Tyler Conway is an NBA and Breaking News writer at Bleacher Report. He graduated from Penn State University's John Curley Center for Sports Journalism and is a member of the Pro Basketball Writers Association.
Tyler Conway also finds writing biographies in the third person a strange practice.
Tyler also has a Twitter account. Follow him @tylerconway22
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SCIENCE, DEFLATEGATE AND THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
DeflateGate has erupted onto the National stage, and seems poised to stay there through Superbowl Sunday and beyond. It has been a fascinating, tortured soap opera that has vexed most of us and brought out the worst in some of us. What if this controversy can be resolved through a more reasoned process? What if it could provide a teachable moment for the country about how justice and fairness can be undermined by our collective ignorance of established science and fact, and how what we don't know can distort our beliefs and actions? It is with such high hopes that I share these thoughts with you about under-inflated footballs.
To determine if the New England Patriots have violated NFL rules about ball inflation, the main question is, "Was the drop in ball pressure due to natural causes or tampering?" As Coach Belichick explained last Saturday, the best way to truly answer this question is to do an experiment. Before such an experiment, a scientist will need to form a testable hypothesis, a prediction, based on the facts of the situation and what is known about natural laws. In this case, the relevant physical law is the Ideal Gas Law (Pressure x Volume = n x R x Temperature) combined with the fact that friction generates heat.
Check out this informative video which also explains the science behind the pressure-drop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf8oQ4rhR-A
THE FOUR PHYSICAL PHASES OF DEFLATEGATE
Knowing the conditions at the AFC Championship game and how the Patriot’s footballs were treated, it’s not hard to anticipate the result based on the four different physical phases the balls went through. The logical prediction is that ball pressure would drop significantly below the NFL minimum 12.5 psi. In fact, this is a certainty:
1) Rubbing Phase - Before the AFC Championship game, Brady's balls were in the locker room, where the air temperature was likely 70-75 degrees. His balls were then rubbed vigorously for a substantial preparation period. The rubbing created heat from friction. The heat increased the air Temperature in the footballs above the indoor temperature. The warm air couldn't expand the footballs by much, so the Pressure would increase.
2) Cooling Phase A - Brady's warmed balls were given to referee Walt Anderson, who was asked to set the pressure at 12.5 psi. The warmed balls stayed in the official's locker room for over 2 hours and gradually cooled back to the indoor temperature. This initial drop in Temperature would result in a corresponding drop in Pressure (approx 1 psi per Coach Belichick).
3) Cooling Phase B - 10 minutes before kickoff, the balls were taken by NFL staff to the sideline. The temperature was approximately 50 degrees, but would have been lower on surfaces exposed to rain and wind-chill. Over the course of the first half, Brady's wet balls would have cooled to below 50 degrees. This second drop in ball Temperature would result in a further drop in ball Pressure (psi).
4) Stretching Phase - In addition, the leather of a wet football stretches, increasing the Volume inside it. Increased ball Volume would cause a third drop in ball Pressure (psi). Did you see the condition of the balls? Several pictures show them dripping wet and soaked through in the hands of the players and referees. The leather would have stretched - how much would have to be determined by experiment.
Taken together, these physical and climate factors would definitely drop the pressure in the footballs to substantially below the 12.5 psi set, per NFL protocol, by officials 2 hours pregame. This is not a possibility, it is a certainty.
Just like when you hold a solid object in your hand then let it go, it will fall according to physical laws (gravity), so it is that whenever a referee in their locker room inflates a warmed ball to the lower limit of 12.5 psi, then takes it out into cold, wet, windy weather, that ball will be underinflated 100% of the time. There is no question that this has happened countless times in late season, cold weather games throughout the history of the National Football League. Asterisks all around for everybody, especially the Packers!
