December 9, 2008
July 22, 2008
I grew up in a small town just outside Boise, Idaho. I have a brother who is six years older than me, and he made sure I would be an athlete. Baseball was my mainstay, as I played for 13 years. I had a successful High School career, earning top defensive honors, and finishing in the conferences top 10 batting average with a season accumulation of .410. However, though I was an excellent baseball player, my true passion was with football. Being 5'10 and 145 lbs in school, there werent many positions that I fit into, so I just didnt play. In the last 8 years, I put on 50 lbs, but more importantly, I gained even more in terms of wealth of knowledge for college football. I never miss a Boise State home game, and I never miss watching an away game. I love the games... I love the underdog mentality, and I love how hard they play. I am a Correctional Officer for 8 months out of the year... the other 4, I am a college football fiend.
I would think that the most important part of predicting a game would be predicting the winner not being able accurately guess what would happen if the first quarter of a game was played four times exactly. Yes the score after the first quarter was 10-0 but that does not mean that the game is assured to reproduced those numbers verbatum for the rest of the game. You were very foolish to assume that when two teams compete and are excellent in conflicting areas, i.e. Boise's offense and TCU's defense, that one team would produce a result exactly as the average numbers says it will. This is to say that you expected Boise to put up the average number of points versus a very above average team. You should have realisticly expected something in the 20's. It isn't a very good job of predicting if you look at one team while glossing over the other teams information. In you analysis you should have taken in account what TCU could do to Boise's offense and not simply what Boise could do to TCU's defense. If you would've looked at the statistics closer you would've seen that TCU has held every team it played this year to it's lowest point total of the season (excluding Wyoming).
Blaming the game on the offensive coordinator is a horrible tactic at taking away credit from the winning team. Teams don't roll over and lose games someone has to beat them. It's sad that you seem to give no credit to TCU.
I'm sorry I should get back to the point. One quarter does not make a game. Similarly if you multiply the second or fourth quarter by four then TCU wins 28 to 12. If you do the third then it's TCU 12 BSU 0. So with TCU outscoring BSU in 3 of the 4 quarters I guess you right if the first quarter were replayed 4 times then Boise wins big. Unfortunately, football is not a one quarter game just as your prediction was completely wrong. Look on the bright side though for one quarter you were looking good. I think you have a knack for first quarter scores. Lastly, I hope I've exhausted all the angles you might try to argue upon, but maybe you could give me the conclusive evidence on how and why Boise's offensive coordinator threw the game. I'm sure you have the inside scoop. Someone with your prediction skills must have great access to coaches. How else could you have predicted that first quarter? All skill baby, all skill.
No problem Mark, glad you like it! Looking forward to more articles.