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NFL Playoff Odds 2023: Super Bowl Lines for AFC, NFC Contenders After Week 17

Joe TanseyJanuary 2, 2023

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - DECEMBER 24: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills throws a pass during the second half in the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on December 24, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
Quinn Harris/Getty Images

Eleven of the 14 spots in the NFL postseason field have been clinched.

None of those 11 teams know how their respective paths to the Super Bowl will begin, and only two of them have their seeding locked in.

The uncertainty surrounding even the top teams in the NFL could lead you to taking a flier on a franchise with longer odds to win the Super Bowl.

The Buffalo Bills are the current favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to come home with the Lombardi Trophy, but they could lose the right to land home-field advantage in the AFC with a Monday loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Cincinnati and the Kansas City Chiefs feel like the most complete teams to challenge Buffalo in the AFC for a trip to Arizona in February.

The same could be said about the San Francisco 49ers chasing down the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC.

Philadelphia can still land home-field advantage, but the 49ers have looked like the better team over the last month.

The NFC playoff picture also has Tom Brady lurking as the No. 4 seed, and it could have Aaron Rodgers sneaking in as the No. 7 seed to make the field even more dangerous.


Super Bowl Odds

Buffalo (+350; bet $100 to win $350)

Kansas City (+450)

Philadelphia (+550)

San Francisco (+600)

Cincinnati (+800)

Dallas (+1000)

Tampa Bay (+2500)

Los Angeles Chargers (+2500)

Baltimore (+3000)

Minnesota (+3000)

Green Bay (+3500)

Jacksonville (+5000)

Miami (+6000)

New York Giants (+6000)

New England (+15000)

Seattle (+15000)

Detroit (+15000)

Tennessee (+20000)

Pittsburgh (+20000)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook


Josh Allen and Co. need two wins to lock up home-field advantage. If they can do that, they could reinforce their title-winning credentials with wins over Cincinnati and the New England Patriots.

A road win in Cincinnati would go a long way to affirming Buffalo's spot as Super Bowl favorite, and it would likely make Kansas City and the Bengals go through western New York to get to the Super Bowl.

Buffalo would still need to beat New England at home in Week 18 to confirm the No. 1 seed. That will be a difficult game to win because New England needs a win to get into the playoff field.

Even if Buffalo is the top seed, it does not have the one thing Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow have with their respective teams, and that is a Super Bowl appearance.

The Chiefs or Bengals could be good bets out of the AFC because both teams know what it takes to win on the road in the postseason to get to the Super Bowl.

The Los Angeles Chargers might be the dark horse in the AFC with Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams all healthy.

The Chargers could jump into the No. 5 seed in the AFC next week if Baltimore loses to Cincinnati, and that would set up an easier first-round matchup against the AFC South winner.

The dark horse teams in the NFC are easy to point out because Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are leading them.

Tampa Bay is confirmed to have a home game as the No. 4 seed, and that will likely come against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas could still be the NFC East winner if the Eagles lose in Week 18.

Brady's resume speaks for itself, and if he gets one playoff win under his belt this season, that could create momentum to make a push to Arizona.

Green Bay needs to beat the Detroit Lions next week to get into the playoff field. The Packers would need to win three road games to get to the Super Bowl, but they might carry the best value at +3500 to win the Super Bowl with Rodgers leading them.

San Francisco might be the safest bet out of the NFC at the moment. The 49ers have not changed one bit with Brock Purdy at quarterback, and they could have a healthy Deebo Samuel back for the postseason.

The Eagles have looked shaky in the last two weeks without Jalen Hurts. The quarterback's impending return could ease some of the concerns about Philadelphia's Super Bowl chances.

But for now, San Francisco is the most consistent team in the NFC, and it could be the best team to buy on the Super Bowl futures market because of its consistency.


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Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.