A MATTER OF DEGREE
Aside from the certainty of cold weather pressure drop, the real question we are left with is, "How much does it drop?" This will be answered not by rifling through the team's email, text messages and surveillance video, but rather by an experiment. Hence Coach Belichick's usual common sense in taking the opportunity to do just this before the team left Foxborough. Until someone else performs and documents the definitive experiment (several amateur scientists have posted attempts on YouTube), we should all take him at his word that ball pressure would have dropped enough, without any tampering, to account for what was observed by the referees during the recent AFC championship game.
It should be pointed out that an NFL football team could have avoided football deflation below the league minimum 12.5 psi in very cold weather by checking the ball pressure on the sideline during the game and pumping more air into them (increasing the “n” in the Ideal Gas Law). However, this would violate NFL rules by tampering with the balls. Teams have been placed by the NFL in an untenable situation where they’re “damned if you do and damned if you don’t”… and double-dog-damned if they happen to be the New England Patriots.
THE BLIND LEADING THE BLIND
During this fascinating, frustrating, all-consuming week of DeflateGate, some might wonder how could so many intelligent, highly paid NFL executives and officials have established such a flawed rule, a rule that appear ignorant of the fact that cold weather drops ball Pressure.
The DeflateGate "scandal" rages on because so many remain mystified by the inexplicable deflation of footballs in a cold, wet game. The science needed to dispel this mystery is not hard to grasp. In fact, the ideal gas law was formulated back in 1834, and is taught in high school physics class. Tragically, many journalists and commentators lack this knowledge and have plunged ahead recklessly with false accusations and little curiosity about the basic facts of the matter. They think that for the pressure to drop significantly, someone must have let air out of the Patriots balls. They just know it. Emboldened by ignorance and sinister suspicion, they have proclaimed the Patriots must have cheated by intentionally let air out of the balls by tampering with them. We wonder why so many media pundits have been so blind to their ignorance.
Answers to these questions come from the other important scientific field at play in DeflateGate: Cognitive and Social Psychology. Discussion of this is complex and goes way beyond the issue of football pressure, but is extremely relevant to the media and society at large. If you are interested, please look up "Cognitive Bias" and "The Dunning-Kruger effect: Why The Incompetent Don’t Know They’re Incompetent".
The science of cognitive bias is necessary to help us to understand how overconfident NFL officials established unworkable inflation rules. It also helps us to better understand why so many pundits have failed to appreciate the reasons for football deflation in a cold wet game yet have gone on to lob accusations of ball tampering with great confidence and righteous indignation (and a few tears).
While the science of human cognition and its limitations is probably powerless to eliminate the mass hysteria of DeflateGate, Obama birthers or Climate change luddites, high school physics can reliably keep NFL footballs properly inflated during games in any kind of weather. It could, in some small way, embody the way an enlightened society can solve problems in a rational, effective manner. Like most true solutions, the fix for NFL balls is simple, cost effective and elegant. Here it is:
1) Keep the current process of the teams giving their game balls to the officials 2-3 hours before kick-off. The officials have time to inspect the balls and allow time to correct any concerns.
2) At least 90 minutes before kick-off, the officials place the balls in breathable tamper proof bags or other containers, seal the containers with tamper-proof fasteners, and take them down to the field. This will allow the air inside the footballs to equilibrate to the climactic conditions (i.e. temperature) on the field.
3) The bags should be placed in plain sight of both teams, fans and officials in the center of the field. In any case, they must not be left near sideline heaters or fans.
4) The outside of the containers should be reflective White in color. (If the containers were black or other dark color and left in the sun, they will heat up the balls and prevent equilibration.
5) Whether to keep the balls dry from any rain will have to be determined.
6) The officials will break open the tamper-proof seals 10-20 minutes before kickoff, remove the balls, and adjust air pressure to NFL specifications.
7) Officials should be allowed to check and readjust ball pressures at half-time or other times during the game.
This unfortunate outcome is the direct result of the NFL executives, lawyers and business owners with inadequate knowledge of basic high-school physics, who have established irrational rules for pregame football inflation. Robert Kraft’s indignation is certainly justified, but should be tempered by the realization that he joined so many others in implementing them. While apparently competent to manage business and legal matters, one wonders about the competency of NFL officials to handle all the other important matters facing the unprecedented sport of American football (like the science of concussions and head injuries).
