June 28, 2014
June 24, 2014
June 21, 2014
June 17, 2014
Author of Rob Vollman's Hockey Abstract and Hockey Abstract 2014, and co-author of the five annual Hockey Prospectus Guides.
Innovator of many advances in analytics including Player Usage Charts, Quality Starts, Setup Passes, Home Plate Save Percentage, Historical Player Projections and League Translations
Featured writer on ESPN Insider and Hockey Prospectus since 2009, and Bleacher Report since 2013.
Radio guest in 11 NHL cities, podcasts in 6 cities, and on five national programs, including Hockey Night in Canada radio
Rob, I have a question about quality of competition. I've been hearing that, based on analysis, quality of competition doesn't seem to matter as much as we believed. I did some of this analysis myself looking at whether QoC is correlated with Corsi Relative to Teammates (David Johnson's data on puckalytics) and when I regressed QoC, QoT, and zone starts on CorsiRelTM (for & against), the latter two had significant regression coefficients, but not Qoc. I noticed, though, that these aggregated values of QoC vary little between players. I presume that's because, across games, players QoC can vary quite a lot, even if they are consistently pitted against the toughest competition of each team.
But when I look at individual games (Oilers games), I notice that some lines consistently out-posses any Oiler against them (e.g., the Sedins, Kopitar's line). So I'm wondering, has there any analysis been done on the affect of QoC on a game-by-game basis within player? So I look a player A (e.g., Petry) and include the possession match-ups from every game, assign a QoC value to each match-up (e.g., CF%), and then do correlation of this particular player over 82 games. Do you know of any such analysis? Am I making sense?
Thanks for your question Mark, but it's like asking me if power play and goaltending is so important then how come Washington didn't win more games. Just because something is important doesn't mean that it's the only thing that matters. And there were 13 teams who didn't beat the Ducks in regulation this year, six of whom made the playoffs. I hope that helps.
Rob -- if puck possession is so extremely important, why didn't the Kings win more games in the regular season? Why couldn't they beat the Ducks even one time in regulation? P.S. San Jose did lose because they are choke artists.
Hi Hacobo, I'd say it was the 1970s Canadiens and the late 90s Red Wings. I actually enjoyed the late 80s Flyers too. Among today's teams the Hawks are really fun to watch.
Dear Rob, who is your favourite team?
Thanks Kent. Good question. Perhaps in a future book I'll look at who is the greatest goal scorer. Then I can use the same approach, and look for playmakers who had unusually high assist totals. It won't find Backstrom, of course, since he played several seasons with Ovechkin. But it might find other "one-hit wonders" whose assists totals were boosted by a great sniper.
Rob. I wanted to bring to your attention something I've been thinking about. There was mention in your abstract of great set-up men boasting their line-mates point totals, primarily in the form of goals. What I wanted to bring up, and I apologize if I missed this, is the possibility that great goal scorers are bringing up the assist totals of their line-mates. Both these concepts are possibly obvious, great players make their teammates better. As an example think of Ovechkin and Backstrom. Who is making who better?
Thanks Kent, I'm glad the book hit the mark. It was truly a labour of love.
There's direct contact information on my Hockey Abstract website if you have any questions.
I purchased your "hockey abstract" and was very satisfied, good work! I have some questions that I would love to have your insight on. I wondered if there was a better way than asking through this bulletin board, maybe you should host a chat room once a week on your site.
Thanks for your comments and opinions Bob, I appreciate that.
I think the Rangers are a solid team and one of the legitimate Stanley Cup contenders to come out of the Eastern Conference this year.
There are certainly things that occur on a day-to-day basis in the locker room and/or on the ice, but I'm obviously not equipped to comment on those (and beware anyone who says he is). That being said, the Rangers have a roster of some highly professional, experienced and talented athletes, and should be able to adapt and respond to whatever challenges may arise.