I think you under-estimated the likely improvement by the Dodgers. This was an 86-76 team in 2012 without Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonazalez, and Josh Beckett for more than half of the season, and Matt Kemp out for two months. With Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly presumably returning to health, and the additions of Zack Greinke, Carl Crawford, Ryu Hyun-jin, J.P. Howell and Skip Schumaker, you believe this improvement buys them only a net gain of three games over last year's record? Even if Luis Cruz does not perform as well as in 2012, this is a significantly improved team.