Bleacher Report - Atlanta Braves

Are the Atlanta Braves Taking a Chance on Tim Hudson?

Jason Lempert — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:51:48 -0500

If pitching wins championships, then the Atlanta Braves are making all the efforts to win in the next three seasons.

The team re-signed right-hander Tim Hudson to three-year contract, worth $28 million. The agreement also includes a club option for 2013, worth $9 million.

But was this signing a risk worth taking for the Bravos?

Hudson will be turning 35 in July and has already started to show signs of slowing down over the last couple of seasons. Since coming to Atlanta in 2005, his numbers across the board have been in a steady decline. Last season, he made a total of seven starts due to surgery to repair a torn labrum in his throwing elbow, which he discovered shortly after the All-Star break in 2008.

The Braves did hold a $12 million option on the righty and one could argue that they should have exercised that option, given Hudson a year to prove he is healthy and righted the ship,then sign him to an extension.

And, it's not like the team has a shortage of starting pitching. Javier Vazquez, the subject of many trade rumors, won 15 games for the Braves last season. Derek Lowe was signed to a 3-year deal before the '09 season. Youngsters Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson showed they belong in a Major League rotation.

And while Kenshin Kawakami wasn't great by any means, they probably could have gotten away with either offering Hudson a shorter term contract, or going after a cheaper option.

But instead, GM Frank Wren and the Braves are taking a shot on the veteran righty proving his health and turning things around in 2010. Will this move help send the Braves to the World Series, or to the NL East cellar? How much improved is Hudson's shoulder? Can he return to his Oakland Athletic form? These are the questions the Braves brass are being overly optimistic about, in this writer's opinion.

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Top Five "Brave" Surprises Of 2009

Brett Kettyle — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:55:14 -0500

The 2009 season is in the books, and it was one of, if not the, most frustrating seasons I can remember for the Braves.

To look back at the year that was, I will make lists of five, covering everything from disappointments to off-season moves I would like to see made.

The 2009 season fell short of my (and many other Braves fans) expectations, so to start off this season review I give you my Top Five Brave Surprises of 2009.

5. Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Peter Moylan, and Eric O’Flaherty

What is the surprise here you ask? It looks like I basically just listed our top options for the last three innings of a game.

That’s exactly what I did, and the surprise is that these four were basically the only four options Bobby Cox used in the late innings of close games.

All four pitchers were in the top 10 in the majors in appearances. Moylan led the team with 87, followed by Gonzalez (80), O’Flaherty (78), and Soriano (77). I don’t know if that has ever happened before in Major League history.

All four pitched extremely well, O’Flaherty had the highest ERA in the group at 3.04, but there were times when the innings seemed to catch up with them.

With the starting pitching overhaul that the Braves received in the offseason, it was definitely surprising to see our top four relievers used as often as they were.

4. Martin Prado

I know that Prado entered the season with a .307 batting in 329 career at bats. Prado also spent six seasons in the minors, during which he hit an even .300.

But to me, Prado was a surprise in 2009, because I certainly had my doubts as to whether or not he could perform as an everyday second baseman.

After Kelly Johnson struggled, Prado got his chance as the full-time second baseman and posted a .307/11/49 line in 450 at bats.

While Prado will never give you a ton of power or speed, he was a great hitter in the No. 2 spot, and I think he will be the starting second baseman for the next couple years, at least.

3. Tommy Hanson

I know, there was a ton of hype surrounding Hanson coming into the season, but for a rookie to post the numbers that he did, I consider it a surprise.

The most hyped pitching prospect at the beginning of the year was David Price, and he posted respectable rookie numbers (10-7, 4.42 ERA).

Tommy Hanson wasn’t just respectable, he was amazing (and in my opinion, deserved the rookie of the year award over J.A. Happ and Chris Coghlan).

The numbers on the surface were great for any pitcher (11-4, 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), but his peripherals show that Tommy Hanson was one of the best pitchers in the majors in 2009.

Hanson’s K/9 ratio was 8.2 and his K/BB ratio was 2.5. All around, Hanson was dominant in 2009, and no matter how much hype there is, is surprising for a rookie.

2. Adam LaRoche

I have always been a fan of Adam LaRoche. His stance at the plate looks so relaxed, and I love his swing.

While I was disappointed when he was traded, I knew the Braves got good players in return, and quickly forgot about him when Mark Teixeira was in Atlanta.

However, as the Casey Kotchman days dragged on, I longed for the days of LaRoche, but I didn’t ever thing that Braves GM Frank Wren was thinking the same thing.

Due to LaRoche’s knack for performing in the second half, I expected a strong showing when he returned to Atlanta, but I didn’t see his .325/12/40 line in just 212 at bats coming.

LaRoche will be an interesting name on the free agent market this year, but in 2009 he surprised Atlanta not only with his play, but also by being brought back to the Braves.

1. Javier Vazquez

I had a good feeling about Vazquez before the season as seen in this article.

He was coming to the NL, coming to a pitcher’s park, and coming to work with a great manager.

Plus, Javier Vazquez had to put it together, he had always had the stuff and the great peripheral numbers, but never lived up to the expectations placed upon him.

Going into the year, I figured Vazquez would be better than in 2008. I didn’t think he would post numbers that gave him some Cy Young consideration despite sub-par run support.

Vazquez posted a 2.87 ERA and a 15-10 record, and also posted insane K/9 and K/BB ratios (9.8 and 5.41, respectively).

Now seen as major trade bait, Vazquez was the biggest surprise to me in the 2009 season, and that is despite the relatively high expectations I had placed on him in spring training.

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Assembling the Atlanta Braves' 2010 Roster

Cameron Britt — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 19:02:00 -0500

For those of you who follow me, you know that I've been taking a close look at the Braves' offseason options over the past few weeks.