DeflateGate is not about who said what to who, about how long it takes a young man to relieve himself before heading to the sideline, about whether a coach or player is popular or likeable, about whether anyone should have felt a drop in football pressure drop by squeezing the ball, or about whether deflation makes it easier or harder to hold, throw or catch a football. At least, this is not what it should be about. No, this controversy is simply about the pressure-drop in footballs during a cold, wet game. To determine whether or not pressure would have naturally dropped without tampering, the NFL needs a few scientists, not a team of lawyers on a witch hunt in need of a conspiracy. Most importantly, there is a simple, science-based process that NFL referees can easily follow to prevent similar problems in the future. It involves leaving the balls in sealed white bags at midfield for 90 minutes then adjusting ball pressure 15 minutes before kick-off.
Please consider these comments and feel free to publish, print, reproduce and pass on any portion of them.
Can't say that I blame you for not leaving open to comment your recent post on the fact that Erica Kinsman will tell her story publicly. However, there is a factual error in your report. Ms. Kinsman did not accuse Jameis Winston on December 7. She reported the sexual assault on December 7, telling police that she did not know the name of the person who had assaulted her. It was a little more than a month later when she learned Jameis Winston's identity, after the holiday break. She learned who he was during the roll-call at the first meeting of a class in the newest term, for which both parties had signed up. That's when she went to the police with a name. That date is part of the public record.
This is my first time i visit here. I found so many entertaining stuff in your blog, especially its discussion. From the tons of comments on your articles, I guess I am not the only one having all the leisure here! Keep up the good work. I have been meaning to write something like this on my website and you have given me an idea.builders in surat
To imply that if FSU struggles but wins out in any of its remaining games may cause the committee to react in such a way to remove them from the top 4 is possibly one of the silliest things I have ever read. Buckeye fan, you show your bias... poor journalism.
PS. you have a very good head, or mind for summing up College football. I enjoy your work. I just joined your spot on Twitter. I now follow you as JDnearby. I think you will like my poetry.
like ur choice of TCU a place 4 in 4Team playoff. They came on strong 80 points on TT and almost easy win on a very good Kansas State. Of course, if the SEC wants 2 Teams in the playoff, be fair to 30 other decent Teams and have a 32 Team playoff. This spreads the Tax dollars to more Teams, adds about $1BILLION TO playoffs in Tourist, merchandise among those 32 teams.
Remember all colleges receive Fed dollars, and if an angry congress and fan base ever get smart, this little 4 Team monster will lose steam rapidly.
If two or four teams from One conference OR ANOTHER think they are DIVINELY APPOINTED to PLAY in the NC GAME and DENY all other worthy TEAMS a chance, then it is TIME for a little March Madness in the world of college football. Lets have a REAL PLAYOFF and call it December MADNESS. And a $BILLION in travel and TEAM revenues.
Here we go again. College foot ball fans MEEKLY accepting the NONSENSE put out by the MEDIA that a REAL football playoff of 32 teams is IMPOSSIBLE, too burdensome, or TAKES too much TIME from CLASS.
Basketball does it with 64. College football can easily do it with a 32 team playoff. No more BITTER FANS screaming MY TEAM got LEFT OUT. Basketball has March Madness. COLLEGE FOOTBALL needs December Madness.
ALABAMA in all its GREATNESS Lost a last Second STUNNER. Then the UNFAIR bullet or restriction BACKFIRED on them. Now they and about 30 or 40 or 60 other schools MUST SIT on the sidelines and Compete for LESSER GLORY than the NC TITLE. This is Totally Unnecessary and listen or read on :
I thought America had no ROYATY. Prince William gets to be King of England by doing nothing. He was BORN that WAY.
I think that Alabama is a Magnificent machine , a Great football team, but it has humans on its team. Humans Err. They are not Gods. No team Deserves the NC Game. You lose . YOU are out.
