Bleacher Report - NFL Predictions

Fantasy Football: Week 12 Start Em' And Sit Em'

The Sportmeisters — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 23:02:33 -0500

Welcome to the best time of the year sports fans. I will tell you who I think you should start or who I think you should sit for your fantasy team. This year, I will give you your obvious must starts (guys you start every week no matter who they play), a few players from each position who you should start, a sleeper start em’, and a must sit em’. I will also be giving projections for those players. If you have more questions, don’t forget to join me for my Sunday Morning Start Em’/Sit Em’ Chat from 10:45 a.m. to 12:45 p.m. Go to www.Sportmeisters.com for more info. Enough talk, let’s get down to business!

QB Obvious Must Starts

Drew Brees —NO vs. NE – Projection: 275 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

Peyton Manning —IND vs. HOU – Projection: 300 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

Tom Brady —NE vs. NO – Projection: 300 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

Philip Rivers —SD vs. KC – Projection: 295 Yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Kurt Warner —ARI vs. TEN – Projection: 280 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

QB Start Em’

Carson Palmer —CIN vs. CLE —After three disappointing games in which Palmer has thrown just one touchdown and one interception, without throwing for more than 225 yards, a game against the 26^th ranked pass defense of the Cleveland Browns couldn’t come at a better time. In his last five games against them, he has 14 touchdowns. Start Em’. Projection: 270 Yards, 3 TD, 0 INT

Matt Ryan —ATL vs. TB —Ryan finally broke out of his slump last week with 268 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants. This week, he faces the 13th ranked pass defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have allowed 22 passing touchdowns on the year. Start Em’. Projection: 275 Yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Alex Smith —SF vs. JAX —While Smith hasn’t lit the world on fire, he hasn’t been too bad either. He played well last week against a good Green Bay defense, throwing for 227 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. If you own him, this would be the week he could surprise you against the 25th ranked pass defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have allowed 17 passing touchdowns this year. Sleeper Start Em’. Projection: 250 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

QB Sit Em’

Joe Flacco —BAL vs. PIT – Flacco hasn’t been great in his last four games, throwing just one touchdown and three interceptions. This week, he faces the 12th ranked Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense that will be extremely fired up after being upset by the lowly Chiefs last week. Sit Em’. Projection: 240 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Matt Schaub —HOU vs. IND —As good as Schaub has been this year, he has just three touchdowns to four interceptions in his last three games, although two of those games he did throw for over 300 yards. However, he faces the Indianapolis Colts and their 18th ranked pass defense this week and they have allowed just seven touchdowns through the air all year. Plus, Schaub has just two touchdowns and four interceptions in his last two games against them. Sit Em’. Projection: 285 Yards, 2 TD, 2 INT

Matt Cassel —KC vs. SD —After a surprisingly good game last week against Pittsburgh, Cassel will fall back to Earth against the 11th ranked San Diego pass defense, where he completed just 10 passes for 97 yards and three interceptions in week seven. Must Sit Em’. Projection: 150 Yards, 1 TD, 3 INT

RB Obvious Must Starts

Adrian Peterson —MIN vs. CHI —Projection: 115 Yards Rushing, 1 TD, 2 Receptions, 20 Yards

Maurice Jones-Drew —JAX vs. SF — Projection: 80 Yards Rushing, 1 TD, 4 Receptions, 35 Yards

Steven Jackson —STL vs. SEA —Projection: 120 Yards Rushing, 1 TD, 3 Receptions, 25 Yards

Chris Johnson —TEN vs. ARI —Projection: 100 Yards Rushing, 1 TD, 3 Receptions, 30 Yards

Ray Rice —BAL vs. PIT —Projection: 80 Yards Rushing, 1 TD, 6 Receptions, 50 Yards

RB Start Em’

LaDainian Tomlinson —SD vs. KC — LT looks to be back and fully healthy with 44 carries for 169 yards and three total touchdowns in the past two games. This week, he should do better than his 71 yards performance against the Chiefs and their 27^th ranked run defense. Start Em’. Projection: 95 Yards Rushing, 1 TD, 2 Receptions, 15 Yards

Joseph Addai —IND vs. HOU —Addai has quietly put together a strong fantasy year thus far with 10 total touchdowns and 788 all-purpose yards. This week, he faces the 22nd ranked run defense of the Houston Texans, a team which he had 112 total yards and two touchdowns against in week nine. Start Em’. Projection: 65 Yards Rushing, 1 TD, 3 Receptions, 35 Yards, 1 TD

