NFL MVP Race 2022-23: Latest Predictions After Updated Odds Entering Week 16

The betting odds have shifted in favor of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP at the end of the 2022 season. That's because an injury has occurred to the previous front-runner.

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is dealing with a right shoulder sprain that could prevent him from playing in Week 16 against the Chicago Bears, according to ESPN's Tim McManus. The ailment is "not considered a long-term injury," per McManus, but it could impact Hurts' chances of winning NFL MVP.

It's highly likely that the award will be going to a quarterback, unless something major happens over the final three weeks of the regular season to change that. Mahomes and Hurts are the top betting favorites, but the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen and the Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow are also in the conversation.

Here's a look at the latest NFL MVP odds, followed by predictions for how the award race will shake out at the end of the regular season.

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Latest NFL MVP Odds

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: -350 (bet $350 to win $100)

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts: +550 (bet $100 to win $550)

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen: +550

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow: +600

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa: +10000

Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson: +10000

Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert: +13000

Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: +20000

Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins: +20000

San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey: +25000

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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Predictions

If Hurts ends up playing 16 games this season (or perhaps 17, if he ends up being able to suit up this week), there's still a good chance he'll win NFL MVP. The 24-year-old is having a tremendous season and has been instrumental to the Eagles going 13-1 thus far.

However, it doesn't seem likely Hurts will play that much, even if the injury isn't a long-term issue for him.

Philadelphia has already clinched a playoff berth, and it has a three-game lead over the second-place Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. The Eagles should clinch the division title soon. And they also have a two-game advantage for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Assuming that Philadelphia can clinch that top spot before Week 18, there may be no reason to play Hurts in the finale, especially if he isn't at 100 percent. It may prevent him from earning his first NFL MVP honor, but the Eagles' goal is to win the Super Bowl, and they need Hurts healthy in order to have a chance to do that.

So that's why Mahomes has emerged as the clear favorite to win MVP for the second time in his six-year NFL career. The Chiefs have already clinched the AFC West, but they're 11-3, just like the Bills. Those two teams may be competing for the No. 1 seed (and the first-round bye that comes with it) all the way through Week 18.

That will give Mahomes more opportunities to rack up impressive numbers. Of course, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid believed his quarterback was the NFL MVP front-runner even before the news of Hurts' injury came out.

"If he's not the MVP in the league, I'm not sure what's wrong with them," Reid said following the Chiefs' win over the Houston Texans on Sunday, per Myles Simmons of Pro Football Talk.

Mahomes has been building a strong case. Through 14 games, the 27-year-old has thrown for 4,496 yards and 35 touchdowns, both NFL highs.

Kansas City closes out the regular season with games against the Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders, none of which have records above .500. So things are set up well for Mahomes and the Chiefs to have a strong finish.

Once that happens, it will be clear that Mahomes should be named NFL MVP, especially because Hurts' stats won't go up for however long he's sidelined.

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