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After studying journalism at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio, Kristopher has been covering the NFL since 2008.
He has been a contributing writer for sites like Bleacher Report and served as assistant NFL editor for NationalFootballAuthority.com and as a managing editor for EndZoneNews.com.
His work has been featured on, or linked to on popular sites such as NFL.com, ESPN.com, CBSSports.com, Cleveland.com, YahooSports.com and FoxSports.com.
He has also done radio work with ESPN radio and has been a repeat guest on the Sam Bourquin show on 1480 WHBC in Canton, Ohio.
Kristopher can be followed on Twitter @Kris_Knox
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SCIENCE, DEFLATEGATE AND THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
DeflateGate has erupted onto the National stage, and seems poised to stay there through Superbowl Sunday and beyond. It has been a fascinating, tortured soap opera that has vexed most of us and brought out the worst in some of us. What if this controversy can be resolved through a more reasoned process? What if it could provide a teachable moment for the country about how justice and fairness can be undermined by our collective ignorance of established science and fact, and how what we don't know can distort our beliefs and actions? It is with such high hopes that I share these thoughts with you about under-inflated footballs.
To determine if the New England Patriots have violated NFL rules about ball inflation, the main question is, "Was the drop in ball pressure due to natural causes or tampering?" As Coach Belichick explained last Saturday, the best way to truly answer this question is to do an experiment. Before such an experiment, a scientist will need to form a testable hypothesis, a prediction, based on the facts of the situation and what is known about natural laws. In this case, the relevant physical law is the Ideal Gas Law (Pressure x Volume = n x R x Temperature) combined with the fact that friction generates heat.
Check out this informative video which also explains the science behind the pressure-drop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf8oQ4rhR-A
THE FOUR PHYSICAL PHASES OF DEFLATEGATE
Knowing the conditions at the AFC Championship game and how the Patriot’s footballs were treated, it’s not hard to anticipate the result based on the four different physical phases the balls went through. The logical prediction is that ball pressure would drop significantly below the NFL minimum 12.5 psi. In fact, this is a certainty:
1) Rubbing Phase - Before the AFC Championship game, Brady's balls were in the locker room, where the air temperature was likely 70-75 degrees. His balls were then rubbed vigorously for a substantial preparation period. The rubbing created heat from friction. The heat increased the air Temperature in the footballs above the indoor temperature. The warm air couldn't expand the footballs by much, so the Pressure would increase.
2) Cooling Phase A - Brady's warmed balls were given to referee Walt Anderson, who was asked to set the pressure at 12.5 psi. The warmed balls stayed in the official's locker room for over 2 hours and gradually cooled back to the indoor temperature. This initial drop in Temperature would result in a corresponding drop in Pressure (approx 1 psi per Coach Belichick).
3) Cooling Phase B - 10 minutes before kickoff, the balls were taken by NFL staff to the sideline. The temperature was approximately 50 degrees, but would have been lower on surfaces exposed to rain and wind-chill. Over the course of the first half, Brady's wet balls would have cooled to below 50 degrees. This second drop in ball Temperature would result in a further drop in ball Pressure (psi).
4) Stretching Phase - In addition, the leather of a wet football stretches, increasing the Volume inside it. Increased ball Volume would cause a third drop in ball Pressure (psi). Did you see the condition of the balls? Several pictures show them dripping wet and soaked through in the hands of the players and referees. The leather would have stretched - how much would have to be determined by experiment.
Taken together, these physical and climate factors would definitely drop the pressure in the footballs to substantially below the 12.5 psi set, per NFL protocol, by officials 2 hours pregame. This is not a possibility, it is a certainty.
Just like when you hold a solid object in your hand then let it go, it will fall according to physical laws (gravity), so it is that whenever a referee in their locker room inflates a warmed ball to the lower limit of 12.5 psi, then takes it out into cold, wet, windy weather, that ball will be underinflated 100% of the time. There is no question that this has happened countless times in late season, cold weather games throughout the history of the National Football League. Asterisks all around for everybody, especially the Packers!
