Bleacher Report - Peyton Manning

Chris J. Nelson's Week 12 NFL Game Predictions

Chris J. Nelson — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:53:01 -0500

Man, I knew I should have picked Denver at home on a short week. Oh well. At least I had a good week last week.

Last week's record: 12-4
Season record: 108-52 (67.5%)

Falcons over Buccaneers — Tampa Bay appears to be a long way off right now and Atlanta at home should have no problem handling their division rival, regardless of whether or not Michael Turner plays.

Dolphins over Bills — Buffalo's offensive line and secondary has been hit hard with injuries recently, swinging the advantage even farther toward the Dolphins. I like Miami on the road in this one.

Bengals over Browns — Brady Quinn had a fantastic day against the league's worst pass defense in Detroit last week, but he won't have that luxury again. Cincinnati is the much better team from top to bottom and I can't envision them losing.

Seahawks over Rams — In a battle between two dismal NFC West franchises, the difference could come down to the presence of Rams running back Steven Jackson. The Pro Bowler missed every practice this week with a back injury and is considered a game-time decision. Considering the Rams promoted rookie running back Chris Ogbonnaya from the practice squad today, I'm going to guess Jackson won't play and that the Seahawks will take advantage.

Jets over Panthers — Mark Sanchez has really come back down to earth lately and is just giving games away right now. Still, Carolina's pretty unimpressive and isn't as committed to the run as they should be, so I'm taking the Jets' strong defense at home.

Eagles over Redskins — Washington gave Dallas a game last week and could do the same against another division rival tomorrow. Still, Philadelphia is a much more talented squad and they have to be the pick.

Colts over Texans — Far less-talented Houston teams have beaten far more-talented Indianapolis teams in the past, but I can't justify picking against the Colts with the way Peyton Manning is playing right now.

Chargers over Chiefs — Kansas City pulled off the surprise upset against a much better Steelers team last week, but I don't see it happening two weeks in a row. San Diego is better and should win this one.

Jaguars over 49ers — It's never easy flying to the west coast, and Jacksonville arrives in San Francisco with some very unimpressive play lately despite some wins. Still, I just don't like much about the Niners except for a handful of players and I'm going to predict Maurice Jones-Drew leads the Jaguars to victory.

Cardinals over Titans — Tennessee has reeled off some wins recently with their quarterback change, but all the credit is due to running back Chris Johnson. However, I'm predicting they get taken down a peg and upset by Arizona this week.

Vikings over Bears — Chicago's offensive line is woeful, while Minnesota's gives Brett Favre all the time in the world to throw. I can't justify picking the Bears in this one.

Ravens over Steelers — Pittsburgh is certainly a talented squad and maybe even better than Baltimore at full strength, but I can't pick Dennis Dixon to win this one on his first start on the road against a very good Ravens team.

Patriots over Saints — New England is getting hot and they present one of the best challenges remaining for the Saints this season. I say Tom Brady wins a big one on the road.

Chris J. Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University. He operates his own Miami Dolphins web site, The Miami Dolphins Spotlight, and can be followed on Twitter here.

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What Makes an NFL MVP?

Paul Preibisius — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 17:39:12 -0500

As the NFL season starts ramping towards its playoff push, award conjectures start to crop up all over the place, especially in article-submitted locales such as Bleacher Report. But what constitutes an MVP? How are arguments and favorites created? What is the ultimate deciding factor?

In other sports it can be much easier to discern, baseball mostly excuses pitchers from MVP voting because of the Cy Young (from 1987 to now only one, Dennis Eckersley in 1992). We can therefore look to the combination of the same four stats each year to p decide it, it is about how a player handles himself at the plate—defense and quality of player interaction don't weigh in heavily. Basketball is similarly placed where an individual talent can be simply looked at statistically and probably determined without ever watching that fellow play.

