Bleacher Report - Stats

Bert Blyleven Makes Another Pitch at Cooperstown

Jeremiah Graves — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 18:54:26 -0500

Bert Blyleven belongs in the Hall of Fame.

In fact, he’s belonged in the Hall of Fame for 12 years.

Yet, for 12 years in a row, the Baseball Writers Association of American has erred by leaving him out in the cold when the voting results are announced.

Now in his 13th year of eligibility, Blyleven is down to his final three strikes.

Blyleven’s inability to get inducted has never been a case of talent.

For Bert Blyleven, the numbers have always been there, however, the votes have not.

In a 22-year career that spanned five teams and both leagues, “The Flying Dutchman” put up some very impressive numbers.

Those impressive numbers include 287 career wins, which is good enough for 27th on the all-time list. Almost every eligible player ahead of Blyleven on the wins list is enshrined in Cooperstown.

In fact, plenty of pitchers with less wins that Blyleven have be inducted. Some notable examples include: Jim Palmer, Juan Marichal, Whitey Ford, Don Drysdale, and Catfish Hunter, among others.

Wins aren’t the only statistic where Blyleven’s numbers are Hall-worthy.

Blyleven’s 3,701 career strikeouts rank him fifth all-time, he’s 11th in games started with 685, he’s ninth all-time with 60 shutouts, and he’s 13th on the all-time innings pitched list with 4,970.

Blyleven’s career 3.31 earned run average tops current Hall of Famers Phil Niekro, Fergie Jenkins, Robin Roberts, and Dennis Eckersley.

Clearly the numbers are there, so what’s the issue?

It seems that voters haven’t yet made a big push to get Blyleven in because of his lack of the so-called “benchmarks” for entry into the Hall of Fame.

Blyleven never won a Cy Young Award, he didn’t reach the 300-win plateau, he was only an All-Star twice in 22 years, he won 20 games in a season just once, and he only led the league in one of the key pitching categories once, in 1985 when he paced the American League with 206 strikeouts.

Despite his lack of a standout season or any of the archaic benchmarks, one needs only look so far as his overall body of work in comparison to his modern-day counterparts to see that he belongs.

How many starters will ever reach 287 career wins?

How many starters will ever strike out more than 3,000 batters again, let alone reach his lofty mark?

How many starters—in the age of pitch counts, specialty relievers, and the six-inning quality start—will ever come close to pitching 242 complete games or 60 shutouts?

Blyleven’s already rock-solid numbers, although unchanged since he retired following the 1992 season, figure to grow more impressive as the era of the workhorse pitcher fades farther into the past.

Blyleven was a pitcher cut from a different cloth.

He wanted to start and finish a game on the mound with the ball in his hand. Too many pitchers now are content to earn the quality start and hit the showers.

Take for instance Blyleven’s 242 complete games and 60 shutouts.

Randy Johnson is the active leader in complete games pitched with 100. The modern-era workhorse, Roy Halladay has just 49.

Johnson is also the active leader in shutouts with 37, followed by Tom Glavine with 25.

No one is going to catch Blyleven any time soon, meaning that his lofty, Hall of Fame-worthy rankings will remain intact long passed the end of his 15th year of eligibility.

Arguments can be made that Blyleven’s numbers are a product of his lengthy career, that he lost too many games, or that he never had one standout season to hang his hat on.

All of those arguments could be valid, but all are easily disputed by simple facts.

Blyleven’s career spanned just as many years as Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, and Roger Clemens. All of whom are considered to be first-ballot Hall of Famers.

No one would ever claim that their successes were a result of pitching for two decades, as opposed to raw talent.

All four of the aforementioned pitchers also had the good fortune to pitch for winning, playoff-caliber teams for most of their careers.

Blyleven pitched in two World Series, in 1979 with Pittsburgh and in 1987 with Minnesota. He only played in the postseason one other time, in the 1970 ALCS with the Twins.

Most of his career was spent toiling for mediocre clubs that hovered at or below the .500 mark, no doubt that impacted his won-loss record in a big way.

Finally, the lack of a standout season is a moot point. How many pitchers have won a Cy Young Award or 20 games only to fade into oblivion?

A pitcher’s Hall-worthiness shouldn’t hinge on whether or not he had one stellar year somewhere along a 22-year journey that saw him finish among the game’s elite in numerous categories.

Blyleven didn’t need to win an award or have a standout year to show that he belongs in the Hall of Fame.

The numbers, as they always have been, are there.

Now it’s time for the BBWAA writers to finish what Blyleven, and his infamous curveball, started and vote him into the Hall of Fame.

The voters, despite not yet making the right decision, have been moving in the right direction.

After receiving just 17.5 percent of the vote in 1998, his first year of eligibility, his totals have grown nearly every year.

Last year he finished with 338 total votes for 62.7 percent, still shy of the 75 percent required for induction to the Hall of Fame.

Blyleven’s slow march toward the 70 percent mark is important as well, because every player who has reached 70 percent of the vote has subsequently been elected to the Hall of Fame.

Even more encouraging is that since 1980, only four players have received over 60 percent of the vote and not ended up in Cooperstown.

All signs point toward Blyleven’s eventual induction.

With no sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famers on the ticket this year and a whole slew of holdovers, this could finally be the year that Blyleven gets his due.

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The Pride Of Nebraska: Woodhead's Spot on NFL Roster Unlikely

Scott Hansen — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 18:22:34 -0500

Danny Woodhead of North Platte, Nebraska ran for more yards in a single season than anybody in the history of college football. Anyone. Any division.

Unheralded out of high school in the Cornhusker State after setting numerous prep records, Division I locals such as Nebraska and Colorado made a lukewarm pursuit of this prep phenom from Western Nebraska. Both wanted Woodhead to walk-on to their programs, while Northwestern was rumored to be interest but nothing materialized.

Woodhead shocked Husker Nation by enrolling at Division II Chadron State. Many observers believed Woodhead would want to prove his worth by walking on to Nebraska, but Woodhead called Nebraska’s bluff.

Woodhead’s older brother was a member of the football team at Chadron State, and Woodhead said, “I wanted to go to play for somebody that wanted me.”

Woodhead was too small according to the Big 12 North rivals.

Woodhead stands at just 5-foot-7, and weighs 200 pounds soaking wet. This Woodhead, however, had speed that you couldn’t teach and moves like former college football icon and Heisman Trophy winner Barry Sanders.

From day one in Chadron, it was a man playing amongst boys. Woodhead shattered every record known to mankind at the school, rushing towards an improbable icon status in his native Nebraska.

As a freshman in 2004, Woodhead rushed for 1,840 yards and rushed for 25 touchdowns. In 2005, there was no sophomore slump for Woodhead. Woodhead rumbled for 1,769 yards in 10 games, rushing for 21 touchdowns.

As a junior, Woodhead began his assault on college football record books. Woodhead rushed for eight yards per carry, juking his way to 2,756 rushing yards and 34 touchdowns. Woodhead caught 45 passes for 403 more yards, scoring four receiving touchdowns. His season yardage output of 2,756 is an NCAA single-season record.

Woodhead won the Division II equivalent of the Heisman Trophy, the Harlon Hill Trophy, in 2006.

Despite an injury-riddled senior campaign in 2007, Woodhead won the award again following his 1,597 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns.

Woodhead finished his career by rushing for 7,891 yards and 101 touchdowns, adding eight receiving touchdowns in 44 career games at Chadron State.

Woodhead was not invited to the NFL Draft Combine in Indianapolis, and went undrafted.

He inked a free agent contract with the New York Jets. Rumor had it that the Jets were so impressed with Woodhead there would be a good chance he could make the roster on opening day as a rookie.

Woodhead was injured in the preseason, and missed the entire 2008 season. A year after being injured, Woodhead rejoined the Jets for the 2009 season.

Woodhead was one of the final cuts during preseason for the Jets. He was immediately signed to the Jets practice squad and spent over a month on it.

Woodhead was then signed to the active roster by the Jets in October prior to Week eight.

Listed as a wide receiver, Woodhead rushed for 24 yards on three carries in his first NFL game. In a Week 12 win over Carolina, Woodhead made two receptions for 23 yards in spot duty.

Woodhead is one big play away from becoming an overnight sensation.

Out of relative obscurity, the road to the NFL seemed like a long shot. But now, Woodhead is receiving the ultimate reward and showing everyone what he is made of.

He is the pride of North Platte, Chadron, and all of Nebraska.

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Ron Hornaday: Looking Back at His Amazing Season Statistically

S M Napier — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 01:22:53 -0500

It was a dream season for Kevin Harvick Inc.'s Ron Hornaday, chocked full of series firsts, career achieving milestones, and he's forever sealed his name in NASCAR history.

Really, Hornaday's season started last year after the 2008 Awards Banquet.

You see Horn, his crew chief Rick Ren, team manager and spotter Rick Carelli, co-owner Kevin Harvick and other teammates sat down held a meeting about how they would get on stage for the 2009 Banquet.

They put together a game plan, shared their thoughts on areas they could improve on, be more consistent, what needed to be eliminated and no mistakes.

More importantly through dedication, hard-work and teamwork they could achieve their goal.

Horn started the season by finishing no worse than seventh in the first six races, and even picked up his first win of the season at Charlotte.

In 23 races of 25, he qualified sixth or better, picked up four pole awards and started seven times from the front row.

Even more impressive was 22 of those 23 races he qualified in the top five.

Horn, in a five-race stretch from mid-June at Milwaukee till early August at Nashville, won five consecutive races.

He equaled a mark NASCAR hasn't seen happen in 38 years, putting his name with Richard Petty and Bobby Allison, who did it in 1971.

Picking up his first wins at Kentucky and Nashville, repeating at Memphis and broke in brand-new chassis twice during the streak.

Point wise over that stretch, Horn went from a 27-point deficit to a 216 point advantage and it was just "take care of business" over the remaining races.

Horn also would be named the Third Quarter Driver of the Year, something no one in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series has ever done before.

In the 11 races after his winning streak, Horn didn't win another race, but he did pick up six top fives, eight top-10 finishes, and out-pointed Matt Crafton for the title.

Horn went into Phoenix with a 197 points lead, for the Lucas Oil 150 and just needed to finish ahead of Crafton for the title.

He finished fourth to clinch his fourth title, becoming only the second driver in the history of the Trucks to clinch the driver's title prior to Homestead.

Greg Biffle did it in 2000, also at Phoenix.

In winning his fourth title, not only did he become NASCAR's oldest champion at 51, but he breaks the tie with good friend Jack Sprague for the most title wins in the series.

Horn added his name with two Hall of Famers Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt along with Jeff Gordon becoming the fourth driver to win four titles.

One of my favorite highlights of the season, happened at Phoenix just after Horn clinched the driver's championship.

Believe it was Speed TV's Ray Dunlap asking him how it felt. "It's not over by far," Hornaday said.

Horn was refering that he was still racing hard for the owner's title, to win it for Delana and Kevin and that was the important title.

Of course a ailing Horn battling the flu, took care of business and won the owner's championship for the Harvick's.

He'd compiled over the 25-race season six wins, 15 top fives, 20 top-10 finishes, four poles and led 1,091 laps en route to his fourth title.

