NASCAR at Watkins Glen 2022: Odds, Preview and Top Storylines

The penultimate weekend of the NASCAR Cup Series regular season takes the drivers to Watkins Glen.

One of NASCAR's older road course circuits is the fifth non-oval on the regular-season calendar.

The first four road course events produced some unlikely winners. Ross Chastain won at Circuit of the Americans, Daniel Suarez was victorious at Sonoma, and Tyler Reddick took first at Road America and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.

The wins from those unlikely spots plus Kevin Harvick's two straight wins loaded up the playoff field with 15 drivers who qualified directly through a win.

If any of the previous winners from this season take the checkered flag at Watkins Glen, there will be a sense of relief throughout the 15 victorious teams going into next weekend's regular-season finale at Daytona.

Sixteen drivers qualify for the postseason. As of now, all of the winners from the 2022 season automatically qualify, but if there are two unique winners in the next two weeks, one winner will not make the postseason field.

The 16th and final postseason spot could be determined by points. Ryan Blaney holds a 26-point advantage on Martin Truex Jr. for the last playoff qualification spot.

Truex does have a small advantage over Blaney going into Sunday's Go Bowling at the Glen race. Truex won at the New York track in 2017, and he took third behind Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott last August.

Go Bowling at the Glen Odds

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RICHMOND, VIRGINIA - AUGUST 14: Chase Elliott, driver of the #9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet, drives during the NASCAR Cup Series Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway on August 14, 2022 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Chase Elliott (+500; bet $100 to win $500)

Tyler Reddick (+600)

Kyle Larson (+900)

Ross Chastain (+1000)

Austin Cindric (+1000)

Daniel Suárez (+1200)

Ryan Blaney (+1200)

Chase Briscoe (+1500)

A.J. Allmendinger (+1500)

Christopher Bell (+1800)

Martin Truex Jr. (+2000)

Kyle Busch (+2500)

Kevin Harvick (+2500)

Denny Hamlin (+2500)

Chris Buescher (+2500)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Ryan Blaney vs. Martin Truex Jr. Points Battle

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RICHMOND, VIRGINIA - AUGUST 14: Ryan Blaney, driver of the #12 BodyArmor Ford, drives during the NASCAR Cup Series Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway on August 14, 2022 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

The battle for the 16th and final playoff spot is currently between Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr.

Blaney extended his advantage over Truex by seven points during last week's race at Richmond, where Truex has a strong track record.

Truex had the edge on paper at Richmond based on previous results, but Blaney came out on top in the points battle.

Truex again has an advantage when it comes to previous finishes at Watkins Glen. Truex took third at the New York track in 2021, and he finished second in 2019. There was no race at the track in 2020.

The No. 19 car driver has not had great road course results in 2022. He finished seventh at Circuit of the Americas but then landed outside of the top 10 at Sonoma, Road America and Indianapolis.

Blaney owns a single top-five finish at Watkins Glen in his career, but that came back in 2019. He is looking to gain Ford's first win at the New York course since 2015.

Blaney's results have been better on road courses in 2022. He finished sixth at both COTA and Sonoma and was 11th at Road America.

Of course, the goal for both Blaney and Truex is to win and get into the playoff field. But if a win is not attainable, the teams have to make sure they are in front of their closest competition on track.

That may require an alternate pit strategy to make changes right before a stage break, or to stay out while other cars pit to gain track position.

The worst-case scenario for either driver is for another winless racer to emerge victorious. That would put both drivers beneath the playoff cut line with one race left in the regular season.

Can Tyler Reddick Keep Up Great Road Course Form?

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RICHMOND, VIRGINIA - AUGUST 14: Tyler Reddick, driver of the #8 3CHI Chevrolet, waves to fans as he walks onstage during driver intros prior to the NASCAR Cup Series Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway on August 14, 2022 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Tyler Reddick has become the Cup Series' road course ace in 2022.

Reddick placed the No. 8 car in Victory Lane at both Road America and the Indianapolis road course.

Reddick comes into Watkins Glen with two straight road course victories and four top-five finishes in his last five non-oval starts. The only bad finish in that stretch was a 35th-place spot at Sonoma.

Watkins Glen is a bit unfamiliar to Reddick since he only raced there once in his Cup Series career. He took 10th in the 2021 event.

His overall form at road courses over the last two seasons is impressive. He had three top-10 placings on five road courses in 2021, and he backed that up with two wins and a fifth-place mark in 2022.

The results at all different types of road courses suggest Reddick could be in the mix for his third regular-season win on Sunday.

Recent results at Watkins Glen also suggest that Reddick will be in contention for the win. Chevrolet is on a three-race winning streak in New York, and the manufacturer had four top-10 cars, including Reddick, last August.

Will Kyle Larson Repeat Race Win?

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BROOKLYN, MICHIGAN - AUGUST 07: Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, drives during the NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway on August 07, 2022 in Brooklyn, Michigan. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Kyle Larson could use a victory to get some momentum going into the postseason.

Watkins Glen is the perfect spot for the No. 5 car driver to get on the right track since he is the reigning champion and Hendrick Motorspots have the last three Cup Series wins at the track.

Larson's season has not gone as expected. He won the second race of the season at California but has struggled to maintain a spot in the top 10 each week.

Larson was in the mix for the win at Richmond after earning the pole position in qualifying, but he finished in 14th.

He only has two top-10 finishes in his last six races. Larson started five of those six races inside the top 10.

Larson has been one of the Cup Series' most successful road course drivers over the last two seasons. He has three victories and two third-place finishes, including one at Road America in July.

A win, or even a top-five finish, would be a welcome sight for Larson as he and his team try to establish themselves as one of the favorites going into the postseason.

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