Football is much tougher. We know weight is given to offense before defense—though it is not impossible for a defensive player to win the award. If things stand as they are at present, Elvis Dummervil of Denver is on pace for 20 1/3 sacks. With a team not particularly thought of as a defensive juggernaut, to go with a better than expected team record, how come this name is not mentioned in MVP circles alongside Jared Allen (and his pace for 16.8 sacks)? Allen is a great player, probably even a better player. Yet with a superior supporting cast he has the weaker numbers.

Ahh well, let us ignore the sack-totals for now. Tackles and interceptions are even more rarely used as a primary tool for deciding a league mvp. This is understandable as the differences in separation have been much smaller. Darren Sharper’s Seven picks are one behind the leader (Jairius Byrd of Buffalo), and his renaissance has been heavily factored into New Orleans defensive improvement.

Tackles are even more difficult with seven guys in a span between 86 and 101 tackles at this point. Though you rarely see the leaders Curtis Lofton (101) and Patrick Willis (96) in any mvp arguments. So we can eliminate tackles as a probable source.

Ultimately the few names in the running on this side of the football just don’t have the absolutely gaudy statistics required to overcome the offensive bias in MVP voting. If Darren Sharper keeps turning his picks into points all on his own, or Jared Allen makes use of his capacity for a monster single game, either one could dark horse into the top five, but none will do better than fourth this year.

Next we stride along to the flash and sizzle of what the NFL wants to sell—offense. This is broken into passing yards/completion percentage/QB rating, receiving yards and receptions, rushing yards/yards per carry, and everyone shares that old favorite, the touchdown.

It would be fine to leave it at that if the award was accredited to the most statistically superior player. Peyton Manning is on pace for 5072 yard to end the year, Brett Favre leads quarterback rating at 112.1, touchdowns are a wash at this point with six guys between 20 and 22. Assuming everyone keeps the same pace they are on it is a matter of Manning’s roughly 1,100 yard advantage (Favre is on pace for 3986) to Favre’s 9.4 point higher rating. This gives Manning the MVP award from a pure statistical outlook.

Except we then have to cope with Chris Johnson and his pace for 1987 yards on the year. As a player who is seeing his rushing totals going up, that could easily end up eclipsing 2,000 which would warrant a statistical argument on his behalf.

The closest competition at running back is from Steven Jackson and Adrian Peterson, both looking to end around the 1,600 yard mark, not enough to dent Manning’s 5,000 or Johnson’s flirtation with 2,000.

Reggie Wayne is the closest wideout statistically, on pace for 120 catches for nearly 1,600 yards with 12.8 TD’s. Should he continue that pace he would statistically keep up with Johnson and Manning.

Now that we have narrowed it to basically three guys, we will take the cold hard facts and start molding them a la voting considerations with the less concrete factors. The media darling-ness is factor number one. Right now the ‘sexy’ teams are the Vikings and Saints, so we look to Jared Allen again, Adrian Peterson again, the silver fox himself, return to Sharper, and now must add Drew Brees into the equation. Sharper is the instant elimination here, he is a great player but not the guy reporters jam mic’s in front of.

Jared Allen is very media friendly. He is the only real chance at a defensive player getting league MVP because of this, Jared Allen sells. Is this enough to outweigh the other factors, probably not but it will get him a few slots higher in total mvp voting than probably warranted. Now we have Adrian Peterson.

He is much more interesting to those with microphones and flashbulbs than Chris Johnson, the Vikes are the team everyone outside of cheeseland are rooting for, and he’s been ‘the guy’ in the purple palace for several years now.

Favre, the final of the Minnesota trio, is media mecca. Whether people love him or hate him, the guy would be a hot media sell even as an average player, throw in the inexplicable year no one would have guessed and you have the recipe for media frenzy. While good sells, the biggest media hurdle in the way of AP or mr. mullet would be Favre, and beyond any other guy, wins the sexy pick here.

After the pure media rigamarole, we also must deal with the fact that past considerations weigh in on present seasons. In the last twelve years there have been only two repeat mvp’s, and both times they were given the title as co-mvps. Ironically two of the main names in consideration, Favre and Manning, are those two players.