THE UNFINISHED PHASE, THE NEXT STEP
Aside from the certainty of cold weather pressure drop, the real question we are left with is, "How much does it drop?" This will be answered not by rifling through the team's email, text messages and surveillance video, but rather by an experiment. Hence Coach Belichick's usual common sense in taking the opportunity to do just this before the team left Foxborough. Until someone else performs and documents the definitive experiment (several amateur scientists have posted attempts on YouTube), we should all take him at his word that ball pressure would have dropped enough, without any tampering, to account for what was observed by the referees during the recent AFC championship game.
THE BUREAUCRATIC PHASE, CATCH-22
It should be pointed out that an NFL football team could have avoided football deflation below the league minimum 12.5 psi in very cold weather by checking the ball pressure on the sideline during the game and pumping more air into them (increasing the “n” in the Ideal Gas Law). However, this would violate NFL rules by tampering with the balls. Teams have been placed by the NFL in an untenable situation where they’re “damned if you do and damned if you don’t”… and double-dog-damned if they happen to be the New England Patriots.
THE PSYCHOLOGICAL PHASE, THE BLIND LEADING THE BLIND
During this fascinating, frustrating, all-consuming week of DeflateGate, some might wonder how could so many intelligent, highly paid NFL executives and officials have established such a flawed rule, a rule that appear ignorant of the fact that cold weather drops ball Pressure.
The DeflateGate "scandal" rages on because so many remain mystified by the inexplicable deflation of footballs in a cold, wet game. The science needed to dispel this mystery is not hard to grasp. In fact, the ideal gas law was formulated back in 1834, and is taught in high school physics class. Tragically, many journalists and commentators lack this knowledge and have plunged ahead recklessly with false accusations and little curiosity about the basic facts of the matter. They think that for the pressure to drop significantly, someone must have let air out of the Patriots balls. They just know it. Emboldened by ignorance and sinister suspicion, they have proclaimed the Patriots must have cheated by intentionally let air out of the balls by tampering with them. We wonder why so many media pundits have been so blind to their ignorance.
Answers to these questions come from the other important scientific field at play in DeflateGate: Cognitive and Social Psychology. Discussion of this is complex and goes way beyond the issue of football pressure, but is extremely relevant to the media and society at large. If you are interested, please look up "Cognitive Bias" and "The Dunning-Kruger effect: Why The Incompetent Don’t Know They’re Incompetent".
The science of cognitive bias is necessary to help us to understand how overconfident NFL officials established unworkable inflation rules. It also helps us to better understand why so many pundits have failed to appreciate the reasons for football deflation in a cold wet game yet have gone on to lob accusations of ball tampering with great confidence and righteous indignation (and a few tears).
THE FINAL PHASE, A DEFINITIVE SOLUTION
While the science of human cognition and its limitations is probably powerless to eliminate the mass hysteria of DeflateGate, Obama birthers or Climate change luddites, high school physics can reliably keep NFL footballs properly inflated during games in any kind of weather. It could, in some small way, embody the way an enlightened society can solve problems in a rational, effective manner. Like most true solutions, the fix for NFL balls is simple, cost effective and elegant. Here it is:
1) Keep the current process of the teams giving their game balls to the officials 2-3 hours before kick-off. The officials have time to inspect the balls and allow time to correct any concerns.
2) At least 90 minutes before kick-off, the officials place the balls in breathable tamper proof bags or other containers, seal the containers with tamper-proof fasteners, and take them down to the field. This will allow the air inside the footballs to equilibrate to the climactic conditions (i.e. temperature) on the field.
3) The bags should be placed in plain sight of both teams, fans and officials in the center of the field. In any case, they must not be left near sideline heaters or fans.
4) The outside of the containers should be reflective White in color. (If the containers were black or other dark color and left in the sun, they will heat up the balls and prevent equilibration.
5) Whether to keep the balls dry from any rain will have to be determined.
6) The officials will break open the tamper-proof seals 10-20 minutes before kickoff, remove the balls, and adjust air pressure to NFL specifications.
7) Officials should be allowed to check and readjust ball pressures at half-time or other times during the game.
