Bleacher Report - Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays Can Contend in 2010: Part I—Offense Has Power Potential

John McKibbin — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:00:03 -0500

If you're thinking, sure, the Toronto Blue Jays “can” contend in 2010, but they likely won't, well, you're probably right. The odds are much greater that the team finishes 2010 in last place than second place and in the playoffs.

Good management in any business or sports organization dictates that personnel are slotted in where they have the best chance to succeed.

At the same time, the Peter Principle—as individuals are promoted or given more responsibility within an organization, each will eventually reach a level of incompetence—applies equally to sport as it does to business.

Keeping this dynamic in mind, the Blue Jays' front office people have reached a sticky crossroads. They have to consider both the short-term and long-term repercussions of decisions they must make prior to the onset of the 2010 season.

The main issue is what to do about Harry Leroy “Doc” Halladay.

So much conjecture has already been written about this subject that I won't dwell on it. There is no point flailing a dead horse. But without Doc and Shaun Marcum—combined with even a modicum of improvement in Baltimore's pitching—Toronto could easily end up in last place in the AL East.

The smart move would seem to be trading Halladay now, when his value is highest. However, there are a number of financial factors involved with this deal that many fans may not have considered.

For instance, trading Halladay now would give the perception of giving up on the 2010 season before it ever gets underway. Fans could stay away in record numbers if the Jays get off to a bad start. Over time this could lead to a Pittsburgh scenario. Worse yet, Canada could eventually lose its only Major League Baseball team.

Still, if all the players play up to “form” (last year's numbers loosely combined with those of the previous three years) and the team remains free of serious injury, they have a chance to win 95 games.

Key second-year players like Travis Snider, Ricky Romero, Marc Rzepczynski, and Brett Cecil have yet to establish form at the major league level. The assumption is that each of them will show at least a modest improvement over his 2009 rookie performance.

Commonly advanced theories about how to make the Blue Jays a contender run the gamut from adding a big bat like Jason Bay to the middle of the order, to trading Halladay for two top young pitchers and another bat, or goosing up the salary budget to $120 million. None of these eventualities are likely to happen.

To have any chance at all of remaining in contention in the AL East, the Jays have to keep Halladay and Rod Barajas, but can let Marco Scutaro and John McDonald walk.

Strangely enough, the Jays can contend in 2010 without adding 10 cents to last season's payroll.

The departure of Alex Rios and Scott Rolen frees up about $20 million, which is more than enough to pay for: (a) their replacements, Edwin Encarnacion and Snider; (b) the salary increases in multi-year contracts; (c) keeping Barajas (four for two); (d) giving appropriate increases to the arbitration-eligible players; and (e) getting a reasonably effective free agent closer ($5-7 million).

The biggest “IF” for the upcoming season is the performance of Shaun Marcum. Marcum's won-lost record in 50 starts over 2007-08 was 20-11 with an ERA in the mid threes.

If he can return to form with 15-plus wins the Jays may contend. If he can't, and he has fewer than five wins in 2010, the team doesn't have much of a chance.

The next biggest question mark is the production of three Latino players—Encarnacion, Randy Ruiz, and Jose Bautista—who may all be on the verge of a breakout year. This belief is based on their performance last season, especially during the last five or six weeks.

Following is the proposed batting order for the upcoming season. Based on form, and my direct pipeline to a couple of minor baseball gods, each player's 2010 basic production—batting average, HR, and RBI—is included. Numbers are based on 150-plus games played and 600 AB.

Numbers for platoon players include the other half of the platoon. For example, the Lyle Overbay/Kevin Millar 1B platoon in 2009 had 23 HR, 93 RBI, and a .251 average in 674 AB. Decent numbers. Who said “Overpay?” C'mon, fess up now.

CF: Vernon Wells .275/15/75

2B: Jose Bautista .260/20/75

LF: Adam Lind .310/28/100

SS: Aaron Hill .280/30/100

RF: Travis Snider .265/25/85

3B: Edwin Encarnacion .260/27/80

1B: Lyle Overbay .275/22/90

DH: Randy Ruiz .260/25/75

C: Rod Barajas .230/20/75

Notice the preponderance of home runs. Although the Jays generally have ranked 10th to 12th in home runs in the AL for the last five or six years, the team ranked fourth in 2009. The Blue Jays could easily end up second this year just behind the Yankees.

The power hitting isn't by any means a perfect substitute for the team's inability to hit with runners in scoring position, but it will go a long way toward allaying that shortcoming.

Here are some thoughts on the proposed batting order.

Vernon Wells: Leadoff

Jays fans are stuck with Wells, whether they like it or not. But how to maximize his value, especially in light of his wrist injury and recent operation? He will be able to hit, but it may be a full year before his power stroke returns to what it was a few years ago.