Favre’s distant MVP past and troubles last season serve as a benefit to him fro a historical regard. Manning, with another MV award last year, will be hampered on this front. He may also be hurt by the precedent an NFL first fourth MVP award would set.

Drew Brees stands to be helped the most from his past season, where his 5,000 yards were mvp numbers yet he did not take home the award. With media attention ramping up in New Orleans, it would appear he will be able to run close enough to the others in media attention and stats, that this one factor could tilt the bar his way.

Record is another indicator used with MVP’s. Drew Brees ended a monster personal season with an average 8-8 record, the result was a Peyton Manning award. This year Chris Johnson looks to have the best chance of any non quarterback to take home the award, but his Titans are still working out of an 0-6 hole to start the year.

8-8 will be a great accomplishment for the team at this point, but it will not help Chris Johnson’s case for the award. Short of an undefeated 10-6, he falls by the wayside to quarterbacks helming teams looking at deep playoff runs. The Saints, Vikings, and Colts have one loss among the entire group. This astounding number puts in squarely back into the court of Favre/Brees/Manning.

The final, most subjective matter is where would the team be without them ? Given an average replacement guy taking the helm, what would the team do? A name not mentioned yet here, but probably going to crack the top five- Tom Brady, is a good example.

He is a great leader and valuable of course. But if the Patriots go 12-4 this year pundits will hurt his chances with the idea that he only improved the team by one win. Favre is simultaneously helped and hindered by last year.

team will likely improve by a minimum of three games (10-6 to 13-3) probably four. This is significant (and something Brady cannot do). But they still were a division winning playoff team last year with Jackson behind center. The Saints had Drew Brees (and basically the same receiving corps) and put together an 8-8 season.

Peyton Manning is the wildcard. Everything about Indi without him is subjective, he didn’t play elsewhere, he didn’t miss time, and the Colts did fine last year. Yet one must contend that with one team sporting three candidates, neither one of those three is quite as indispensible. With a host of injuries and a turnover at head coach, Manning has continued his winning ways. I do not think a Matt Cassel situation happens in Indi with Peyton Manning on the bench.

Ultimately I think the race will be close between Manning/Brees/and Favre, none of the non-quarterbacks possibilities have enough to catch up to the value (as well as mvp positional bias) that these three present. When it all wraps up, Favre will win comeback player of the year as an attempt at making up for Peyton Manning edging out Drew Brees for his fourth MVP award.

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Silva Thankgiving Red Zone: Maroney can be a go-to guy

Evan Silva — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 12:16:32 -0500

Thanksgiving is always a weird time. Maybe because it's the only time of the year that we get a couple days off just to recover from our impending poultry hangovers (and spend time with family, but come on, I'm in it for the Turkey).

Or, more likely, it could be that this Thursday is the one day per year we are forced to choose between watching an entire Lions game or talking to your Uncle Rick about the Do's and Don'ts of power walking; incidentally, also the only day of the year the Lions are guaranteed to win something (our attention).

Now before your put on the bib, loosen your belt and get ready to dive into dinner, don't forget: Fantasy Football starts on Thursday this week again. So make sure to cover all your bases, and read this week's Red Zone Report so you can enjoy your Turkey-induced football haze all weekend.

Brian Leonard, Bengals RB

Although Bernard Scott had a very nice game filling in for Cedric Benson, something else caught my eye: the pride of Piscataway, Brian Leonard. Since watching him leap over defenders at Rutgers, I've always had a little thing for Leonard. Not only does he have good speed (ran a 4.50 at the combine), but Leonard has great size (6'1" 226). This skill combo would seem to make him a good candidate to be the bigger "goal line" half of a two-headed running back attack, and Marvin Lewis seems to agree.

