, even after the Cubs added veterans Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer in free agency.
Hosmer will only make the league minimum with the Cubs since the San Diego Padres are still paying his salary, so the Cubs could cut him loose this spring if Mervis outperforms him.
SS Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies
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If you're looking for a player who could be this year's version of Jeremy Peña, look no further than Colorado Rockies shortstop Ezequiel Tovar.
The 21-year-old began his career as a defensive-minded prospect before hitting .319/.387/.540 with 15 doubles, 14 home runs and 17 steals in 71 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He remains arguably the best defensive shortstop among prospects, but he now has the offensive upside to be a standout everyday player.
The Rockies gave him a nine-game cup of coffee in September. With José Iglesias departing after playing on a one-year deal last season, there is no clear in-house option blocking Tovar's path to a starting job on Opening Day.
Other NL Contenders to Watch
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These players didn't quite crack our top five in the National League, but they are worth keeping an eye on as well:
3B Brett Baty, NYM
OF Alec Burleson, STL
RHP Cade Cavalli, WAS
RHP Drey Jameson, ARI
RHP Bobby Miller, LAD
OF Garrett Mitchell, MIL
RHP Ryne Nelson, ARI
RHP Luis Ortiz, PIT
OF James Outman, LAD
RHP Ryan Pepiot, LAD
RHP Andrew Painter, PHI
IF Eguy Rosario, SD
IF Spencer Steer, CIN
3B Jordan Walker, STL
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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