I made one swooping prediction/suggestion about a month ago.

And looking back now...I hate it.

And in another month, I'll hate this one.

But it's all in good fun.

So, let's recap what I've done (remember, I'm playing GM) thus far.

I'll highlight, in italics , the money associated with each move.

Players Acquired

Jorge Cantu (3.5 MM ), Juan Rivera (3.25 MM ), Jason Bulger (~400K ), Brian Sanches (~400K ).

Players Departing

Kris Medlen, Cody Johnson, Brandon Hicks, Randall Delgado, James Parr, a MiLB pitcher of the Marlins choice (combined for a total MLB impact of ~400K ), Kenshin Kawakami (the Braves would be eating part of his salary, so about $4 MM departing), Adam LaRoche ($7 MM )

That's a difference of -3.85 for the MLB payroll.

That's what I've done so far, now, let's talk about what'll be happening elsewhere on the Braves' roster.

Keep in mind now: the Braves had a payroll of about $96.7 MM in '09, and a significant rise shouldn't be expected.

Let's start out with the arbitration-eligible players (these are what I would do).

Matt Diaz

This one's really a no-brainer. Matt Diaz was a major part of the Braves' second-half run in '09 and has always been a more-than-serviceable fourth outfielder. Even with Jason Heyward at or near Major-League readiness, Matt Diaz will be an important piece to the Braves' puzzle. Coming off of a .313 year in which he slugged 13 homers and stole 12 bags, I expect a rise in his $1.2 MM salary...I'm thinking $2.5 MM for '10 (a rise of $1.3 MM ).

Kelly Johnson

This decision is a little tougher. Kelly Johnson plays hard...but plays so inconsistently that he makes you want to puke. That trait cost him his job to Martin Prado and does not bode well for a role as a bench player. I think he'll be non-tendered (he's not a Type-A or -B, so there's not point in risking him taking the offer) and his $2.8 MM salary will be off the books.

Boone Logan

With Eric O'Flaherty stepping up and having an outstanding campaign in '09, Logan was a forgotten man. His 5.19 ERA may look scary, but he was more than passable as a straight-up LOOGY (with a .231 average against him from lefties). In most situations, I'd let a guy like Boone walk, but he's only 25 and has a good (not great) left-handed arm. He only made the league minimum (~400K) this past season, and with only 20 games to go on, I don't see how he could get much of a raise (in other words, no noticeable difference , just a guy who could make an impact in '10)

Ryan Church

Ryan Church played well after coming over from the Mets. But, injuries got him at the end of the year, and his numbers (.270-ish with single-digit homers) and defense are easily replaceable (Jordan Schafer, anyone?). He and his $2.8 MM salary should be hitting the road.

Peter Moylan

Do I really need to explain this one? He'll be back. His '09 salary was the league minimum, and I expect no less than $2 MM coming his way in 2010 ($1.6 MM increase).

Rafael Soriano

Despite his performance in '09 (which was very good), I think Soriano will be too hot of a commodity on the free agent market for the Braves to retain (as in they'll try to sign him but someone else will outbid them--100+ Ks in ~75 innings is going to be in high demand). I think the Braves offer him a small increase over his $6.5 MM from '09, he'll reject it, and the Braves will get two draft picks when some one signs him.

Mike Gonzalez

Like his late-inning partner in crime above him, Mike Gonzalez was very good for the Braves in the '09 campaign. He made $3.4 MM for his services and will likely stick his foot in the free agency waters. I can see the Braves offering him about $5MM before he rejects and heads towards FA.

However, I would be willing to enter a mini-bidding war with other teams and use the team's potential to leverage him into a two-year, $6.8 MM per contract ($3.4 MM increase). Oh, and I would hope he accepts the offer of $5 MM to stay, I'm just saying I would be willing to go to $6.8 MM on the open market (and we'll use that to tally the dollars).

All of these moves means a net of: -$5.6 MM (and a pair of draft picks if Soriano does indeed depart)

Oh, and lest we forget Garret Anderson's $2.5 MM salary coming off books along with Greg Norton's 800K.

That's a total of $11.95 MM to work with on the open market (arbitration changes and trade additions included).

Not too bad.

Now, in my world as GM, this is what we're looking at for the start of the '09 campaign (a + indicates replacing a hole left by a departing player, a ++ means a $400 K salary for a departing player player's replacement, ? means "could be exchanged for another ?"):

C Brian McCann
1B Jorge Cantu +
2B Martin Prado
3B Chipper Jones
SS Yunel Escobar
LF Juan Rivera +
CF Nate McLouth
RF Matt Diaz

INF Omar Infante
OF Jordan Schafer ++
OF Jason Heyward? ++
PH Brooks Conrad ++

Rotation
1 Tim Hudson
2 Javier Vazquez
3 Jair Jurrjens
4 Tommy Hanson
5 Derek Lowe

Bullpen
LRP Todd Redmond (exiting Medlen was the same)
RHP Jason Bulger
RHP Brian Sanches
LHP Eric O'Flaherty
LOOGY Boone Logan?
RHSU Peter Moylan
LHSU Mike Gonzalez
CL _____________

We've already established that Soriano will command quite a bit (my guess will be $10 MM-which some team will undoubtedly offer him).

And the only viable option on the market is Jose Valverde (who will also cost a lot).

This one has me truly stumped.

Would you push harder to keep Soriano, or go hard after Valverde (or someone else).

You've seen the money the Braves have under my scenario, tell me what you think.

(Based on the results of this open-ended question, I will assemble my 2010 Atlanta Braves on a pretty little slide show—I really don't know what I should do)

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