Although Scott had 21 carries to Leonard's 13, the split in important situations was far different. Scott only had three of the Bengals' 11 carries in the Red Zone, and none on the goal line. Leonard, on the other hand, got seven out of 11 RZ carries and all 3 GL carries.

While both of these backs will return to irrelevancy upon Benson's impending return, this week's matchup against Cleveland makes them more important than ever. I still expect Scott to get more overall touches than Leonard, but (if Benson is out) it will be Leonard dominating the carries in scoring situations; which, against the Browns, there should be a lot of.

If Cedric Benson is out and you are desperate for a RB, Brian Leonard is a great pickup. Not only is Bernard Scott most likely owned in your league, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Rutgers alum put up the better game if Benson is out. If for some reason Benson is out next week also, the Bengals face Detroit, meaning owners in deeper leagues may be able to get two valuable games out of Brian Leonard down the stretch.

Jermichael Finley, Packers TE

Finley was, by far, my favorite pick in drafts this past August—along with Brandon Jacobs, grr—and now it looks like he's finally ready to cash in. Finley looked to be just turning the corner before getting injured in Week Seven against the Browns, totaling 182 yards and a touchdown in his previous two games. His return last week went quite well. He had seven catches for 54 yards, including a career-high 10 targets from Aaron Rodgers. In addition Finley saw four RZ targets in his return to lineup (think Mr. Rodgers is happy to have him back in the neighborhood?).

This week, Finley faces Detroit, and the super-athletic hybrid tight end should rip them apart. It's always a crap shoot predicting TEs, but with this guy's crazy combo of speed and strength, his owners could be in for a huge day. Go pick him up. Go start him. Enjoy watching him tear it up on Turkey Day.

Laurence Maroney, Patriots RB

It took a few more years than expected, but Maroney is finally turning out to be the player the New England thought they were drafting a few years ago. Since Fred Taylor has gone down, Maroney has become the man for the Patriots. Not only has he played well, but he's gained the full trust of his coaches in scoring situations.

Going into Week Six, Maroney had received just three of New England's 24 RZ carries (12.5 percent), and none of the three GL carries. Since then, he's gotten 22 of 27 RZ carries (81 percent), and all eight GL carries. I'd never thought I'd say this, but, Maroney is a definite RB2 for the rest of the season. Although his schedule isn't a cake walk, he won't face any particularly tough run defenses, and sees Buffalo (one of the worst run defenses) in the Week 15.

Pierre Thomas, Saints RB

Honestly, it's pretty much impossible to figure out what Sean Payton will do next. While this wasn't quite as egregious to fantasy owners as having seven different players score touchdowns, giving Pierre Thomas just one out of New Orleans' seven RZ carries makes no sense. When healthy, Thomas—as I covered last week—is clearly their most explosive player, and has shown the ability to be an effective short yardage back as well. Unfortunately, Payton doesn't seem to care about keeping his approach consistent.

Despite averaging a shade over six carries in his past two games, Payton put the ball in Mike Bell's hands when it mattered most during Week 11. Bell's six RZ carries, and three on the GL explain why he had two touchdowns to Thomas' goose egg. Although Thomas still managed to have a respectable fantasy day (92 rushing yards, 11 receiving), a trip into the end zone would've been much appreciated.

Despite Bell's big game, I can't justify calling this anything more than another annoying tale in the saga of Sean Payton disappointing (who am I kidding—screwing over) fantasy owners. Pierre Thomas is still, clearly, the most talented player in the Saints backfield, and should produce the most fantasy value from here on out. However, Payton's propensity to share the ball around the goal line has to scare Thomas owners, and does depress his value somewhat. Having said that, his prolific running ability should be enough to overcome losing some scoring chances, Thomas is still a very solid RB2 the rest of the way.

Steve Slaton, Texans RB

Has there been anyone more frustrating to own than Steve Slaton? Not only did he lose his job after costing a high draft pick, but then, after being pronounced dead to fantasy owners, he finds a way into the end zone two weeks in a row. Slaton has averaged just over seven touches over the past three games, so there was no way you could've started him with any confidence these past two weeks. In addition, Chris Brown got 11 carries to Slaton's five this past week, further indicating that coach Gary Kubiak is more undecided on the Texans starting RB than Washington is on universal health care.