In all, 2009 was a amazing season for Horn, but it also was redemption for him being more consistent, and eliminated the mistakes that cost him in 2008.

And being a fan of the wily veteran, it was just awesome to see him put his name with legends not once but three times.

More amazing was he accomplished it, with his boss selling his old trucks as fast, as he built him new ones to race in.

About the only thing left for him in Trucks to do is to become the first to repeat as champion.

FYI, don't count him out, Harvick won twice in Horn's 2010 Chevys in the final two races.

The off-season will be a painfully slow one, as I can't wait to see him defending his title.

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England Rugby – 2009 End of Year Review

James Mortimer — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 00:45:43 -0500

Martin Johnson and his men are having all manner of inquisitions delivered against them. Unfortunately for England, lack of victories is giving their critics endless ammunition, as is the manner of their technique.

Rob Andrew has come out and stated there has been some improvement with England’s performances. On the surface of it, this is true.

The margins of defeat were narrower than they were in 2008, and while some would argue the quality of the opposition may have been stellar, it wasn’t as if it was a first-choice England test XV.

Or was it?

(We will explore that a bit later.)

The initial reaction is that if improvement has been made, then where are the wins, or at least, why hasn’t it been evident in the performances on the park? Early rejoinder from the “passionate” England public is that it is not so much about progress at this stage.

It is more about admitting that everything is not well.

Johnson, the former 2003 World Cup winning captain, has also come out and stated that the backroom team within the England camp are safe.

In essence, this has become the “party line” of the England management camp. Much of the same was said last year. They insist that the performance curve is on the up, and that the implementation and development of the long-term plan is on track.

Perhaps, but if it is about meeting the Key Performance Indicators on the Strategic plan (implemented in September) then the Rugby Football Union has a hell of a lot of work to do.

It states that Johnson and England should be aiming to win at least four of the next eight Six Nations titles, two of them by Grand Slam, as well as achieving a two-from-three success ratio against the Tri Nations teams.

If there is a long-term plan, should not sights be set with more realism?

The above achievement wish list is something that the RFU should have set the day after Martin Johnson hoisted up the William Webb Ellis trophy. But unfortunately for England, that lack of foresight is very much indicative of their sporting approach.

The same ugly picture corresponded with the England cricket team, who were on top of the world after a stunning Ashes victory in 2005.

Amidst the celebrations, there was precious little focus on reviewing how they upset possibly the strongest test cricketing team the world had ever seen.

But when they were thumped 5-0 in Australia and had a poor World Cup, English cricket then commissioned the Schofield report.

Analysing the problems when it all goes to s*** is a pretty good thing, but an even better tactic would be working out why it is all going so well, and trying to maintain the progress.

This is probably the biggest issue for England rugby and for their supporters.

It has gone very well, and only just recently.

England six years ago were the dominant rugby power on the planet. The most incriminating aspect of it all is the fact that the RFU, the players and the overall set up had worked out how to climb up to and remain on the summit.

But since then little maintenance has been performed.

The so called “work in progress” has been in place for years now.

England, the fourth nation to win a World Cup, were the dominant team in world rugby in a glorious three-year period between 2001 and 2003 where they played 37 games for 34 wins (91.9 percent), an age that included four Wallaby scalps, three Springbok wins, and two All Black victories.

In the five years since then, England has lost 38 matches in 68 games.

So is there really any real progress?

Much of the ire directed towards England is because of the manner they have performed on the field.

When Johnson first took charge, there was the false dawn of a strong win over the Pacific Islanders, before crashing to three consecutive defeats to the Tri Nations powers.

They were not “die fighting” losses, but rather ill-disciplined affairs in which England were their own worst enemy.

This trend continued in the Six Nations early, when against Ireland at Croke Park, the sending off of Danny Care saw England awarded their 10th yellow card in four matches.

This world record run saw quite possibly the ugliest hybrid of a rugby team one could bear to see.

England was developing into a damage controlling spoiling machine, who would often try anything just to keep the opposition away from their try line via a panicky kicking game.

It was a shame, because this hid the fact that they were competitive in stages against Wales (the reigning champions) and came close to beating Ireland (the champions-elect).

Against France, a marvellous transformation occurred, and England played probably their best game of rugby in years, smashing France 34-10 before comfortably accounting for Scotland to atone for their embarrassing 15-9 loss at Murrayfield in 2008.

They finished the Six Nations as (yellow cards and penalties notwithstanding) the most impressive team statistically in the championship. The most tries, the best attack and the strongest defence.

Again, the expectation was set, and has crashed down amidst a poor autumn international series.

But despite the spectre of injuries, England still was able to field competitive teams throughout the win against Argentina and the losses to Australia and New Zealand.

It is evident when viewing three different starting line ups (last matches of 2008 and this year’s autumn internationals and the second to last game in the 2009 Six Nations), that England still had many front line troops available.

Against New Zealand – Lost 6-19

England: Cueto, Banahan, Hipkiss, Erinle, Monye, Wilkinson, Hodgson, Payne, Hartley, Bell, Shaw, Borthwick, Worsley, Moody, Haskell. Replacements: Tait, Geraghty, Care, Thompson, Wilson, Deacon, Croft

Against France – Won 34-10

England: Armitage, Cueto, Tindall, Flutey, Monye, Flood, Ellis, Sheridan, Mears, Vickery, Borthwick, Shaw, Croft, Worsley, Easter. Replacements: Tait, Goode, Care, White, Hartley, Haskell, Kennedy

Against New Zealand – Lost 6-32

England: Armitage; Sackey, Noon, Flutey, Monye; Flood, Care; Payne, Mears, Vickery, Borthwick, Kennedy, Haskell, Lipman, Easter. Replacements: Hipkiss, Cipriani, Ellis, Hartley, Stevens, Rees, Croft

But in viewing these sides, it is clear where England has missed players of note. And in this we see the root of many of their recent issues.

There were no grizzled front rowers, no men to not only buttress the set piece, but to add co-ordinated power to the England rucks.

Most of the play on the deck has been either negative or without the real intention to do what a winning team tries to do in contact, either recycle the ball quickly or disrupt the opposition...without getting penalised!

There was also lack of balance in the loose forwards. England’s big problem is that more often than not of late, their pack operated as a group of individuals, and not as a roving unit. As it has been in other positions, lack of specialist operators in the back row hurt.

As exceptional as Lewis Moody was in recent tests, his herculean efforts ironically showed England’s lack of “togetherness” at the ruck, as the Leicester flanker was trying to make up for the lack of work by the forwards as a cluster.

There have also been no real thinkers or authority in the backline. Jonny Wilkinson is an outstanding player, but men around him were not offering the support, so the Toulon playmaker clearly felt he had to overplay his hand.

Wilkinson has always been a talent, but one cannot forget that when he ruled the rugby world, he did so behind a brilliant forward pack, and had an influential and powerful midfield outside of him.

Lack of players such as Riki Flutey, or a genuine No. 12 who can take pressure off his stand off and make tactical decisions, are severely hurting England.

This shows their missing je ne sais quoi , that team cohesion and a reliance that all the players emblazoned in white will do the job.

While the win ledger and trophy cabinet is still empty, there are some positives. England showed against the All Blacks (while some might argue they were poor, it was still a talent-laden New Zealand side) that they can compete, and can front up to a class opponent.

But just fronting up does not guarantee success; it is consistency and the ability to perform facets of the game more efficiently, at whatever cost. This was the England of merely six years ago: dedicated, precise and cold, an unyielding rugby goliath that would not be stopped by any team.

Johnson led those men, but whether or not he can teach a new generation and mould them of his own image, is the real challenge for England now.

Or perhaps the challenge is simply admitting that all is not well, and learning from the problems before moving forward.

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All-Time Carolina Hurricanes Roster: The Best of the Canes

Mark Jones — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 12:37:50 -0500

After 12 years of existance in North Carolina after the transfer from Hartford, Connecticut, the Hurricanes have seen it all. Superstars to draft pick surprises, trade jewels to trade busts, the Carolina Hurricanes have been filled with talented players and memorable moments. They've won Stanley Cups, Eastern Conference finals, and many division titles. They've sparked fantastic comebacks, but given up big leads, too. They've scored last-second goals, but also fallen in the closing minute. They've had winning runs and losing streaks. But that's happen to a lot of NHL teams. So what makes the 'Canes special? The players, of course. In this slideshow, I will go back through the years (1997 until today) and find the players that gave the most to the franchise; the scoring leaders, tough hitters, and goaltenders. It's time to declare the All-Time Roster (12 forwards, 6 defense, 2 goaltender) for the Carolina Hurricanes.

Begin Slideshow

Why Edgar Martinez Should Be Inducted Into the Baseball Hall of Fame

PJ Ross — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 02:33:16 -0500

The ballot for the 2010 Major League Baseball Hall of Fame was announced on Friday, and 26 players will be waiting on the phone call to join the most elite group in baseball.

Edgar Martinez is one of the 15 first-time players on the ballot, and he is certainly a unique case to consider.

Since he played the majority of his career as the designated hitter, a role that many voters will look down upon because it only encompasses one facet of the game, Martinez may face difficulties earning the 75 percent needed to be inducted.

However, commissioner Bud Selig said of Martinez, "He is the greatest DH since the rule was put in," and if you consider the DH a specialty role (like that of a closer) then by the same logic Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman should never make the Hall of Fame.

After all, they are the best closers of all time, but they only played a select role on their respective teams.

Another knock against Martinez is that he fell short of 3,000 hits (2,247) and only hit 309 home runs.

But I'm here to tell you that, although I can see the negatives, it would be a travesty if Martinez was denied entry.

While he may have not done anything in the field, Martinez was certainly one of the league's best hitters during his tenure in the majors, hitting .312 and driving in 1,261 runs in 18 seasons of work.

Any manager from the 1990's would confirm the hitting prowess of Martinez and his undeniable domination from the right-handed batter's box.

He went to seven All-Star games and won five Silver Slugger awards, capturing batting titles in 1992 and 1995.

Martinez led the league in on-base percentage twice, a testament to the stunning patience he displayed at the plate, and further evidenced by his 1,283 career walks compared to just 1,202 strikeouts.

In fact, since 1901, only four other players have had more walks than strikeouts (with at least 1200 or more of each) while hitting .300. You might know the others:

Babe Ruth: .342 avg., 2062 BB, 1303 SO
Frank Thomas: .301, 1667, 1397
Jimmie Foxx: .325, 1452, 1311
Hank Aaron: ..305, 1402, 1383
Chipper Jones: .307, 1343, 1231

That's some elite company right there.

Additionally, Martinez was one of the driving forces behind saving baseball in the Pacific Northwest during the 1995 season when he carried the team in the absence of Ken Griffey Jr. during the summer months.

The season was highlighted by their epic comeback in the AL West, and with one swing of the bat on his game-winning double in Game Five of the ALDS, he secured a future for baseball in Seattle.

And those beautiful two-baggers were the cornerstone of his repertoire.

From Day One, they just never stopped coming, as the line-drive hitting Martinez collected 514 in his career.

Martinez used an inside-out swing that always allowed him to keep his hands behind the ball and gave him a chance to collect hits to all fields.