DeflateGate is the unfortunate outcome of irrational rules for pregame football inflation that have been adopted by NFL executives, lawyers and business owners who clearly lacked common sense and a knowledge of basic high-school physics. Robert Kraft’s indignation is certainly justified, but should be tempered by the realization that he joined so many others in implementing these rules. While apparently competent to manage business and legal matters, one wonders about the competency of NFL officials to handle all the other important matters facing the unprecedented sport of American football (like the epidemic of concussions and head injuries, for which there is also a simple scientific solution).
DeflateGate is not about who said what to who, about whether a coach or player is popular or likeable, about whether anyone should have felt a drop in football pressure by squeezing the ball, about how long it takes a ball-boy to relieve himself before heading to the sideline, or about whether deflation makes it easier or harder to hold, throw or catch a football. At least, this is not what it should be about. No, this controversy is simply about the pressure-drop in footballs during a cold, wet game. To determine whether or not pressure would have naturally dropped without tampering, the NFL needs a few scientists, not a team of lawyers on a witch hunt in need of a conspiracy. Most importantly, there is a simple, science-based process that NFL referees can easily follow to prevent similar problems in the future. It involves leaving the balls in sealed white bags at midfield for 90 minutes then adjusting ball pressure 15 minutes before kick-off.
Please consider these comments and feel free to publish, print, reproduce and pass on any portion of them.
Just thought I would stop by & ask you how foolish you feel now actually printing that ridiculous Defensive Power Rankings back in August? Your total lack of research is definitely showing up as you said Miami lost alot of Defense players & did not replace them. Ask the Bears offense what they think of the Dolphins Defense. Funny thing when I click on Total Defense on ESPN.com right now Miami is listed at # 1. Your poor Browns you ranked 6th are way back at 20.
Next time do some research & do not rank with your heart.
here are the highlights for you Seahawks articles https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfgbSKvGiWo
According to Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, Smith had initially planned to retire as a Panther following the 2014 season. Allowing him to do so would have been the respectful way for the Panthers to say goodbye to the longtime face of the franchise. THIS IS THE CAROLINA PANTHERS & NOT THE STEVE SMITHS! WE WANT TO WIN WHO CARES ABOUT RESPECT & A 6-10 team? NOT THE PANTHERS!
Kristopher Knox Do you even watch football? Steve Smith time with the PANTHERS WAS over AND HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN RELEASED A YEAR EARLIER. You have to move forward if you want to compete. SS was a great player.Now he needs to play elsewhere to allow others to expand in their play. The Panthers need to improve to be winners not Steve Smith! He is/will always be one of my favorites but time to move on. He would only hold new blood down on this team. Come on now. .
Mike Andrus, read this idiot of a writer's Bio. He's a Cleveland Beat writer. Don't you realize they HATE anything MIAMI? The guy's a f**k*ng joke.
Can I ask you a question? Do you ever do any research before you write articles? Your analysis of Miami is so far from the truth its a joke. Within the last week I have heard several NFL experts say they expect Miami's D to be within in the top 10 & I even heard 1 say the top 5. A couple of them were from the NFL Network Channel. Atleast if you are going to rank them that low have a legit reason for it. Miami let go of ZERO players from last year that have not been replaced & upgraded. At DB maybe you forgot about the young crop of DB's waiting their turn? Although Jordon is expected to have a huge role the fact that he is out 4 weeks is not a concern with Wake & Vernon starting at DE. Miami easily has a top 5 defensive front $ in the game & their Defensive backfield also may end up being amoung the best.
Please reserch before writing such stupid statements
In your win/loss article its like you treat the Packers as if they were the same team last from last year. They got a new defense with lots of potential and one of the leagues best offenses.
I think that the piece you wrote about the Giants in your win/loss projection article was a little misguided. You referred to Chris Snee as a standout offensive lineman which hasn't been the case since 2011. You mentioned the loses of Nicks (who did nothing last year) and tuck but didn't mention the acquisitions of players like Geoff Schwartz, Jennings, DRC, Beckham Jr., or Trindon Holliday. Obviously players like Holliday aren't stars but they provide a huge upgrade in areas from years past. It seems fairly undeniable that the Giants have improved from last year. Eli Manning is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the NFL and I think it is fair to assume that he will be able to learn the new offense by the start of the year.