Kubiak knows Slaton is undoubtedly the most talented RB on his team, but has some serious trust issues with him stemming from Slaton fumbling seven times in Houston's first eight games.

Despite my loathing of Slaton (fantasy speaking of course, he's probably a nice enough guy), I think the smartest move for Houston would be to go back to the dynamic runner as their No. 1 RB. Unfortunately, this transition won't be as easy for Kubiak, and may not even happen this season. Going forward we know a few things for certain:

1. Steve Slaton is the best player in the Houston backfield.
2. Some combination of Chris Brown and Ryan Moats will see more Red Zone and GL carries than Slaton.

The Texans' next four games are run friendly (IND, JAC, SEA, STL), meaning Slaton could conceivably come back into fantasy relevance. I would take the wait and see approach with this week against the Colts (unless you're really desperate), and if he manages to get 12-15 touches he should be a matchup RB2 until Week 16 against Miami.

Rock Cartwright, Redskins RB

There have been a lot of awesome sports names over the years: Patrick Pass (Patriots FB), God Shammgod (NBA), Fat Lever (NBA), and Pooh Richardson (NBA). Rock Cartwright may be the coolest. There's something about his name that just screams: SHAFT! Great name aside, Cartwright has crept into fantasy relevance as a result of every other RB on the Skins being hurt.

Just about a week before his 30th birthday, Cartwright will get a chance to be the No. 1 RB for the first time since the end of the 2003 season. While it's hard to figure out just what to expect out of the career kick returner, one thing is in his favor: he has no peers, literally.

Totaling 140 yards from scrimmage (67 rushing, 73 receiving), Cartwright was excellent in Week 11. Unlike most RBs, he won't have to worry about anyone stealing touches in the Red Zone or anywhere else (sorry to all the Quinton Ganther fans reading this). Going forward Cartwright faces a bunch of middle of the pack run defenses, (PHI, NO, NYG, DAL), but he does travel to Oakland in Week 14 to face the hapless Raiders.

If you're living paycheck by paycheck with running backs, it may be worth picking up Cartwright and stashing him for that game (when, assuming they keep Portis out, Rock would be a great RB2). Aside from Week 14, I would call Cartwright a decent flex option as long as Clinton Portis is held out with concussions symptoms.

Justin Forsett, Seahawks RB

Despite getting nothing on the ground against the staunch Vikings run defense, Justin Forsett showed us all how explosiveness has a tendency to make up for many ills. I covered him extensively in last week's article, but I'll just say it again. This guy has a great schedule from here on out (STL, SF, HOU, and TB) and is a sure fire RB2 the rest of the way.

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Vince Young and the Circumstantial Nature of Winning in the NFL

Ryan Michael — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 00:48:08 -0500

He's a winner, plain and simple.

Have you ever heard someone say that "you can put up all the flashy numbers you want but at the end of the say, it is the W that is most important"?

Well if that is true, feast your eyes upon one of the league's most valuable players.

And if the small sample size we've had to work with is any indication of the future that is to come, feast your eyes upon a future Hall of Famer.

22-11, that's Vince Young's record as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

That's an astounding 0.666 winning percentage.

Higher than a number of active quarterbacks whom you might have heard of, Kurt Warner (0.577), Drew Brees (0.560), and Aaron Rodgers (0.462) just to name a few.

As a matter of fact, it isn't even close.

Do you think that Drew Brees is a good quarterback, one of the very best in the league perhaps?

Well it is Vince Young who wins more often.

Heck, so does Rex Grossman (0.613).

As a matter of fact, Vince Young has a greater winning percentage than most Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

For argument's sake, I'll name a few...

Steve Young (0.657), Johnny Unitas (0.645), John Elway (0.643), and Dan Marino (0.613).