Wells is the club's best base stealer. To reach more often, Wells will have to concentrate on taking outer-half pitches to right field. The additional focus should improve his walk/strikeout ratio, too.

Wells is mature beyond his years, a gifted athlete, very intelligent, and a good team man. It shouldn't surprise anybody if Wells, as a leadoff hitter, raises his on-base percentage from .311 last year to the .360 range and scores over 100 runs in 2010.

Jose Bautista: No. 2 Slot

Bautista finally got to start just about every day last September. He responded by tearing the cover off the ball with 10 HR for the month. At 29, he is in his prime.

He does a lot of little things well, like laying down a bunt, hitting behind the runner, and stealing a base when it's really vital to do so. With 600 AB last year, he would have had exactly 100 walks. His OBP was .349, and he should improve on that playing every day.

Bautista has played over 300 games at third base. Although he has just started a handful at second base, he has yet to make an error. Teamed with Aaron Hill, Bautista could give the Jays one of the very best offensive middle infields in baseball.

Adam Lind: No. 3 Slot

Lind is the team's most consistent hitter. Batting him anywhere other than third would be just plain wrong. It only took Cito Gaston 50 to 60 games to figure that out last year. Apparently, Gaston's main concern was not shaking Alex Rios' confidence.

Aaron Hill: Cleanup

Although Hill doesn't have the stature of a typical cleanup hitter, he certainly has the instincts. In 2010, he will be most valuable to the team returning to the shortstop position and batting cleanup. Hill likes a challenge, so he should do more than all right at both.

Travis Snider: No. 5 Slot

One of these times, Snider is going to have a breakout year. It could be next season. He has more raw power than any Jays hitter since Carlos Delgado.

Edwin Encarnacion: No. 6 Slot

Encarnacion had an injury-plagued year in 2009. Despite that, his 13 HR and 39 RBI in 293 AB extend out to 27 HR and 80 RBI over a full season.

Encarnacion is a young player (a year younger than Hill) just entering his prime. His recent wrist surgery isn't the type that should adversely affect his power numbers in 2010. He could have a huge season. One of J.P. Ricciardi's best trades.

Lyle Overbay: No. 7 Slot

In 2010, Overbay could have his best season as a Jay, because he's entering the last year of his contract. If he continues to have trouble with left-handed pitching, he will probably be platooned with rookie power hitter Brian Dopirak. The numbers these two put up should be more than adequate for the No. 7 hole.

Randy Ruiz: No. 8 Slot

Ruiz could become a major favorite with Blue Jays fans—a great, big bear of a man with a massive uppercut swing who hustles flat-out around the bases.

He had a .313 batting average and hit 10 home runs in 115 AB after his call-up last season. If he can hit his weight (250 lbs.) and pound out 20 to 25 HR, the bottom of the Blue Jays' batting order could outproduce any other team's.

Although Ruiz is a 32-year-old “rookie,” he appears to be a late bloomer who could give the Jays another big bat at an economy price for the next three or four years.

Rod Barajas: No. 9 Slot

Last season, Jays catchers hit 22 home runs and batted in 90. Barajas was responsible for 80 percent of that output. No other team's No. 9 hole can match those numbers.

Next time: Commentary on the Jays' pitching potential in 2010.

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Toronto Blue Jays: The Ticket Increase Fiasco

Ian Hunter — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:06:00 -0500

Image courtesy of Flickr user JeremyCai

It appears as though the Blue Jays aren’t winning over very many fans these days.

After the infamous Boston Red Sox ticket stunt, Jerseygate , and other numerous public relations blunders, the most recent development seems to have irked quite a few fans of both the faithful and fairweather kind.

Unearthed by Drunk Jays Fans earlier today , the latest debacle surrounds the purposed ticket increases for certain season ticket holders and possible single game tickets as well. Initial knee-jerk reactions have been pretty harsh, so before we get our panties in a knot, let’s stop and consider the following:

99.2 percent of season ticket prices will remain the same in 2010. That’s less than one percent of ticket holders that are affected by this increase, about 24 people in total. Frankly, if more fans aren’t coming out to the ballpark (as all numbers indicated in 2009) then you have to charge more for tickets if you want to make more money.

It hasn’t been confirmed yet, but single-game-ticket prices are almost certainly going to go up in price. If you take a look at the 2010 Rogers Centre seating map , they have done away with the separate pricing for the field level sections in 113 and 130, and they are now all one price.

The Toronto Star featured an article on how one fan in particular will see a 56 percent increase in the price of his season tickets. I’m not really feeling that empathetic in this situation because if you’re willing to pay over $3000 to see your favourite team, then you should be willing to pay $6000.

And if not, then just downgrade your tickets to a different section. Not to mention that this guy is a lawyer—come on, he can obviously afford the increase.