The SEC IS a truly powerful Conference. Three years ago the BCS robbed Oklahoma State which was 11-1 the chance to play in the NC TITLE. REmember They were 11-1. Alabama was awarded the game against TWO LOSS LSU.
Nothing FAIR ABOUT THAT. Oklahoma State Would have been CHOSEN in a real Playoff. OKLAHOMA UPSET Alabama last year. In a continuation of Genuine PLAY They WOULD have met Florida state. TREVOR KNIGHT against the Seminoles. Do you like the ODDS.
NO BCS. No 4 TEAM Playoff. But a 32 Team or 64 TEAM Playoff can work. Here is how:
First, Leave all FBS teams with the Fun and Reward of Playing the 30 plus Bowl Games. And 4 PLAYOFF BOWLS would be used on Jan 1 each year for the Elite 8 CFB playoff BOWLS.
And A $BILLION IN PLAYOFF MONEY In Gate receipt$, Hotel, tourist MONEY, Sueveniers and TRAVEL for the cities and Teams involved.
A Simple Guide by J D
FACT: There are always 13 SATURDAYS in the 92 days of September thru November.
STEP ONE: Require all teams to finish their 12 GAMES by the END of NOVEMBER. There would be TIME for ONE OPEN DATE . Or TWO using the LAST SATURDAY in AUGUST.
STEP TWO: Have an NCAA selection committee PICK the TOP 32 Football Teams: FOUR Divisions would be set up:
East, South, Midwest, West.
Four Number One Seeds would be chosen in each Division and progressively on down: Number Two through Eight.
SEED Number One would play Number Eight, Number Two plays Number Seven and so on.
STEP THREE: SIXTEEN GAMES would be played ( 32 Chosen Teams) on the First Saturday in December. The SWEET SIXTEEN winners would play on the second Saturday in December.
STEP FOUR: The Elite Eight Winners are in the HIGHEST FOUR BOWLS called CHAMPIONSHIP BOWLS and would be played on New Years Day.
STEP FIVE: The FOUR QUARTER FINAL TEAMS play their TWO GAMES on January 8 or later.
STEP SIX : THE FINALS: 2 WINNERS would play a week later near January 17 for the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP.
Conclusion: Only FOUR TEAMS would NEED to PLAY past the HOLIDAY Weekend of January the 1st. And the REST of the TEAMS could GO BACK TO their Studies and Classes.
Also: The 30 plus BOWLS are kept . The LOSERS in the FIRST or SECOND Round can PLAY again in any BOWLS but the FOUR CHAMPIONSHIP BOWLS and win and rejoin the Top Twenty five.
Remember any team LOSING in the FIRST or SECOND WEEK of the Playoffs could STILL be INVITED to ONE of the 30 plus bowls.
IF TEAMS THINK They are the BEST, then let them PROVE IT on the Battlefield of Play. ONE team out of the 32 Teams chosen will win 5 games in a row and be true National Champ.!!!
Thanks for reading . My main concern is that somewhere, somehow, in my lifetime an Unfair 4 TEAM Playoff will be abolished. Every 8-3 team in the top 40 or 65 Teams will have respect and a chance to win it all.
This will bring in $1 BILLION dollars or more to the Teams and their Schools.
You are the man. I just finished reading your week 2 rankings, projections, and waiver tips. I gotta say, it was awesome. I laughed so hard at the "Green had one of the most spectacular plays this weekend that didn't involve giving a punter the Sweet Chin Music" line. I also loved the line about washington only throwing it within arms reach. I am fan, and I really like your writing style. I found this article very insightful and funny. I just wanted to say thanks and keep up the good work.
[Pours out a little liquor for Clay's fantasy value]
Are you HIGH, Like Smoke freaking a ton of crack in one sitting. Or do you not know much about Professional Basketball. Blazers improved their bench and the Stars are getting better every year. and you think they will do worse this year? McDonalds called and said they were looking for morons to hire, I gave them your phone number.
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