Yes, the sample size we have to work with is MUCH smaller.

Understand that in no way am I trying to argue that Vince Young is better than these Hall of Famers, nor do I seek to imply that people would be foolish enough to agree.

My point rather is regarding the circumstantial nature of winning in the NFL.

As stated before, you've heard the people who have preached "results" over "big numbers" which really means "quarterback who wins more games" over the quarterback who is more productive on the field.

Productive and Vince Young don't fit in the same sentence.

Despite being one of the best scramblers in the game (the versatility that is said to be Young's "X-Factor") he has also been one of the least productive starting quarterbacks in the league.

Not compared to let's say, a Tarvaris Jackson.

But to put Vince Young in the same breath as the Mannings, Brees, and Bradys is an insult.

Not to say that people have jumped on his bandwagon that fast this season but there was a time when this man managed to secure a trip to Hawaii (as an alternate, mind you, but still).

Interceptions are much more a specialty of Vince Young's than touchdowns.

25 touchdowns to 34 interceptions.

Interceptions, low completion percentage and lack of production are all in a days work for Vince Young, but if you're someone the likes of Aaron Rodgers with all of your yards, touchdowns, and less-frequent interceptions, expect to walk off the field a loser far more often than Vince Young.

So if far more productive players are winning less often, why is it that Vince Young is running around with a HOF-caliber winning percentage while others struggle to make their teams relevant?

Could it be that their running game, defense, special teams, and coaching staffs also contribute to their chances of winning?

Could it be that different players of different calibers will achieve different results playing under different circumstances?

If the "W's" are the most telling aspect of a quarterbacks value, The Packers better offer to trade Aaron Rodgers for Vince Young right away.

I'm sure the Titans wouldn't mind.

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Manning's Legend Enhanced By Focus on Numbers as Fantasy Becomes Reality

Andrew Nuschler — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 14:22:03 -0500

Whenever you pump the brakes on the adoration showered upon a great player, the torch-wielding mob comes a-runnin'. Instead of axes and pitchforks, they're armed with t-shirts featuring said player's smiling mug and zealous advocacy for his or her prestige.

Who can really blame them?

I've been known to dust off the metaphoric shovel and grab a Tim Lincecum jersey when anyone tries to diminish the Freak's ironic stature in Major League Baseball—as has been said before, "fan" is short for "fanatic."

However, I'm really not trying to imply Peyton Manning isn't excellent.

The Indianapolis Colts' quarterback is quite possibly the best regular season signal-caller the National Football League has ever seen. His ability at the position rates, without question, amongst the finest to ever take a snap. Given a more ideal set of circumstances, the dude might have been the best QB the League has ever seen, period.

At 33-years-old, Peyton Manning still has plenty of time to yank that title away from Joe Montana, or whoever you think has it.

But...

You make your career out of what is and was, not what could have been or might eventually be.

The fact of the matter is, absent a professional sports' culture that's becoming increasingly infatuated with statistics and individual achievement, the elder Manning wouldn't be placed on the mantle alongside a three-time Super Bowl winner like the New England Patriots' Tom Brady or a four-timer like Joe Cool based on his body of work to date.

Understand—I'm not arguing this is right/wrong, better/worse, or attaching any other judgment to it (although it's quite obvious where my personal feelings on the matter lie).

For the sake of this discussion, I'm simply saying it's the truth.

Football has always been considered the ultimate team game where the W is unequivocally paramount. Quarterbacks have always received the lion's share of the spotlight so their grades have always reflected this premium more so than other positions.

While a championship helps any player's reputation, the studs behind center haven't been able to enter the pantheon of all-time greatness without a Super Bowl ring. Additionally, it's been tough to improve your position once inside without adding to your jewelry case.

Why?

I'm not an expert, but I'd argue it's because football features no individual achievements now that Barry Sanders is a distant memory.