After this past year’s lackluster season, I would love to see the Toronto Blue Jays lower their ticket prices. Unfortunately, sports business doesn't work that way—ticket prices are not reflective on the team's performance. Lowering or freezing ticket prices benefits fans in the long term, however bumping up prices increases the revenue which hopefully leads to more team payroll and eventually a winning team.

A couple bucks more at the ticket booth might seem like a lot, but if it’s for the greater good of this team and the future of the franchise, frankly...I’ll give a toonie now if it will bring a playoff run later.

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What is Roy Halladay's Trade Market?

Adam Bernacchio — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 13:15:14 -0500

I apologize for the late post today, but it was a long, long, long night last night for The Ghost of Moonlight Graham. Beer and late-night eating don’t mix to well anymore after the age of 30.

That being said, I thought I would take it easy on myself today. Today, I am going to take a look at the most coveted player on the trade market this winter—Toronto Blue Jays’ Roy Halladay.

With Halladay a free agent after the 2010 season, the Toronto ace was the hottest name on the trade market during the days leading up to last year’s July 31 trading deadline.

Former Blue Jays’ GM JP Ricciardi could have traded Halladay at last year’s deadline and have gotten maximum value for him. But he didn’t and that’s one of the many reasons he is no longer the Blue Jays’ GM.

This winter will be the last time the Blue Jays will have the opportunity to trade Halladay and receive top value back. If they wait until the 2010 trading deadline, then teams won’t have to give up the farm because they know the Jays will be forced to trade Halladay.

Now let’s take a look at the pros and the cons of Halladay and what teams would be interested in trading for the native of Denver, CO.

Pros

Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. Period. End of sentence.

Any team he gets traded to, he becomes that team’s ace. And that’s ANY team including the New York Mets, who have Johan Santana.

Not only will you get an ace, but you are also going to get a guy who is going to save your bullpen. Halladay has led the American League in complete games five out of the last seven years.

As a matter of fact, Halladay’s nine complete games in 2009 were more than 27 teams in baseball. That’s probably the greatest feat in baseball that nobody ever talks about.

Cons

There are only two cons for acquiring Halladay.

First, you are going to have to give up some top prospects to get him. In terms of prospects, Halladay is not going to come cheap.

Second, you might only have him for one year. Like I said, Halladay is a free agent after the 2010 season and at 32 years old, he will be looking for one last payday.

Now that we looked at the pros and cons of Halladay, let’s look at the teams who have the resources to acquire Halladay.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies were in on Halladay last year, but they acquired Cliff Lee instead. The Phillies are a win now team and acquiring Halladay would give the Phillies the best one-two punch in the National League.

The Phillies still have the top prospects to pull off a deal for Halladay.

New York Mets: After a disastrous 2009 season, the Mets are desperate to make a splash this offseason. Halladay would not only be a splash, but he would be a Ron Burgandy cannonball.

The Mets are hoping the same scenario plays out with the Blue Jays that helped them land Santana from the Minnesota Twins. The Twins didn’t want to trade Santana to an American League team and they accepted a penny on the dollar for Santana.

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have a new owner who wants to win. I think the Cubs have finally realized Carlos Zambrano is not an ace and Halladay would give the Cubs the ace that Kerry Wood and Mark Prior were supposed to be.

Remember, they were hot on Jake Peavy last year, so they know they need a number one. They are my sleeper to land Halladay.

Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are an interesting team because they clearly have the need for an ace. Clayton Kershaw clearly isn’t there yet and I have no idea what happened to Chad Billingsley in the second half.

Halladay would thrive in Dodger Stadium. Of course, the big question will be whether or not the Dodgers can add payroll in 2010.

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox were all over Halladay at last year’s trading deadline. The Red Sox realize that offense might be a problem going forward, so they might try to win with pitching.

The Red Sox have the prospects and the money to get a deal done. Halladay, Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester would give the Red Sox a formidable three-headed monster.

Yesterday, the Blue Jays made it even more appealing for teams to trade for Halladay by saying they would allow another team a window to negotiate a contract extension with Halladay and his agent.

All signs are pointing towards the Blue Jays trading Halladay this winter. I am going to say there is a 85 percent chance Halladay gets traded this winter.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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Another Roy Halladay Cy Young Calibre Season

Ian Hunter — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 23:12:00 -0500

I hate to say it...but for the fourth year in a row, Roy Halladay crafted another Cy Young calibre season and had nothing to show for it.

The Baseball Writers Association of America did the right thing by giving the Cy Young to Zack Greinke. Though not your typical runaway candidate, Greinke did everything right on a team that played so horribly wrong throughout the season. Greinke didn't have an impressive win/loss record, however he certainly made up for it all other categories.

The voting went down pretty much as expected, but I would have liked to see Doc finish a little higher than fifth place. Ultimately, I guess it doesn't really matter because you either win the Cy Young award or you don't—there isn't any purple fifth-place-finish ribbon like there was at the track & field meet in public school.