In Seattle adoring fans wore t-shirts that read, "Edgar esta caliente!" (Edgar is on fire), and Martinez has a chance to become the first Mariners player to go into the Hall having completed their entire career with the organization.

In my opinion, he deserves to make the Hall of Fame.

It won't happen this year, or even next year.

Heck, it probably won't even happen within the next five or 10 years because just like Jim Rice, Martinez will be overlooked by voters for reasons unbeknown to me.

But eventually, Edgar Martinez deserves to be among the baseball gods.

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LSU Tigers: A Battle Cry for Coach Les Miles From Death Valley

Henry Ball — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 01:10:31 -0500

In the recently released movie "The Blind Side" about former Ole Miss left tackle Michael Oher, his guardian explains to him that “The Charge of the Light Brigade,” Lord Alfred Tennyson's classic poem is in reality about the Rebels' rivalry game against LSU, now known as the Magnolia Bowl.

The guardian explains that the cavalry, in a display of courage and unity, charges into a heavily fortified valley at the behest of their flawed but courageous and patriotic leader.

Oher then writes an essay relating this story to his own life and wins over a skeptical teacher who was the final obstacle in his path to NCAA eligibility and being able to accept a scholarship offer to play at Ole Miss—or virtually any other university of his choosing.

I must admit, I have followed LSU athletics my entire life and I have always been slightly embarrassed by not having an answer to the question, “Why is Tiger Stadium called Death Valley?”

Of course there is the Wikipedia version—allegedly posted by a Clemson University grad—which is popular with Clemson fans, who claim that their stadium was the first to be dubbed in honor of the Valley of Death.

I’ve also heard explanations related to Mike the Tiger our ‘man eating’ mascot.

Sean Tuohy’s (Oher's guardian) version—however far from being historically accurate—works for me.

More importantly, a cursory look at the story of the Light Brigade draws some fascinating comparisons—in a creative and literary sense—to the current plight of LSU’s Tiger Nation.

The Light Brigade, led by it’s (insert d word) strong and patriotic (loyal) Major General, the Earl of Cardigan found themselves charging into the valley based on misdirected order’s from an underling. Unprotected at their flanks, they faced an insurmountable enemy.

The valley would become known as "the Valley of Death."

Cardigan and his 600 charged into the onslaught of Russian artillery expecting to have back up from the Heavy Brigade, led by the Earl of Lucan, who coincidentally was Cardigan’s predecessor as commander of the Light Brigade and his estranged Brother in Law.

Perhaps it was enmity or distrust, but the Heavy Brigade watched from on high as Cardigan's men were slaughtered.

A national controversy ensued and Cardigan was questioned; surely he was the villain. Why oh why would he charge so outmanned—surely his troops deserved better leadership, perhaps a better man.

Yet, the men of the brigade, those who survived the charge, would rally around their leader: courageous, loyal, flawed and strong.

Lord Tennyson would memorialize their charge and pen the battle psalm:

When can their glory fade?

O the wild charge they made!

All the world wonder’d.

Honour the charge they Made!

Honour the Light Brigade,

Noble six hundred!

Last Saturday, LSU had been out-played physically statistically and on the scoreboard against Ole Miss, but made a wild and valiant charge in the last two minutes and had victory in their sight.

Inexplicably, the Tiger’s through a series of misses (calls, communication, game/clock management, etc…) or a tragedy of errors , if you will, retreated from victory’s view.

Yet, as if fate had deemed it necessary the admittedly flawed yet courageous and loyal leader—head coach Les Miles—still had one last ditched attempt to gain victory yet watched it slip from his grasp.

Like the Earl of Cardigan, the Hat of LSU leads from the front. And like Cardigan, all of the disdain, vitriol and chagrin of the nation (Tiger Nation) has been aimed squarely at him. "If only he’d been more like the former great commander, Lucan our old friend."

In the aftermath, with calls for his head, one thing has been missed and his case must be pled. Those men that charged with him, all aware of each other’s flaws have come to his side and here is what they have said.

“It makes you earn so much more respect for a man who comes out and says something like that,” senior tight end Richard Dickson said.

“Coach Miles has done great things here, been a great coach. The way he comes out and says that means a lot to you as a player and as a man. I earned a lot of respect for our coach for the way he talked to us.”

RB Stevan Ridley added, “I respect him. Any head coach that does that in front of the team and in front of the assistants, that comes up there and says, ‘This was my fault,’ it takes a lot for somebody to swallow their pride and say, ‘I messed something up.’

“He did what he needed to do. There’s nothing else that needs to be said. It says a lot about the person he is, and not just the coach. The team, that was something we needed to hear.”

“He tried to take the blame for the whole game, but I don’t think that’s fair,” LSU guard Lyle Hitt said. “There’s more to the game than just the last 30 seconds. That loss is on everybody’s shoulders.”

Added linebacker Kelvin Sheppard, “People are trying to say the end of the game is the big reason we lost, but the game could’ve been won at any time during the game. He’s taking all the pressure, and it’s really not his fault.”

The men, or soldiers if you will, have taken this leader’s left flank (the ‘blind side’) and the nation (Tiger Fans) needs to take up arms on the right.

This brigade, the mighty Bengal Tigers and its phenomenal senior class, have one more chance for victory in the valley and it comes this Saturday night against the Arkansas Razorbacks!

When the Sun sets and night falls on Death Valley may ALL you Tigers roar.

Do not let their glory fade?

O the wild charge they made!

The entire world did wonder.

But honor the charge they made!

Honor the Senior Class and the leader whom they choose!

Honor them for courage, loyalty and the Victory we shall come to know!

Geaux Tigers!

Sources: Baton Rouge Morning Advocate, LSUsports.net, Lord Tennyson, Microsoft Images

By Henry Ball (aka Southern Man, CFB Czar) Featured Columnist, Syndicated Writer

Contributor @ Bleacher Report , College Gameday Network , and other Sports Media outlets.

Another Must Read: Is Les Miles on the Hot Seat ?

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Derek Jeter Wins 2009 Gold Glove Award: Not as Crazy as You Think

Tommy Feliciano — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 04:25:55 -0500

I realize that Derek Jeter won the 2009 Gold Glove award for shortstops a few weeks ago, and this article may seem dated. Honestly, I admit that I've just been a little lazy. But part of it stems from the fact that I didn't want to get into this mess just yet.

I think I'm ready now, however, and before you comment on this article, please read it. I did put some thought into this, and the least you could do is respond with something intelligent. That having been said...

The Gold Glove award is a joke. An absolute joke. Getting upset about just means that you like getting upset about things. Hardly any thought is put into it, nobody cares, it really is not that serious.

However, some people do like to care about it anyway. One of those people is Rob Neyer. Neyer recently wrote, "And with Jeter and Hunter and Polanco and especially Jones, they just flat blew it, overlooking true excellence in favor of gaudy hitting stats or superficially impressive defensive performances."

Flat blew it? Really, Rob? I understand that Jeter may not have been the best shortstop in the American League this year, but I think that if the voters "flat blew it," they would have selected someone closer to the worst shortstop this year. And Jeter was far from the worst shortstop this year, actually coming close to being the best, believe it or not (and I'm sure most of the readers are going to side with the latter).

Grading, or rating defense is extremely difficult to do. I understand the usefulness of some new statistics, such as the ever-popular Ultimate Zone Rating (or UZR/150, which I see used more often than just standard UZR).

But fielding is so much more than numbers can possibly say. Using numbers like UZR to grade a fielder's range (although it is supposed to measure a combination of factors, it is most reliable for general range) is extremely useful, especially from a scouting point of view. And even just errors and fielding percentage have their merits in the right situations, because you can have great range and still fumble the ball frequently.

But there are mental factors too. Players who are in the right place at the right time, or exceed expectations with heads up plays. It might sound a little preachy, but it's true. Just knowing what to do in a given situation is an extremely valuable asset.

To draw upon an example using our subject, there was Derek Jeter's "flip play" in the 2001 ALCS. There is no way you can quantify something like that, but it really was a great play. I know lots of people probably think it was overrated, but it turned a poor play into an out (and an important one at that).

However, we do have to go on something. And Jeter's range lately has been so damning that it would have been unreasonable to really call him a great shortstop in, say, 2008.

While UZR is less appropriate for a position such as first base, it's very relevant at shortstop, where range is a major factor in what plays you're going to make, and what plays you're not going to make. Jeter's UZR/150 in 2008 was -0.7, and an awful -16.7 in 2007. For the record, if you're below 0, you're considered below average.

Yet Jeter improved in 2009, bringing his UZR/150 to 8.4, the highest its been since the stat has been recorded (since 2002), and possibly for his career. So while we know that that gave Jeter above-average range at short this season, how does it compare to other shortstops?

Jack Wilson - 20.4
Cesar Izturis - 14.1
Adam Everett - 13.6
Elvis Andrus - 11.7
Alex Gonzalez - 10.5
J.J. Hardy - 8.8
Rafael Furcal - 8.5
Derek Jeter - 8.4

So while Jeter clearly didn't have the best UZR/150 of the shortstops in the MLB, he still ranked very high in comparison to the rest of the pack. And we can't forget that we are talking about the American League Gold Glove award.

So we knock off Furcal and Hardy, who both spent the season in the National League, and then Gonzalez and Wilson, who spent less than half a season in the American League. That leaves us with Jeter placing fourth among AL shortstops in UZR/150, trailing Andrus, Everett, and Izturis.

For the record, Neyer selected Elvis Andrus as his choice for the best defensive shortstop of the year. This might seem like a good choice to some people, but to me it seems that he was arbitrarily selecting a shortstop with a good UZR not named Derek Jeter.

The fact of the matter is that Andrus committed 22 errors at shortstop. Twenty-two . I don't care how good your range is, you're not the best defender at your position if you mess up 20+ times. People over-relied on FP to describe how good a fielder a given player was, so for some reason, this meant that we no longer cared about it or errors accumulated.

However, it is still very important to be able to record the outs on balls that you get to.

So with that in mind, we know that Andrus was far from the slickest fielder on the list. And comparing errors between Jeter, Everett, and Izturis, we find that Everett was also in the double-digits with 14, and Jeter and Izturis tied with eight apiece.

Yet Jeter had a better fielding percentage than Izturis (albeit by a point), because he played in 40 more games than Izturis, and more specifically 326 more innings. Jeter played more innings at short than any of the aforementioned shortstops in the AL, and made the fewest mistakes, which must count for something .

He did tie for least errors with Izturis, however, and using their FP (.986 versus .985), there's nothing to suggest that extrapolating that would give Izturis more than another error over Jeter in the same amount of innings. However, like I said, something has to be said about a player who can commit so few errors while being a horse at their position.

I do want to make it clear that I don't necessarily think that Jeter should have won the award. Like I said, it's extremely hard to judge fielding. But Jeter was at least a good pick for the award. It is completely arguable that he was the best shortstop this year, although I may give a slight edge to Izturis.

And on a slightly related note: Another one of Neyer's selections was Kevin Youkilis for first base. Although first base is an even tougher subject that I don't want to get into, for a guy who is arguing the validity of an award, he just picked a player to win a Gold Glove at a position which he logged 647 innings in 78 games.