Ricky Williams —MIA vs. BUF —Williams has proved these past two weeks that he can still be a featured back in the NFL with back to back 100+ yard games and three touchdowns against Tampa Bay and Carolina. This week, he has another great matchup against the Buffalo Bills and their 31st ranked run defense, whom he torched for 85 yards and a touchdown in week four while he was still splitting carries with the now injured Ronnie Brown. Start Em’. Projection: 100 Yards Rushing, 1 TD, 2 Receptions, 15 Yards

Thomas Jones —NYJ vs. CAR —Did we all forget about Thomas Jones this year? All he has done is put up 884 yards and eight touchdowns. This week, he faces the Carolina Panthers and their 26th ranked run defense that allowed Ricky Williams to find the end zone three times last week. Start Em’. Projection: 100 Yards Rushing, 1 TD

Bernard Scott —CIN vs. CLE —Even if Cedric Benson plays this week, I like Scott. He ran for over 100 yards last week with Benson out and faces the 29th ranked run defense of the Cleveland Browns this week. Do you really think that Cincinnati will leave Benson in when they are up 28—0? Me neither! Can you say garbage time points? Sleeper Start Em’. Projection: 75 Yards Rushing, 1 TD, 2 Receptions, 20 Yards

RB Sit Em’

Rashard Mendenhall —PIT vs. BAL —As good as Mendenhall has been over the past few weeks, I still have to bench him against the Baltimore Ravens and their fifth ranked run defense that has allowed just six rushing touchdowns all year. Sit Em’. Projection: 60 Yards Rushing

Matt Forte —CHI vs. MIN — Forte has pretty much been a bust this year. However, his ability to catch passes out of the backfield has been what keeps him from being a complete bust. While he has had just 39 carries for 108 yards in the past three games, he has had 18 receptions for 214 yards in those same three games. This week, he faces the Minnesota Vikings, who are ranked third in the NFL against the run, allowing just three rushing touchdowns all year. If he is going to have any impact, it will be as a receiver, but I still say to Sit Em’. Projection: 40 Yards Rushing, 6 Receptions, 55 Yards

Marshawn Lynch —BUF vs. MIA — Lynch appears to be ready to play this week after being carted off the field last week against Jacksonville with an injured shoulder. However, I suspect that the injury will limit his carries and he is facing a tough Miami Dolphins run defense that ranks 11^th in the NFL. Sit Em’. Projection: 30 Yards Rushing, 3 Receptions, 25 Yards

Jamal Lewis —CLE vs. CIN —Lewis has not been effective this year and has just 460 yards with no touchdowns. That may be because they haven’t had a passing game, but either way, now isn’t the time to start using him (or any Cleveland Browns player), especially against the second ranked run defense of the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed just four rushing touchdowns all year. Must Sit Em’. Projection: 40 Yards Rushing

WR Obvious Must Starts

Randy Moss —NE vs. NO — Projection: 7 Receptions, 100 Yards, 1 TD

Wes Welker —NE vs. NO — Projection: 12 Receptions, 110 Yards, 1 TD

Larry Fitzgerald —ARI vs. TEN —Projection: 8 Receptions, 105 Yards, 1 TD

Anquan Boldin —ARI vs. TEN — Projection: 7 Receptions, 100 Yards, 1 TD

Reggie Wayne —IND vs. HOU —Projection: 9 Receptions, 100 Yards, 1 TD

Andre Johnson —HOU vs. IND — Projection: 8 Receptions, 80 Yards, 1 TD

Roddy White —ATL vs. TB —Projection: 5 Receptions, 85 Yards, 1 TD

Marques Colston —NO vs. NE —Projection: 6 Receptions, 80 Yards, 1 TD

WR Start Em’

Chad Ochocinco —CIN vs. CLE —Ocho Cinco has returned to the All-Pro Wide Receiver that we all remember this year, catching 50 passes for 735 yards and five touchdowns. However, he has hit a bit of a slump recently, with just 11 receptions for 162 yards in his last three games. This week should be just what the fantasy doctor ordered, as he plays the 26th ranked pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, who gave up two touchdowns Ochocinco in week four and has torched for over 1000 yards and 11 touchdowns in his career. Start Em’. Projection: 8 Receptions, 115 Yards, 1 TD

Vincent Jackson —SD vs. KC — Although Jackson has just five receptions for 66 yards in his last two games, you still have to start him this week against the 28th ranked pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, whom he torched for five receptions, 142 yards, and a touchdown in week seven. Start Em’. Projection: 6 Receptions, 120 Yards, 1 TD