Out of all the votes, the one that stands out like a sore thumb was the ballot which included Justin Verlander as a first place vote. This is just another example of a voter not digging deeper into the statistics and only scratching the surface and looking and win/loss and strikeouts. For shame!

Even though the Roy Halladay trophy case won't have any new additions this year, I commend him on another fantastic season and in my heart he will always be a Cy Young award winner.

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Time for Roy Halladay Suitors To Line Up

Ian Hunter — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:44:00 -0500

It's a bitter pill to swallow, but I'm come to grips with the fact that Roy Halladay is likely not going to be a Blue Jay for much longer. The poor guy was dangled like chum in front of hungry sharks at the trade deadline, and now Alex Anthopoulous has the daunting task of trading away the franchise's best player.

By this point, I'm sure Alex Anthopoulos and Paul Beeston have narrowed down the candidates to which they are willing to trade Roy Halladay to. Ultimately, Doc has the final the say the matter so that means any potential suitors must be contendors and give him a chance at winning.

Below is what I believe to be the short list of candidates for Roy Halladay:

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels seem to be the front-runners on the short-list to land Halladay in a trade. They have handily won the AL West the past five out of six years and would give Doc arguably the best chance to pitch in the playoffs.

Whether or not John Lackey walks away from the Angels, they could definitely benefit from having Halladay in their rotation (then again, who wouldn’t?) Plus, Mike Scioscia knows that if he has to yank Roy Halladay from a game, that he won’t give him lip like Lackey did.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are no longer high on Chad Billingsley, and Los Angeles needs a bona fide ace to anchor their starting rotation. A deal swapping Halladay for Billingsley makes perfect sense...not to mention, Halladay would rack up the wins facing teams in the NL Central. No more of this playing second fiddle in the Cy Young voting.

Philadelphia Phillies

At the trade deadline, the Phillies went home with the second-best looking gal at the prom (Cliff Lee) but now they have an opportunity to bring in the valedictorian of the pitching class in the majors.

Luckily for the Blue Jays, the Phillies still have many of the players they were hoping for initially at the trade deadline. If the Phils would part with J.A. Happ and Kyle Draebeck, this deal could happen and would immediately give the Phillies the best starting rotation in baseball.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox probably have the deepest farm system and young major league talent to offer up to the Blue Jays to get Halladay. Whether they would be willing to part with Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, or others remains to be seen.

New York Yankees

Out of all the places that Roy Halladay could be traded to, this would be my biggest nightmare. If traded to New York, not only does Alex Anthopoulos give the Yankees an even better chance at repeating as world champions, it also means the Blue Jays would have to face Doc at least three or four times in divisional match ups. Great for television ratings, but bad for our souls.

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Toronto Blue Jays' Vernon Wells Undergoes Wrist Surgery

Adam Bernacchio — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 11:23:51 -0500

According to the Toronto Star , Toronto Blue Jays OF Vernon Wells had surgery on Thursday to repair cartilage damage in his left wrist.

The surgery was a success and Wells is expected to be ready by spring training.

Wells, who played with pain in his wrist all season hit a disappointing .250 with 15 home runs with a .711 OPS. Really not what the Blue Jays were hoping for when they signed him to that enormous contract.

That’s the type of contract that will get a GM fired–oh wait, it did.

Ever since Wells signed his seven-year, $126 million contract after the 2006 season, he has had nothing but bad luck.

In 2007, Wells hurt his shoulder and broke his wrist

In 2008, Wells had a groin injury

In 2009, Wells was playing with a left wrist injury.

If I was a GM who was interesting and could afford Roy Halladay–which eliminates two-thirds of teams in baseball–here is what I would do.

I would call up the Blue Jays and say I want to trade for Halladay and I will also take half of Wells’ contract off your hands. That would be the easiest way to acquire Halladay without giving away your farm system.

The Blue Jays would jump at the opportunity to get rid of at least half of Wells’ contract.

If you are Omar Minaya of the New York Mets or Theo Epstein of the Boston Red Sox, why wouldn’t you propose something like this? Both teams have an opening in left, where Wells could move to and both GM’s have the finances to pull something like this off.

$10 million for Wells doesn’t look as bad as the $23 million the Blue Jays would be paying Wells by themselves. And we all know that as soon as Wells leaves Toronto, he probably is going to have a great year.

That’s just the way sports work. A guy gets a change of scenery and becomes rejuvenated. We have seen it time and time again.

And I wouldn’t worry about Wells’ no-trade clause.

My guess is that Wells would waive his no-trade clause just to get out of Toronto. The Blue Jays are clearly rebuilding and I am sure Wells wants a change of scenery at this point.

That would by way to get Halladay. Take Wells, you get Halladay, and then you do a whole lot of praying that Wells remembers how to hit.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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