I don't know about you guys, but I think playing less than half a season at a position should disqualify you from being the best at it. I do have to give Neyer credit though, because Rafael Palmeiro won the award one year while only appearing at first base in 28 games.

Thanks for hearing me out, now rip me apart for claiming that Derek Jeter definitely should've won the award, even though that's something I didn't say. Happy Thanksgiving!

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Trading Jose Lopez: How Can the Mariners Improve in the Process?

Griffin Cooper — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 23:56:29 -0500

WARNING: This article is heavily sabermetrics-oriented.

Assuming we don’t get a second baseman in return, which is quite unlikely, we’re obviously going to need someone to replace him.

In Geoff Baker’s recent article on the subject of trading Jose Lopez, he mentions both Orlando Hudson and Placido Polanco as potential free agent replacements, as well as the possibility of Matt Tuiasosopo or Bill Hall filling the void.

Hudson could be a really nice fit, but he doesn’t want to come to the American League, so if the Mariners do want him, they may end up having to overpay to pry him from the National League, and I don’t see that happening. It’s a shame, too, as he’s quite the nifty little player.

Polanco, on the other hand, seems like a much more realistic possibility. He’s a 3-4 win player who’s going to be earning something like $7 million a year, so there’s no need to worry about overpaying for wins, and he could theoretically be an excellent addition to this Mariners team.

He’s been above average defensively by UZR for six of the last seven seasons, and he’s just about a league average hitter. However, he’d only be a small upgrade in value over Lopez, but he’d cost about $6 million more—so it’d really come down to what the return is in any Lopez deal.

If it were, say, the Jose Lopez, Mark Lowe, and Jason Vargas to Chicago for John Danks deal that Dave Cameron proposed , we’d be trading about $4 million in 2010 salaries and five WAR for about $3 million in 2010 salaries and three WAR.

Then, if we sign Polanco for say a two-year/$14 million deal, we end up with $10 million in 2010 salaries and about 6.5 WAR between Danks and Polanco. Then, when you consider that each WAR is valued at about $4.5 million, we basically end up breaking even, with a very small increase in value, if that makes sense.

But what that does hopefully show is that if we were to make that deal with the White Sox and then sign Placido Polanco, we’d be getting slightly more for our money while improving the on-field product, and being able to do that is going to be huge if we want to contend in 2010.

Then, there are the in-house options. The two Baker brought up, Tuiasosopo and Hall, would pretty much be our only options if we were to trade Lopez. It’s still too soon to tell as to whether or not Tui could handle the starting second baseman job, but he’d in all likelihood be slightly below average defensively and end up being about a 0.5-1 WAR player.

So, if we were to make the Lopez, Lowe, and Vargas for Danks trade, and then stuck Tui at second base, we’d still be trading about $4 million in 2010 salaries and about five WAR, and we’d end up getting about $3.5 million in 2010 salaries and about 3.5-4 WAR.

In that scenario, we’d not only be making the on-field product worse, but we’d also be getting less for our money. So no, trading Jose Lopez and replacing him with Matt Tuiasosopo would not be a good idea—at least not with that trade return.

As for Hall, he’s had very limited experience at second base, and he hasn’t had any substantial time there since 2004. That’s way too small of a sample size to really gather anything from, but for the record, he was roughly average defensively in his time there, and that’s what I’d expect from him going into 2010 if he were to end up there.

It probably won’t matter though, as I don’t see his offense ever reverting to 2006 form, and there’s virtually no way they take an average defender with a sub .300 wOBA and make him an everyday player.

I’d like to think I really got to the bottom of something or came to some sort of conclusion, but it’s still 100 percent speculation, and all of this completely changes if Jose Lopez gets traded as a part of any other deal. God, the offseason sucks.

You can follow me on Twitter here.

Or you can visit my Seattle Mariners blog here.

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Browns Fans Are Still Rejoicing That Braylon Edwards Still Can't Catch or Win

Daniel Wolf — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:09:11 -0500

It has been almost two months since wide receiver Braylon Edwards was traded from the Cleveland Browns to the New York Jets for linebacker Jason Trusnik, wide receiver Chansi Stuckey, and draft picks, but the best part of this deal is that it is looking like the Browns got the better end of the deal.

Tursnik was almost immediately inserting into the starting lineup upon his arrival in Cleveland and has played admirably in the orange and brown with 29 tackles, two sacks, and one safety.

Stuckey has been slow to grasp the offense and after having several drops in his first few appearances finally broke out against the Detroit Lions with five catches for 76 yards and one touchdown.

If Stuckey can continue to contribute, then he will fit in nicely with the Browns who are in a dire need to consistency at the wide receiver position.

Edwards, on the other hand, has had his moments for the Jets, but after seven games, he has not lived up to the billing of being a former Pro Bowl wide receiver.

Sorry Jets fans, but almost every Browns fan could have told you that you were getting a player who may have needed a change of scenery, but bottom line is that Edwards will never be the elite player that he sees in the mirror everyday, or his narcissistic life.

With the Browns, Edwards had 10 catches for 139 yards and with the Jets he has 17 catches for 281 yards and two touchdowns.

The Jets have gotten more drops out of Edwards than anything else, and in his most recent game, he not only dropped a very important pass that could have given the Jets a two-point conversion, but he also fumbled in the game and nearly threw an interception himself.

That's right...the Jets called a pass play for Edwards...crazy!

Yes, there are six more games left and Edwards could break out and get enough receptions to move the third round draft pick the Browns received up to a second round pick, but Edwards' demeanor is far from changed.

No change of scenery can change the fact that Edwards will always drop passes for the rest of his professional career.

Once a dropper, always a dropper.

Finally, when doing a little research, it most be noted that Edwards is 1-15 in his last 16 regular season games he has played.

He was 0-6 in 2008 win the Browns' final six games, then 0-4 in 2009 with the Browns, and since the trade he is 1-5 with the Jets.

It appears the losing follows Edwards no matter where he goes.

A final assessment of this trade will occur after the 2009 season ends.

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Titans and Broncos: A Study of Contrasting Seasons

Donna Cavanagh — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:12:29 -0500

When the NFL schedule came out last spring, a quick glance at the bye weeks showed that two of the teams off in Week Seven were the Titans and Broncos.

If we told you in the summer that one of these two teams would be 6-0 and the other would be 0-6, and then asked you to tell us who would have the winning record, we are confident that you and any other football fan would have replied, “That’s easy—the Titans will be 6-0 and the Broncos will be 0-6.”

We are sure you all know now that it was the Broncos who were 6-0 at Week Seven and the Titans who languished at 0-6.

Teams often use their bye weeks to try to make big changes, get healthy, and right a ship going in the wrong direction. Teams never want their bye to “break their momentum” when things are going right, but sometimes the bye week turns out to be a curse instead of a welcome respite.

When Week Seven arrived, it is as if someone stole all of the Broncos’ momentum and transferred it to Tennessee as a cruel joke.

So, we decided to take a look at the two teams’ seasons to date to see what the PossessionPoints stat could tell us about it. For those of you not familiar with the stat, we will give you a very brief rundown. The stat is based on, among other things, “time of possession” and points scored on a scoring drive.

We have determined significant values where we turn our indicators Green, Red, and Yellow. In a game, a team with a “Green” offense wins better than 75 percent of the time and a team with a “Green” defense wins over 80 percent of the time. We find these color indicators very useful in evaluating team defense and offense.

If you look at the Broncos’ and Titans’ charts below, you can see that they reveal some interesting things. The first six games the Broncos were pretty balanced, mostly led by their defense with four green performances, but their offense did have three green performances.

The Titans had no green performances. In fact, they had three red offensive and three red defensive performances.

Since the bye, the Broncos have been almost completely red, and their best performance was a yellow performance against the Steelers. However, the Titans seem to have found their offense with Vince Young. Their defense had its lone green performance of the year right after the bye, but it is the offense that proved to be the main factor in their recent success.

It is hard to ever say one player is responsible for winning or losing, but the Titans made a switch at QB in the bye week, and it is hard to argue with results.

We’ve been doing a lot of schedule analysis this season, and we have found that frequently in the NFL teams beat the teams they should, and their losses come at the hands of better teams. When teams go on winning or losing streaks, a look at their schedule often provides the answer as to why they are on a winning or losing run.

However, this schedule is not the case with either the Broncos or Titans.

One of the ways we have been looking at this is by looking at “Quality Wins” and “Bad Losses.” By our definition a Quality Win is a win against a team with a .500 or better record, while a Bad Loss is a loss to a team with a sub-.500 record.

When we look at the Broncos and Titans, we see that four of the Broncos' six wins were Quality Wins and two of the Titans' four wins were Quality Wins. In games where both the Titans and Broncos lost, both teams had a Bad Loss.

So we don’t think we can blame or credit the schedule maker with the success and failure of these two teams this season. You just have to blame it on some good old-fashioned fundamental football for the Broncos’ downturn and the Titans’ ascent.

With the Titans, you can certainly make the case like we did earlier that the QB switch changed their fortunes. For the Broncos, we don’t have as pat an answer. Were the Broncos just playing over their heads early in the season and now their weaknesses have caught up to them, or are they not playing to their potential now?

What would a study of these two teams be without at least a glimpse into the future? Here again there are some similarities. Both teams have to face some tough competition. The Broncos have to face the Colts, Eagles, and Giants. The Titans have to face three division leaders in the Cardinals, Colts, and Chargers (we know Broncos fans will be rooting for the Titans in this one).

The Titans' only slim hope for the playoffs is to grab a wild card, and to do this they may have to run the table. Just last year the Titans started the season 10-0; could they finish the remainder of this campaign 10-0? Nothing in the NFL is impossible, but that is a very tall order.

For the Broncos to get to that same 10-win mark, they would need to win four of their remaining six games. To PossessionPoints.com that means that the Broncos must win the three games against the Chiefs (two) and Raiders. They then must find a way to come up with one more Quality Win against the Colts, Giants, or Eagles.

There are a lot of “ifs” out there for these two teams. Both have the opportunity to make a run for the playoffs, but the Titans have a long road up and the Broncos seem to be falling downhill fast.

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Wes Welker: Efficiency Juggernaut

T.A — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:15:39 -0500

It’s seems in today’s day and age that the media flocks to prima-donna players. Using the boorish behavior of these players to fill articles with their atrocious analysis of football.

How many articles have we all read elucidating Terrell Owens’ destruction of team locker rooms? Now how many times have we read an article focused on Terrell Owens habit of dropping footballs throughout his career?

How many times have we heard a football analyst whether it be ESPN or NFL Network question JaMarcus Russell’s lack of work ethic? But we’ve rarely seen these same analyst break down game film or specific plays and show us what exactly JaMarcus has been doing wrong. We rarely see these analyst compare the routes that JaMarcus’ receivers runs to routes of some of the top-tier receivers in the NFL.

The NFL’s lack of quality media coverage, or even lack of quality statistics that the average fan could examine have left football fans to be some of the most ignorant fans in sports.

The media has been so focused on highlighting Terrell Owens lack of production in Buffalo, Chad Ochocinco off-field antics (some even on-field), the NFL’s “lack of parity” that they’ve been completely oblivious to one of the most productive and efficient season by a wide receiver this past decade.