Successful series require a harmony of moving parts more numerous and intricate than an outsider like me can possibly identify, much less appreciate. The reality of even the outstanding "individual" effort is inevitably a concerted effort involving no less than five or six men.

Someone with a deeper knowledge of the game could probably formulate a very persuasive case for an offense-defense-special-teams synergy as well. You know, field position, time of possession, scoring, and how it affects defensive play-calling, and so forth.

Since quarterbacks serve as rough proxies for the team, most pigskin observers consider their individual statistics like touchdowns, passing yards, and quarterback rating only slightly more dispositive about the individual than the win or loss (within reason).

Or at least they did.

Although the fundamental, coordinated nature of football hasn't changed, the perception is slowly slipping.

With the onset of fantasy sports, the infatuation with the individual is elbowing its way into the conversation. Think about it—how many times have you been watching a game and rooting for Player X on one team, Player Y on another, and with total disregard to the ultimate outcome?

I'm not even a huge fantasy guy and I know that happens to me on a weekly basis. In fact, I've even rooted for one of my fantasy squad while he's playing against the Niners. Admittedly, it's with the caveat that it doesn't actually hurt the fellas.

Suddenly, a good day from a quarterback turns into 350 yards, three touchdowns, and one pick. Who cares whether the team wins or loses—you don't get points for that. Usually a good fantasy day coincides with a winning effort, but not always and you quickly learn to stop seeing a difference.

Not only that—the fantasy season ends along with the regular season. Obviously, the entire football world perks up when the playoffs start so it'd be foolish to claim the fantasy games have eroded the significance of the second season.

Of course, it'd be equally foolish to claim the interest in the regular season hasn't been ratcheted up by the popularity of the fantasy games. Interest in one can gain without taking a bite out of its counterpart.

Which brings me back to Peyton Manning—both phenomena seem tailored to his resume.

Everyone knows he's setting NFL regular season records on a weekly basis, and he'll continue to do so until his career ends. We know about the Most Valuable Player awards and the rest of the glittering individual accolades. We know if someone asks you who's leading the NFL in a quarterbacking statistic; the Colt is a pretty safe bet.

We know all this for good reason—Peyton Manning deserves every single ounce of respect and attention he gets for those very substantial feats.

Yet Manning, himself, will probably tell you that's not what the real game is about.

I'm confident he'd tell you that because he must've already learned the lesson well—do you think he'd trade some of his college laurels for one win against the blood-rival Florida Gators? Maybe a National Championship?

And that brings into play a couple other truths about Peyton Manning.

We also know he's 7-8 in the playoffs and we've all watched him become a shadow of his regular season self in those contests. I could tally off some shockingly condemning numbers, but that'd be strange having devoted so many previous inches to attacking the true significance of such numbers.

Luckily, I don't need them—the eye test is conclusive.

Instead of precise and decisive lasers, Playoff Peyton is far more prone to some grade-A Gumby shoulders and unbelievable bouts of gloom on the sidelines—unbelievable in that no leader of any group should EVER look the way Peyton Manning does when things get bumpy.

There just isn't the same resolve.

It's like one of the game's greatest minds over thinks the situation. The higher stakes seem to create a moment of doubt—maybe an extra split-second to clear the target of any exotic turnover monsters that might've been saved for the postseason. It's not that he's horrible—for whatever reason, something is just off and the results reflect the snag.

Yet Peyton Manning's legend grows with every regular season yard he piles onto his obscene career total, with every extra touchdown he puts in his trophy case. Somehow, a guy with one ring—courtesy of arguably the most underwhelming performance by a QB on his way to football's biggest prize ever—and a sub-.500 playoff record gets mentioned in the same breath with the NFL's biggest winners.

The undeniable evidence shows this is quarterback who dominates the regular season on an annual basis, then becomes either a poor, average, or better-than-average snap-taker when the heat is on.