Wes Welker has quietly been the most efficient receiver in the NFL this season. But yet, you rarely hear analyst dissect his fabulous season.

Welker hasn’t put up a lot of touchdowns to the likes of Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, or Larry Fitzgerald, but Wes has been more efficient and productive (when he’s been on the field) than every one of them.

Despite missing two games this year Welker is leading the league in receptions with 79 grabs. His next closest competitor, Reggie Wayne, took two extra games to catch 76 footballs.

No receiver has caught more passes in their first eight games than Wes Welker has. Ever ! His next closest competitor? Marvin Harrison, who had 69 catches his first eight games in 2002.

Welker is on pace for 138 reception, I don’t think it’s far-fetched to think that had he been able to play 16 games this year that he would have had a very good chance of breaking Marvin Harrison’s single-season record for receptions. Keep in mind this is a record many analysts think will never be broken.

Despite being ranking fourth in targets among receivers Welker has caught 79 percent of the passes thrown his way, among receivers targeted more than 80 times this year, Welker’s 79 percent catch percentage leads the entire league.

Welker is fifth in the league in receiving yards and leads the NFL in yards per game (106.8).

Welker ranks 10th in the Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency rankings. Now keep in mind that Welker has been targeted significantly more times than all the receivers ranked ahead of him in terms of DVOA.

Welker ranks fourth in the league in terms of the Football Outsiders DYAR production rankings. Welker and New Orleans Saints receiver Marques Coltson are the only receiver to be ranked in the top-10 for both DYAR and DVOA.

A lot could be made of Randy Moss taking away double coverage and that is why Welker has been able to catch so many passes. However, this misconception is meant to belittle Welker’s production.

Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, Wes Welker, and Randy Moss have all explained in many interviews and conference calls that teams tend to double cover Wes Welker on third down and around the goal line. Need examples? In Super Bowl XLII when Randy Moss caught his fourth quarter touchdown a safety and linebacker were double covering Welker in the slot, this left Moss one-on-one with the cornerback.

The NFL Network has an outstanding show called Playbook. The show’s host Sterling Sharpe, Mike Moyock, and Brian Billick examine game film. In one of the shows they examined Randy Moss’ 71 yard TD catch against he Miami Dolphins. Moss and Welker both ran crossing routes and the safety had to commit to either Moss or Welker, the safety chose the latter, and this left Moss one-on-one with the CB.

Moss and Welker both help each other out, and the misconception that Moss is the sole reason why Welker gets all his catches is very skewed.

Welker could very well break the record for catch percentage with over 130 targets, if he hasn’t already in the last two seasons. But the media will never tell you that.

It’s shame that Welker might very well be snubbed for the Pro Bowl this year, even though he is putting up one of the best receiving season in recent memory.

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Better Hitter: Derek Jeter or Pete Rose?

Perry Arnold — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 15:50:58 -0500

Pete Rose has more hits than any other man who ever played professional baseball.

He finished his long career with 4,256 hits, surpassing the immortal Ty Cobb.

Derek Jeter has now played fourteen seasons with the New York Yankees and is generally recognized as one of the best players and best hitters of his era.

I have long been intrigued thinking of the comparisons of these two men on the field. (Off the field there is no comparison.)

One of the thoughts that is frequently on my mind is whether Jeter could possibly surpass Rose in career hits. As a Yankee fan and as a baseball fan who has always despised Pete Rose, it is my fondest baseball hope that someday Jeter will pass Rose in total hits.

Jeter will have to play well into his forties to get it done. Late this season, there was some indication that Jeter has actually talked about playing long enough to challenge Rose's record. I hope he does.

I did a statistical analysis of Jeter and Rose to compare their career hitting marks. When you look at the gross numbers based on a 162 game average, Jeter comes out ahead in almost every category.

Based on this 162 game average, Jeter beats Rose in runs scored by 119 to 98. Jeter comes out on top in hits with 208 to Rose's 194.

Jeter also wins in RBI per season with 81 to Rose's 60. And Jeter has a higher average (.317) than Rose (.303) and higher OPS+ (121) than Rose (118.)

However, this is not a completely fair analysis because it includes the much later and less illustrious years of Rose's controversial career.

So I went back and took a look at Rose at age 35, the same age as Jeter when the 2009 season finished.

Again, Jeter surpasses Rose in every category except OPS+. Rose wins that comparison with 126 compared to Jeter's 121.

But based again on a 162 game schedule for their first 14 seasons, Jeter averages 119 runs per season to Rose's 108; Jeter has 208 hits per season compared to Rose at 204; and Jeter averages 81 RBI to Rose's 62.

And Jeter has a .317 batting average compared to Rose at .310 at the same points in their careers.

So statistically, Jeter is the better hitter at this stage in his career. He is also within 15 hits of Rose at the same point.

At the end of the season in which Rose turned 35, he had played in 46 more games than Jeter and had 227 more at bats than Derek.

So a quick calculation tells you that Jeter has gotten one hit every 3.152 times at bat while Rose had one hit every 3.217 times at bat.

So Jeter, just barely, is getting more hits per times at bat than Rose had when he was 35.

Will Jeter eventually pass Rose for total hits? Who knows? Time and something more than 7 years will give us the answer.

At Jeter's current hit pace, he will need 7.25 more years to catch Rose. Jeter at that point will be past his 42nd birthday.

Will his body, his team and Minka let him play long enough to challenge Rose? It is going to be a lot of fun finding out.

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Statistically Speaking: Notre Dame vs. Connecticut

Anthony Pilcher — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 10:11:37 -0500

Editor's note: I was at the Ole Miss-LSU game this weekend and was unable to watch Notre Dame play Connecticut. This analysis is directly from the box score and will undoubtedly lack certain insight that comes from viewing the game.

The Irish dropped their third straight Saturday, this time at home, on Senior Day, to the visiting Huskies. For the coaches, players and fans, it feels like 2008 all over again. The Irish had a promising start in both years, but faltered down the stretch.

This game wasn't much different from many others this year. A strong passing attack led by quarterback Jimmy Clausen and wide receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd was not enough to overcome poor red zone offense, no commitment to the running the football, and a defense that cannot stop opposing rushing attacks.

Offense

The Irish gained 452 yards on 80 plays for an average of 5.7 yards per snap. Ball control was phenomenal as Clausen and company generated a time of possession advantage of over six minutes and the 80 plays run was second only to the Washington State game earlier this year.

Officially, the run/pass split was 56.3 percent in favor of the pass. However, when Clausen's runs are removed, that percentage edges up to nearly 60. The first downs follow a similar trend as only seven of Notre Dame's 22 first downs came on the ground.

Only 27.7 percent of the offense came from big gains as five plays amassed 125 yards (25 yards per play). Without these five gains the offense averaged 4.4 yards per snap, the middle of their output for the year.

The Irish were a tale of two halves on third down. Notre Dame converted five of eight third down conversions (62.5 percent) in the first half but only two of eight in the second (25 percent). For the game the offense notched a 43.8 percent efficiency on third down.

In the red zone, the Irish continue to struggle. Points were scored on all six red zone appearances, but only half resulted in touchdowns, one of which came in overtime.

Rushing

The Irish ran the ball 35 times for 123 yards, good for 3.5 yards per carry. Subtracting Clausen's two sacks brings this average up to 4.2 yards per carry. Excluding Clausen's carries altogether, the Irish averaged about the same amount.

There were two explosive runs that went for 42 yards (21 yards per attempt). Without these two runs and excluding sacks the Irish averaged 3.1 yards per carry.

The front five were particularly dominant in their short yardage run blocking. The offense faced short yardage five times in this game. A run was called all five times and each went for a first down.

Armando Allen led the way with 106 yards on 24 carries (4.4 yards per carry).

Passing

Clausen was his usual, extremely efficient self. The junior signal caller completed 30 of 45 pass attempts (66.7 percent) for 329 yards and two touchdowns. This equates to 7.3 yards per attempt and 11 yards per completion.

Three passes went for big gains and accounted for 83 yards (27.7 per pass) and 25.2 percent of the passing yardage. Without these big plays Clausen averaged 5.9 yards per attempt and 9.1 yards per completion, the latter being one of the highest values this season.

For the ninth-straight game the Irish surrendered at least one sack. The front five allowed two in this game (one per 22.5 attempts), but have allowed 23 over the last nine, good for one sack per 15.4 pass attempts. This value is almost 25 percent lower than that of last season.

As mentioned above, Tate and Floyd led the way. The former caught nine balls for 123 yards (13.7 yards per reception) and a touchdown, while the latter hauled in eight passes for 104 yards (13 yards per catch) and a touchdown.

Defense

It was a mixed bag for the Irish defense. Most of the game the front seven played well stopping the run, particularly on first down. The defense also played well in the red zone and on third down, surrendering only 13 points in regulation. But big plays and regressed production against the run were very costly down the stretch.

The Huskies attempted 48 rushes to only 25 passes, running the ball on 65.7 percent run of their snaps. Accordingly, the ground game accounted for over 62 percent of the total yardage and 13 of 21 first downs.

Connecticut ran 73 plays for 372 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per snap-one of the lower values of the year for the Irish defense. It was largely the big play that was Notre Dame's undoing.

Seven plays gained 167 yards (23.9 yards per play) and accounted for nearly 45 percent of the total offense. Without these plays the per-snap average dips from 5.1 to 3.1 yards per snap, one of the lowest outings of the year.

Notre Dame's defense was strong on third down throughout the game as Connecticut managed only three of eight third down conversions in the first half and only one of five in the second. The Huskies converted only 30.8 percent of their third down tries for the day.

The defense also played well in the red zone, allowing scores on only three of five appearances and only allowing a red zone touchdown in the overtime periods.

First down defense was also good for the majority of the day. The Irish defense held 16 of 33 first down plays (48.5 percent) to two or fewer yards and allowed only 2.7 yards per first down play through two quarters of football.

When fatigue became a problem in the second half, however, this average jumped to 6.8 yards per snap. Even worse, on the final 14 first down snaps Notre Dame allowed a gaudy 8.5 yards per play. Only three of these plays were pass attempts.

Rushing

Stopping the run was an important part of winning this game. The Irish were able to hold the Huskies in check for most of the day, but Connecticut head coach Randy Edsall's firm commitment to the running game ultimately paid dividends against a tired Irish defense.

Connecticut ran the ball 48 times for 231 yards (4.8 yards per carry). Both values were second only to Navy for the Irish defense.

Without sacks the per-carry average climbs to 5.1 yards, but big rushing gains were really the story of the game. Connecticut had five explosive running plays gain 109 yards (21.8 yards per rush attempt) and account for 47.2 percent of the total rushing output. Without these five plays the Husky offense averaged only 2.8 yards per rush.

The first down run defense followed a similar trend to the total numbers outlined above. In the first half Notre Dame held Connecticut to 3.7 yards per first down rush and gains of two or fewer yards on nine of 15 (60 percent) first downs.

The second half was another matter. Only seven of 18 plays went for two or fewer yards (38.9 percent) while the Huskies averaged 6.8 yards per rush attempt. The final 11 first down runs for Connecticut averaged 7.5 yards per snap.

As expected, Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon led the way. Todman gained 130 yards and a touchdown on 26 attempts (five yards per carry), while Dixon gained 114 yards on 20 carries (5.7 yards per attempt). Without the two runs by quarterback Zach Frazer the two backs gained 244 yards on 46 attempts for 5.3 yards per carry.

Passing

While the Irish run defense struggled, the pass defense was solid.

Frazer completed only 12 of 25 pass attempts (48 percent) for 141 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The completion percentage was the lowest by an opposing quarterback all season against Notre Dame.

Frazer averaged 5.6 yards per pass attempt and 11.8 yards per completion, both ranking near the bottom of what the Irish have allowed in any game this year.

Two passes went for big gains, garnering 58 yards (29 yards per completion) and accounting for better than 41 percent of the Husky passing offense. Without these gains Frazer averaged only 3.6 yards per attempt and 8.3 yards per completion.

The Huskies averaged -0.3 yards per first down pass in the first half as Frazer completed only one attempt for minus one yards. In the second half things improved for Connecticut as Frazer averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt. But the average was significantly bolstered by a gain of 37 yards to Marcus Easley. Without this completion the Irish defense held their opponent to -1.4 yards per first down pass.

Special Teams

Notre Dame's kickoff coverage allowed its second touchdown return of the season, a critical play that tied the game after an 11 play, 77-yard Irish drive early in the third quarter.

Kicker David Ruffer connected on all three field goal attempts for the Irish and averaged over 66 yards per kickoff, one of the best performances of the season.

The Irish return game was good on punts, and very average on kickoffs. Barry Gallup and Theo Riddick averaged a paltry 18.8 yards per kickoff return while Tate and fellow wide receiver John Goodman averaged 10 yards per punt return.

Freshman punter Ben Turk put his recent woes to bed averaging 47 yards per punt.

Summary

The defense played well enough to win this game. Allowing only 13 points through four quarters of football should get a win. But a special teams breakdown and poor red zone offense allowed Connecticut to keep the game close.

The two turnovers and host of penalties didn't help, but this loss was the result of problems that were present last year and through the first nine games of this season. It is difficult to understand how these deficiencies are repetitive, obvious and fundamental.

For the better part of the last 24 games there has been little improvement in any of these areas. Given their importance to the outcome of a game, this seems to be an indictment of poor coaching. The effort of head coach Charlie Weis and his staff is unquestionable, but the recipe chosen for success is either fundamentally flawed or poorly implemented.

The Irish have one game left to end the season on a high note. But, against another opponent that matches up well, the outcome could very likely be more of the same.

Similar Posts

Statistically Speaking: Notre Dame vs. Washington

Statistically Speaking: Notre Dame vs. Nevada

Statistically Speaking: Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh

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Clash of the Titans: Albert Pujols or Joe Mauer as the Overall MVP?

PJ Ross — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 22:36:57 -0500

Joe Mauer won his first career American League MVP in an almost unanimous decision today.

Albert Pujols—barring some sort of disgusting error by the BBWAA—will win his second consecutive National League MVP trophy early tomorrow afternoon.

Both players are phenomenal talents that played at the highest level throughout the season and were clearly the most valuable player in their respective league.

Just take a look at the raw numbers for each player:

Pujols: .327/47/135/1.101 OPS

Mauer: .365/28/96/1.014 OPS

Those stat lines are jaw-dropping, and one might glance at the astronomical numbers of Pujols and consider him the easy choice for possessing more value.

However, it's my opinion that Mauer is the most valuable player in Major League Baseball.

When you consider more than just the basic stat lines, Mauer had more overall value and was more impacting on the success of his team than Pujols.

At the plate

A lot of people might dismiss the notion that Mauer could even be compared to Pujols and his astronomical power outputs.

And I know, it's pretty undeniable how imposing Pujols is at the plate.

He led all of baseball with 47 home runs and ranked third with 135 RBI.

Mauer, although he had a career year with 28 home runs, is no where near the power threat of Pujols.

But what Mauer lacks in thump he makes up in thwack.

He ripped through pitchers on the junior circuit and notched a .365 batting average, 38 points higher than Pujols at .327.

To put this in perspective, Mauer had 45 fewer at-bats than Pujols, but still had seven more hits for the season.

Mauer, despite the huge advantage in batting average, only edged Pujols by one point in on base percentage (.444 to .443).

Even so, both tallied more walks than strikeouts for the season, with Pujols at 115 walks and 68 strikeouts and Mauer with 76 walks and 63 strikeouts.

A lot of this differential can also be attributed to the 44 intentional walks issued to Pujols—30 more than the 14 issued to Mauer.

Take note that Mauer (4.18) even sees a noticeably higher amount of pitches per plate appearance than Pujols (3.84).

Another compelling piece of evidence in favor of Mauer's batting prowess was his .400 average with two outs and runners in scoring position, which towered over Pujols' mark of .243 in the same situation.

Mauer was also 28 points higher in late and close situations, hitting .310 as compared to Pujols' .282.

Regardless of these splits, it's impressive how each player was remarkably consistent on a month-to-month basis.

This is echoed by the fact that Mauer's lowest monthly average was .309 and Pujols lowest was .289, both of which were posted in the month of July

In the field

I think one of the big pieces of evidence that swings the nod in Mauer's favor is his position as a catcher.

Catchers are inherently more valuable to their team, and therefore Mauer has a more consistent impact on the overall output of his team.

By this I mean that catchers have more responsibility within the game itself, and his standout performance as the field general puts him a rung above Pujols.

From behind the dish, the catcher must know alignments for all positions, including bunt coverages, double-play coverages, pickoff plays, etc.

He also must be able to command and direct the pitching staff not only throughout a game, but for the entirety of the season.

The catcher must establish a working relationship with the pitchers that forms trust between the two parties.

Trust by the pitcher that their battery-mate is making the correct calls, and trust by the catcher that his pitcher can execute the calls.

Mauer has achieved this relationship with his patchwork staff, and his ability to compile a scouting report on the opposition and call a game that will tailor the game to the pitcher's advantage is a unique skill that he possesses.

An additional piece of added value to a catcher is the pounding one takes (as evidenced by Mauer's mysterious back injury that held him out until May) that makes it so difficult to be successful for the entire season.

Mauer has to be given more consideration for his value while maintaining stability behind the plate.

By no means is this a knock on Pujols, as the Machine plays outstanding defense.

But his impact on the defensive side is much lesser than Mauer's.

In the clubhouse leadership

Neither player is the "rah-rah" type of leader, but rather the leader who demonstrates a level of work ethic that is unparalleled by any of his teammates.

Mauer and Pujols work painstakingly hard to set the bar high for the rest of their team and it results in getting more production out of lesser players.

Mauer has the added pressure of having an entire franchise placed on his back, and without him the Minnesota Twins would just about be left for dead.

An All-American at Cretin-Derham Hall high school in St. Paul, Mauer has excelled at being a hometown hero and was been able to carry the Twinkies into the postseason with a captivating run in September to catch the Detroit Tigers.

Pujols, on the other hand, has the benefits of a more fiscally bold organization.

After getting little help in the first half of the season, Pujols got the luxury of his team acquiring Matt Holliday to provide him with some protection in the order.

Inserting Holliday into the lineup helped the Cardinals pull out of an early-August deadlock with the Chicago Cubs and secure a Central division title.

Of course, the front office aspect of the game is completely out of the control of each player.

Still, we must factor into the value that Mauer is at a distinct competitive disadvantage and managed to take him team equally as far as Pujols did with Cardinals.

Who gets the edge?

After analyzing the body of work for each player in 2009, I have to give the edge in value to Mauer.

When you look beyond the basic numbers and dissect what builds those statistics, I think that Mauer had more impact on the Twins that Pujols did on the Cardinals.

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Is the Yankees' Jorge Posada Cooperstown-Bound at the End of His Career?

Christopher Chavez — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:01:14 -0500

A catcher has won the 2009 American League Most Valuable Player Award. It was not Yankees catcher, Jorge Posada, but Minnesota's Joe Mauer. Jorge Posada possibly was not even in consideration for the award. But the Yankees veteran has just won his fifth World Series title. Does Jorge Posada have the numbers to be enshrined in Baseball's Hall of Fame.

Jorge Posada could go down as a Yankees legend...or at least a great fan favorite. But in the last few months, the phrase "Future Hall of Famer" has started to attach itself to Jorge Posada's name. It is very questionable whether or not the Yankees catcher is deserving of that title.

There are 16 catchers enshrined in Cooperstown as Hall of Famers. Many believe that when Ivan Rodriguez retired he could be the next one to join the Hall of Famers in Cooperstown. But personally I believe that Mike Piazza will be the next Hall of Fame catcher and he will go in as a New York Met.

But before Piazza and/or Rodriguez goes into the Hall of Fame, we should take time to compare Jorge Posada to one of the HOF catchers that best resembles Posada's career.

Gary Carter played in 19 Major League Baseball seasons for four teams. By the end of Posada's career, he would have played close to Carter's 19 seasons and possibly all for one team, the New York Yankees. Posada's home-run total stands at 243 and could come very close to Carter's 324. Posada's (964) R.B.I. total is even closer to the former Montreal Expos' catcher (1,225)! Offensively Posada could have himself a Hall of Fame type* year.

The reason an asterisk was placed after the Hall of Fame type year is because over the years there have been stats that have guaranteed a player an entry into baseball's White House. Whether it's 500 home-runs, 300 wins, 3,000 hits, or 3,000 strike-outs, Posada doesn't come close to some of these "cut-offs." This is where Posada's Hall of Fame chances diminish.

He has proven himself as a clutch performer for the Yankees. No need to look for proof for that other than the five World Series rings that he has around his fingers. Posada has been a great communicator with his pitchers, with the exception of AJ Burnett this season. He has served as a mentor to young players and a role model to even younger players of the sport. Posada is a great guy, but being a great guy doesn't always get a guy into the Hall of Fame.

In the end, I do not see a plaque in Cooperstown with Jorge Rafael (Villeta) Posada's name. At most the Yankees could retire his No. 20. to stand on the same wall as other Yankee fan favorites like Reggie Jackson and Ron Guidry. Guidry may not be in the Hall of Fame, but Yankee fans grew very close to the Louisiana Lightning that they decided to put his no. 49 in the Yankees wall of retired numbers. The same could happen to Posada.

It might be too early to tell. Posada could have a stunning year and improve his stats to read like Johnny Bench's or Yogi Berra's. Jorge Posada is a very nice man and should be rewarded for his closeness to the fans and his teammates some way at the end of his career.

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The Race For National League MVP: Can Albert Pujols Be Unseated?

PJ Ross — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:05:35 -0500

If Joe Mauer was a lock for the American League MVP, then Albert Pujols is a lock, deadbolt, and steel reinforced wall to win the National League honors.

Mauer received 27 of 28 first-place votes, nearly taking the award unanimously, and I think Pujols will complete the clean sweep of the senior circuit.

Tomorrow afternoon the voting results will be handed down and there's just no way you can give a first-place vote to anyone other than the Machine based upon the body of work he compiled in 2009.