Whichever adjective you choose, the fact is Peyton Manning regresses when his team needs him most—asked to do what he has been doing all season, he has routinely failed. You can make any number of excuses—ranging from legitimate to absurd—but they're all irrelevant because you can make similar excuses for any of the all-time greats.

Maybe even for any quarterback at all.

If you want to start making allowances for every imperfection in a quarterback's supporting cast, you must do that for every quarterback in the discussion and the entire thing deteriorates into a meaningless morass of hypothetical.

Nobody has the perfect situation—gotta play 'em as they lay.

Heretofore, these blatant truths would keep anyone out of the most rarefied air. Even a statistical monster like Peyton Manning. For better or worse, that seems to be changing.

What a brave new world...

**www.pva.org**

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Chris J. Nelson's Week 11 NFL Game Predictions

Chris J. Nelson — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 11:27:03 -0500

After a handful of mediocre weeks, I rebounded somewhat with a 10-correct showing last weekend.

One game has already been played this week, and I'm sorry to say I picked the Carolina Panthers at home against a Miami Dolphins team that struggled against a pretty poor Tampa Bay squad the week before. Oops.

Last week's record: 10-5
Season record: 96-48 (66.7%)

Cowboys over Redskins — Dallas lost a tough on in Green Bay last week, but there's still a lot to like about this team—especially if Washington is without their defensive anchor in Albert Haynesworth.

Lions over Browns — Well is this the game of the week or what? Somebody has to win (well, probably) and I think there's a little more to like about the Lions than there is the Browns right now. Regardless of who wins though, it's going to be an ugly one.

Packers over 49ers — An interesting matchup, this one is tough to pick because the Niners are better than people thought, and the Packers are worse than people thought. I still like the Packers at home against Alex Smith.

Steelers over Chiefs — Kansas City simply is not there yet, and I don't expect the Steelers to have any problem winning this one.

Vikings over Seahawks — Seattle hasn't been very consistent this year, and they just don't have the talent to match up with the Vikings on either side of the ball.

Giants over Falcons — Both of these teams have been a bit disappointing at times this season, but I have a hard time totally buying New York's slide. The G-Men are too talented to lose for this long, so I'm predicting they rebound at home today.

Saints over Buccaneers — New Orleans has been playing with fire for weeks now by playing down to some weaker opponents, but they still should be able to beat a pretty bad Tampa Bay squad.

Jaguars over Bills — The first team to fire they head coach this season, the situation in Buffalo is an absolute mess. Jacksonville is very inconsistent, but they could explode against the Bills today.

Colts over Ravens — This should be a very good game, but I like the Colts in this one. It's hard enough to put pressure on Peyton Manning no matter who you have, and missing Terrell Suggs could be problematic.

Cardinals over Rams — Arizona has been a bit of a disappointment this season after an NFC Championship in 2008, but you still have to like that offensive firepower against a shaky Rams defense. I expect a big game from Cardinals rookie running back Beanie Wells.

Chargers over Broncos — I probably would have always picked San Diego in this one because I just didn't fully buy Denver's hot start, but I especially like the Chargers with what has to be a very rusty Chris Simms at quarterback for the Broncos.

Bengals over Raiders — Cedric Benson is being extremely overhyped—the result of a high number of carried to accumulate yards and a good team around him—but the Bengals should have no problem handling the Raiders. Expect a big game from rookie running back Bernard Scott in Benson's absence.

Patriots over Jets — A great divisional battle between a hot New England offense and a tough Jets defense, I think the Pats rebound from their Monday Night Football controversy with a strong win here.

Eagles over Bears — The Bears have Devin Hester, but the Eagles have two or three players just like him on their offense. Chicago just isn't playing well right now and I don't think they can keep up with Philly.

Texans over Titans — Tennessee has done a good job limiting Vince Young's responsibility and relying on stud Chris Johnson, but I still think Houston has the better team and I like them to win Monday night.

Chris J. Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University. He operates his own Miami Dolphins web site, The Miami Dolphins Spotlight , and can be followed on Twitter here .

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