If he wins his second consecutive MVP, he will be the first player to do so since Barry Bonds in 2003-2004.

Just watching Pujols work at the plate is something to behold.

The way he stays so perfectly balanced and calmly bends at the knees while timing the pitch is purity at it's finest.

He is a workhorse and a consummate teammate, and Pujols carried a mediocre St. Louis Cardinals' lineup until the arrival of Matt Holliday.

With the ridiculous numbers Pujols posted this season, I contemplated not even breaking down the other potential MVP candidates.

Then I realized that someone has to come in second, right?

Let's take a look at how the voting will shakeout:

Pujols (.327/47/135)

He had another unreal season and will be adding his third MVP trophy in the last five years to his display case.

The only knock that can be made on the Machine is the power outage he experienced down the stretch run.

In some respects, that makes the impressive numbers he accumulated for the season even more powerful, because they were almost done being tallied by the beginning of September.

With the inevitable Pujols crowning in mind, I thought it would be interesting to explore who will battle for the remaining share of votes.

Runner Up: Prince Fielder (.299/46/141)

Much like Miguel Cabrera in the American League, Fielder quietly put together an excellent offensive season.

Fielder played in all 162 games this season, and his OPS (1.014) was third in all of baseball behind only Pujols and Mauer.

And who can forget the walk-off home run celebration when Fielder "shook the Earth" and sent his teammates to the ground at home plate?

Third Place: Hanley Ramirez (.342/24/106/27 SB)

This kid is flat out phenomenal.

The 2006 Rookie of the Year had huge expectations placed upon him entering the season, and he certainly came through with a big time season at the plate.

Although he saw a dip in home runs, Ramirez increased his RBI total from 67 to 106 while his average skyrocketed from .301 in 2008 to a league leading .342 in 2009.

Fourth Place: Andre Ethier (.272/31/106)

"Mr. Miracle" mounted a career year in home runs and RBI on the most winning team in the National League.

He established a new level of clutch hitting in the late innings during the regular season, socking four walk-off home runs and six walk-off hits total in 2009.

In the ninth inning or later, he hit .317 with four home runs 17 RBI.

Honestly, I don't think any of the other three candidates have the slightest chance to knock off the incumbent Pujols.

Each player had a top-notch season, but Pujols was otherworldly in all aspects of the game and he deserves to win.

Not only is he the premier power hitter in all of baseball, but he also offers top-line glove work at first base.

Combine that with the fact he stole 16 bases this season, something you wouldn't expect from a hulking slugger, and it's obvious that Pujols is the runaway favorite to take home his third MVP award.

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Meyer To Remain In Florida: Where Does Notre Dame Turn Now?

Henry Ball — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:41:17 -0500

ESPN is reporting that Urban Meyer will remain at Florida, in his own words, "for as long as they will have me!"

The announcement coming after rampant speculation that Meyer would be the primary target for Jack Swarbrick, Notre Damn's Athletic Director, who is expected to terminate current head coach Charlie Weis at the end of this season.

Swarbrick has not publicly acknowledged that Weis will be fired, only that "the football program will be evaluated at the end of the season."

If the evaluation includes a review of the expectations set by Charlie Weis himself,who said theat he was not hired to go 6-5 and that 6-5 wasn't good enough,then it can't be good for Weis who is currently 6-5.

Assuming the Fighting Irish blogosphere is correct, he will be out.

Names for his replacement have ranged from Urban Meyer to Bob Stoops and a possible return of the Doctor, Lou Holtz. After all, he is only 72 years old and is mostly coherent in ESPN's Gameday courtroom,where he regularly annihilates co-analyst Mark May with superior football knowledge and wisdom.

Will an aging Irish icon be roaming the sidelines under the watchful eye of touchdown Jesus next year? Probably not.

It will not likely be Charlie Weis or Urban Meyer either so the big question is, who's the next target for the Irish?

By Henry Ball (aka Southern Man and CFB Czar) Featured Columnist and Syndicated Writer

Henry contributes to Bleacher Report, College Gameday Network, and other Sports Media outlets.

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Joe Mauer: Is the Twins Catcher's Position the Main Reason He Won the MVP Award?

Cliff Eastham — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:07:37 -0500

In a showdown of American League's "best," it probably comes as a surprise to very few (living outside of New York) that Joe Mauer won the Most Valuable Player Award walking away. The only other first-place vote went to Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers.

Catchers seem to have a bone tossed their way on a regular basis, don't they?

What's that? You disagree, you say?

We must look no further than last season (2008) when Chicago Cubs catcher Geovanny Soto won the National League Rookie of the Year Award (running away) from should-have-been winner Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds.

Doubt me if you must, but just check the numbers. Votto batted .297 with 24 home runs and 84 RBI. Soto's numbers were similar but inferior: .285, 23 HR, 86 RBI. Surely you will show me more respect than to attempt to say those two RBI assured him passage on such a runaway train.

I don't wish to digress from the purpose of this piece; I was just offering up a recent example of "behind the plate" preferences. I could go on, but then what is the point?

Am I attempting to diminish Mauer's great year and his first MVP trophy, not to mention that incredible .365 average? No, not at all.

Should it have been one of the New York Yankees since they did win the World Series—say, perhaps, Mark Teixeira or Derek Jeter? Yes, I think Tex should have been the winner, and let me tell you why.

Teixeira won two legs of the Triple Crown, tied with Carlos Pena for the league lead in homers with 39, and was the league leader in RBI with 122. The only remaining leg of the Crown was won in convincing fashion by Mauer with an incredible .365 batting average. Mauer did lead the league in OBP, slugging percentage, and OPS.

Both men are Gold Glove winners, but if there is another first basemen with the defensive skills of Tex, I wish someone would bring him to the forefront so we could lay hands on him. He also tied for the league lead in total bases with Cabrera, at 344.

The best "overall" year at the plate of anyone in the American League was crafted by Cabrera. It is still hard for me to believe he is only 26 years old. Let us get out our pencils and compare apples to apples—that is to say Cabrera and Mauer. Cabrera's vital signs were .324 with 34 homers and 103 RBI. The Tigers first baseman had more runs (96-94), hits (198-191), doubles (34-30), home runs (34-28), RBI (103-96), and total bases (344-307) than Mauer.

As is the case nearly every year, there are disputes in many of the categories voted on by those slick-talking sages (baseball writers) who are oozing with acumen.

Condensing a long story into a "Reader's Digest" format, do I think Joe Mauer is undeserving of the award? No, of course not; I just think Mark Teixeira is a tad more deserving.

What's your story?

Cliff Eastham is a B/R Featured Columnist for the Cincinnati Reds.

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The Tail Wagging The Dog: The Role of Fantasy Baseball

Tom Au — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 11:17:16 -0500

Professionals in the game of baseball, managers perhaps more than players, will hate to admit this. But it was fantasy baseball that shaped a lot of how we now think about the actual sport. And while few, if any teams are as yet run by amateurs, it must be conceded that the amateurs to the game revolutionized the way the game is currently run.

Everyone knows what ACTUALLY happened in a particular game. What people want to know, however, are the "what if" scenarios: What would likely have happened if a manager had replaced Player A in the batting order with Player B. Or even, what is likely to happen if Player A is traded for Player C. Or should pitcher X have been "lifted" for a reliever, and if so, which one?

Following the development of high speed computers, "quants" have long wondered whether baseball teams can be managed analytically. Foremost among them is a writer named Bill James, the creator of "sabermetrics" or baseball science, who was perhaps the most avid person in this pursuit.

Such writers would pose questions like, do pitchers lose effectiveness after they get above a certain "pitch count?" And what kind of batters/pitchers fare best against left or right handed pitchers/batters? A painstaking analysis of historical statistics would often provide an answer.

Proponents of "scientific" baseball like James presented their findings to managements of teams, who listened with a tin ear. This was new twist, because most of the similar talents seem to end up in places like hedge funds (although yours truly spans both worlds).

The "professionals" had their own long-established ways of doing things, based on established practice, rather than "science," and "amateurs" like James were regarded as unhelpful at best, heretical at worst.

Sabermetrics was, instead, "adopted" by the new past time of fantasy baseball, which provided an outlet for answering these questions. It allowed amateur "managers" to use real players to create fictitious teams in combinations that usually differ from real life ones.

The results of the fantasy teams are an aggregate of the real-life players on the team, more or less, but some judgments will have to be made. Suppose the members of your fantasy team collective produced ten hits, two of them home runs; how many runs would that translate to?

It could be as few as two, if the home runs were solo, and the other hitters were stranded. On the other hand, eight runs is a possibility if the bases were loaded both times. (And let's say that the other hits produced no runs).

Realistically, four or five runs might be produced by the homers, with the other hits producing one or two runs more. Any given thing could happen in any given game, but over time, the aggregates would provide a history of outcomes from any given situation.

This could, in turn, be reduced to a set of likely outcomes (in the above example, the number of runs credited to the team would not be two or eight but some intermediate number).

These fantasy leagues raised some important questions. Do runs scored correlate with wins? Or should managers concentrate on getting "clutch" hits and runs? Apparently, the answer is a bit of both. As I discussed in a previous piece, the Los Angeles Dodgers get enough hits (and runs) to be a World Series contender.

While they didn't, in large part because of "unlucky" games, a fantasy team that was a facsimile of it would earn more wins by "formula" would do well in fantasy. Likewise, teams like the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies win more games facsimiles of such teams would be penalized in fantasy.

This effort led the theorists to study relationships about the value of different components of offense in scoring runs, and ultimately wins. The least common denominator was total bases (the number of walks and singles plus one additional base for each double, two for each triple, and three for each home run).

One result was that walks, hitherto relegated to the role of "pitchers' errors," were reinstated as a legitimate batting tool. This was particularly true if you had sluggers behind the walkers to drive them home.

Suddenly, people realized that batters like the Toronto Blue Jays' (formerly the Pittsburgh Pirates) Jose Bautista (pictured above), who had a mediocre batting average, but drew an inordinate number of walks, and thus got on base frequently, had real value to a team.

Pitching could be analyzed in much the same way. About a decade ago, an amateur analyst named Voros McCracken hypothesized that pitchers' "contributions" to the game could be reckoned by the number of home runs, strikeouts, and base on balls given up.

This was because they were the only plays where the interaction was solely between pitcher and batter. Everything else, specifically batting average on balls in play (BABIP) could be attributed to luck or defense.

McCracken's backtests on historical pitching data showed that this was at least a plausible hypothesis, and if there is any other relationship that better describes pitching, no one has found it. Bill James described these findings as "very significant, very useful."

Their hobbyhorse came of age with the arrival of a new generation of young Ivy League educated General Managers like the Los Angeles Dodgers' Paul DePodesta or the Boston Red Sox' Theo Epstein. Either of whom could have parleyed their talents into MBA programs and careers on Wall St., but chose instead to focus on baseball.

Also noteworthy is DePodesta's former boss, Billy Beane of the Oakland A's, who was eager to adopt this "collegiate" way of thinking because he was a major league ball player who didn't go to college.

Fantasy leagues can also test the effect of hypothetical new game parameters by imposing team restrictions not found in the sport itself. For instance, it could help answer the question of how much of an "unfair advantage" the New York Yankees' almost unlimited budget gives them.

Some leagues could restrict budgets to, say, $80 or $100 million a year to prevent the phenomenon of having a bunch of highly qualified, highly paid players on one team.

In such a fantasy league, a manager who drafted, say Alex Rodriguez, might not be able to also afford Derek Jeter and/or Mark Teixeira unless (s)he wanted to fill some spots with cheap "replacement" players; a problem that the real Yankees don't have.

Fantasy could answer the opposite questions by removing the budget constraints of "small market" teams. How far could a Kansas City Royals team go if you put some hitting next to Zack Greinke? Or a good-hitting Texas Rangers team, if you gave it some decent pitching?

Nevertheless, fantasy baseball has already made its mark. Fantasy players (and sports writers on this site) are now getting entry-level jobs in "front offices" of baseball clubs on the strength of what they did there. So it may contribute a general manager someday soon.

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Fantasy Basketball Box Score Breakouts: Nov. 22, 2009

Ryan Lester — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 09:11:50 -0500

Before we get started, let’s take a look at the Week 5 NBA schedule to help you set your fantasy rosters (click here for article ). Now, here’s a look at some fantasy basketball players that blew up the box score last night.

Jason Williams, Orlando Magic
39 MIN, 16 PTS, 5-9 FG, 4-4 FT, 2 3PM, 5 REB, 3 AST, 2 STL

Williams is a decent fantasy option with Jameer Nelson out.

Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors
29 MIN, 14 PTS, 6-7 FG, 2-5 FT, 8 REB, 1 AST, 2 STL, 1 TO

Johnson had a nice little game, but he’ll need to do it more often to make him worthy of a roster spot.

Jarrett Jack, Toronto Raptors
32 MIN, 8 PTS, 3-9 FG, 2 3PM, 7 REB, 11 AST, 1 STL

Jack has his second consecutive solid game. It looks like he’s figuring his role out and could become worthy of a roster spot.

Kendrick Perkins, Boston Celtics
37 MIN, 16 PTS, 6-7 FG, 4-6 FT, 13 REB, 1 AST, 4 BLK, 3 TO

You knew he’d have a monster game against the Knicks.

Nate Robinson, New York Knicks
27 MIN, 19 PTS, 7-11 FG, 2-3 FT, 3 3PM, 3 REB, 1 AST, 2 BLK, 1 TO

You know Nate has this kind of performance in him, especially in this system, but he needs to earn a more defined role before I would consider adding him.

Nazr Mohammed, Charlotte Bobcats
18 MIN, 18 PTS, 8-10 FG, 2-4 FT, 5 REB, 2 STL, 2 BLK

Nice game, but I’m not ready to endorse him.

Marcus Thornton, New Orleans Hornets
38 MIN, 24 PTS, 9-19 FG, 1-2 FT, 5 3PM, 2 REB, 1 AST, 3 STL, 1 TO

Thornton is on fire. Add him if he’s available.

Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder
32 MIN, 11 PTS, 4-12 FG, 3-4 FT, 13 REB, 5 BLK

Serge was a force on the boards and patrolling the paint. Unfortunately he’s too inconsistent to add right now.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com .

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Analyzing the Pittsburgh Steelers Safeties' Ability To Defend the Pass

TJ Jenkins — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 03:17:51 -0500

Yesterday we took a look at the Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks and their pass coverage skills, today we're going to look at the Steelers safeties and their ability to defend the passing attack.

As with the corner situation, three Steelers safeties have taken at least 25 percent of the snaps at either the free safety or strong safety position: Troy Polamalu, Ryan Clark, and Tyrone Carter.

Only Clark has taken over 50 percent of the defensive snaps at the position due to Polamalu being injured and Carter playing in his stead.

With his latest injury keeping him out for what appears to be at least one month, let's take a look at the long haired Samoan standout from the University Of Southern California .

In 242 defensive plays, Polamalu has been targeted by opposing quarterbacks 19 times and has given up 10 completions for a total of 52.6 percent.

Though leading the safety position in tackles, he's also leading in yards allowed with 122 yards total, yards after the catch with 55 and missed tackles with two. He's also given up one touchdown.

To his credit though, he also leads in interceptions with three (in limited time) and passes defended with two.

Opposing quarterback's only average a passer rating of 50.7 against the former Trojan.

Moving onto his replacement, Tyrone Carter we see a player who has taken 287 snaps at the safety position whilst filling in as an injury replacement for both Polamalu and Clark.

He's been targeted 13 times, allowing only six receptions (46.2 percent) for 34 yards.

Carter has picked off two passes, both against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night when he was filling in for Clark, but has also allowed two touchdown passes, more than the entire Pittsburgh secondary combined.

Opposing quarterbacks average a measly 53.0 rating against the backup safety of the defending champs.

On to the stud of the Pittsburgh secondary in 2009, Ryan Clark.

The former LSU Tiger has 40 tackles this season, effectively wrapping up the ball carrier all but one time.

Add to that impressive tackling statistic the fact that he's intercepted two passes, deflected one and has not allowed a touchdown all year long and you've got the safety that everyone expects Polamalu to be.

Clark has only allowed three receptions out of 12 attempts this year for 17 total yards and a 5.7 average, the same as Carter.

In fact the longest pass he's allowed in his coverage this year was a nine yard completion.

Perhaps the most impressive statistic is the rating that quarterbacks have when throwing against the vicious hitter, a stunning 0.0.

As you can clearly see, the leader of the secondary this year is not Polamalu, perhaps due to injury or perhaps due to Clark stepping his game up to match and/or surpass that of his counterpart.

Clark is the quintessential safety for any team and it's hard to believe that the Steelers will allow him to part ways with the team any time soon.

Using the statistics given, Clark is actually the best safety in the NFL when one takes into consideration the amount of time he sees on the field.

As always, TJ Jenkins' work can also be found at the Pittsburgh Pigskin Blog and at Sports Jabber .

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Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin: Scoring the Saga

Mike Leanza — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:42:12 -0500

Beating a dead horse; a phrase I've learned to love, a phrase that I hope to avoid in this article.

We've all heard everyones take on the fight Saturday, whether it be Tito fans insisting upon a rematch to settle the 1-1 tie, or Forrest fans insisting that Forrest is back.

I agree with both, but that's not what I'm here for.

At UFC 106 Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz engaged in the long, and I mean long, awaited rematch of their UFC 59 battle. Forrest was coming off of a two fight losing streak, one which saw him lose his Light Heavyweight belt and then be thoroughly embarrassed by the best fighter in the world.

Forrest even went as far as saying that he was broken.

On Saturday, he showed that he was fixed.

Tito was coming off of major back surgery and an 18 month hiatus from the sport he had once dominated. A lot happened for Tito in those 18 months.

He became the proud father of twin boys, made several inklings of a potential deal with UFC rival Strikeforce, buried the hatchet with arch-nemesis Dana White, re-signed with the UFC, and had his original original opponent Mark Coleman bail out due to injury.

Finally, after 18 months away from the game, "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" returned.

Finally, after 43 months of waiting, Forrest Griffin would get his rematch.

The battle was a good one, but it got me thinking (don't you love it when that happens). The split decision victory, this time awarded to Forrest Griffin, was just as close as the original war, awarded to Ortiz.

When the decision was announced, I didn't have the same reaction as everyone else. I wasn't jumping off of my couch with glee or screaming at my TV in disgust.

I was silent in a state of deep thought. What was my thought? I wondered who would come out the winner if all six rounds were judged at the same time on the same scorecard. Lets figure it out.

In order to do this I watched both fights in succession, keeping track of every significant moment and keeping my very own scorecard. As soon as the first fight ended, without watching the decision, I switched over to the second fight, scoring it as round four.

UFC 58

Round 1

Dominance. For those of you wondering how the guy at UFC 106 once dominated the Light Heavyweight division, take a look at the first round of this fight.

About 30 seconds into the fight Tito scored one of his patented precision takedowns. From there Tito Ortiz, renowned as one of the kings of ground and pound, did exactly that, pounding away at the Ultimate Fighter winner and future champion. Griffin would get up, only to end up on his back 30 seconds later. The round would end with Ortiz in the dominant position, taking the round with ease.

10-8 Ortiz

Round 2

In this round it seemed as if Griffin had become a completely different fighter after a one minute sitdown with his corner. Forrest was clearly the aggressor putting together crisp combinations and avoiding all five takedown attempts by Ortiz.

Clearly Griffin had learned his lesson. With no ground fighting in this round, I gave it to the man with the more aggressive and effective striking.

10-9 Griffin

Round 3

This round was unbelievably hard to score. I had to watch this round three times in order to make sure that I scored it right.

After watching it for the second time I considered giving the round a score of 10-10. Then I created a system that works very well if done correctly. I scored this round minute by minute.

After every minute I'd give a tally (yes, a tally) to the winner of that minute. Tito won the first two minutes due to more effective striking, Griffin took the next for the same reason. Then it happened, with 1:38 remaining in the round Ortiz scored the takedown, taking the minute, and the round.

10-9 Ortiz

UFC 106

Round 4

This was another round that was pretty tough to score. On one hand you have Ortiz shooting for and getting a takedown and working some ground and pound, but on the other hand a majority of the round was spent standing with Forrest getting the better of Tito. Although I'm a sucker for a takedown, I feel like Forrest had the better round. He was able to avoid any damage and used a kimura attempt to get back on his feet and fight his fight.

10-9 Griffin

Round 5

It took "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" not even 30 seconds to take this fight to where he wanted it. After a pretty good display of stand-up by Tito, Griffin telegraphed one of his infamous leg kicks and Tito took him to the danger zone.

Don't worry Forrest fans, your boy would get back up and manage to kick Tito in his mouth, something I'm sure some other people would like to do.

Unfortunately that's the only thing of mention the Forrest was able to do in this round. Tito would take him down again and bloody the perennial bleeder with some vicious ground and pound.

10-9 Ortiz

Round 6

I'd like to take this time to reminisce on a classic WEC middleweight bout. It was WEC 36, Paulo Filho was set to defend his title against Chael Sonnen in a rematch of a fight that took place a year prior.

Filho, the favorite, did absolutely nothing in this fight. He just walked around seemingly dazed and confused as Chael Sonnen took every round with ease. At UFC 106 in the third round of the main event, Tito Ortiz became Paulo Filho. Griffin imposed his will on a seemingly careless Ortiz winning the round without question.

10-8 Griffin

After 6 rounds of competition, the final scorecard reads 56-56 with this epic being declared a draw.

If anymore incentive was needed for a third fight, this is it. I watched these fights for two hours straight, going over each round numerous times before finally deciding on a score. I had no idea that what I had done would add up to a draw.

I have no preferences between these fighters, in fact, I'm big fans of both and couldn't decide who to root for on Saturday.

Rumor has it that these two will be coaching the next season of The Ultimate Fighter which begins taping in two months. The season would culminate with these two fighting theie rubber match (unless one of these men is offered a part in a film adaptation of a television classic).

Dana White, make this happen. Both of these men were great in there previous seasons as TUF coaches, and the fans want rounds 7,8, and 9.

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