T.J. Houshmandzadeh —SEA vs. STL — We all thought that T.J. was finally coming out of a season long slump in week 10, when he caught nine passes for 165 yards against Arizona. However, he caught just four balls for 36 yards last week against Minnesota. Housh has been incredibly inconsistent this year, but I think he has one of those days against the 24th ranked pass defense of the St. Louis Rams, who have allowed 15 passing touchdowns this year. Start Em’. Projection: 8 Receptions, 80 Yards, 1 TD

Kenny Britt —TEN vs. ARI — Britt appears to be clicking with Vince Young, catching six balls for 97 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. This week, he faces the 27th ranked pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals and he could surprise some people. Sleeper Start Em’. Projection: 4 Receptions, 50 Yards, 1 TD

WR Sit Em’

Braylon Edwards —NYJ vs. CAR —Edwards has just four receptions for 89 yards in the past two weeks and the Jets will probably be running the ball this week against the 26^th ranked run defense of the Carolina Panthers, who rank fourth against the Pass. Sit Em’. Projection: 3 Receptions, 35 Yards

Santana Moss —WAS vs. PHI — The Redskins offense has been a mess this year and Moss has suffered as well. He has just 12 receptions for 93 yards over the last three games and faces the ninth ranked Philadelphia Eagles pass defense this week, the same Defense that held him to six receptions for 74 yards in week seven. Sit Em’. Projection: 4 Receptions, 40 Yards

Chris Chambers —KC vs. SD —When the Chargers released Chambers, everyone thought it was because he was washed up. However, the Chiefs signed him and he has rewarded them with 10 receptions for 249 yards and two touchdowns in three games. However, this week he faces his former team and who would know how to shut him down better than his former coaches? Especially since the Chargers rank 11th in pass defense. Sit Em’. Projections: 4 Receptions, 40 Yards

Bernard Berrian —MIN vs. CHI —Berrian was supposed to be the Vikings number one receiver when the season started. However, he was injured and has now been reduced to the third or fourth option behind Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, and Visanthe Shiancoe. He has just eight receptions for 80 yards and two touchdowns in the last three games, and I don’t see any success against his former team, the Chicago Bears and their eighth ranked pass defense. Must Sit Em’. Projection: 3 Receptions, 30 Yards

TE Obvious Must Starts

Antonio Gates —SD vs. DEN —Projection: 6 Receptions, 60 Yards, 1 TD

Tony Gonzalez —ATL vs. NYG —Projection: 7 Receptions, 75 Yards, 1 TD

Vernon Davis —SF vs. JAX — Projection: 7 Receptions, 80 Yards, 1 TD

Dallas Clark —IND vs. BAL —Projection: 7 Receptions, 75 Yards, 1 TD

TE Start Em’

Kellen Winslow —TB vs. ATL — The Falcons rank 29th vs. the pass and rookie QB Josh Freeman has relied heavily on his veteran Tight End, who has 16 receptions for 188 yards and a touchdown in the last three games. Expect that to continue this week. Start Em’. Projection: 6 Receptions, 55 Yards, 1 TD

Greg Olsen —CHI vs. MIN —After Olsen’s slow start, many people wrote him off as a bust. However, he has responded with 18 receptions for 188 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games. This week, he faces the 21st ranked pass defense of the Minnesota Vikings and QB Jay Cutler should continue to look his way. Start Em’. Projection: 6 Receptions, 50 Yards, 1 TD

Fred Davis – WAS vs. PHI – As much of a mess as the Redskins Offense has been this year, Davis has been a pleasant surprise. He has 23 receptions for 223 yards and a touchdown and eight of those catches and 78 yards and the touchdown came against Philadelphia in week seven. Sleeper Start Em’. Projection: 6 receptions, 60 Yards, 1 TD

TE Sit Em’

Dustin Keller —NYJ vs. CAR — With the Jets running the ball against a weak Carolina run defense, the pass game will be put on the shelf and that means Keller won’t see much thrown his way. Sit Em’. Projection: 3 Receptions, 35 Yards

Heath Miller —PIT vs. BAL —Miller was very good last week, but that was against a weak Kansas City pass defense. This week, he plays the 17th ranked pass defense of the Baltimore Ravens and he usually doesn’t fair well against them, averaging less than three receptions and 20 yards in his last six games against them. Sit Em’. Projection: 2 Receptions, 20 Yards

Ben Watson —NE vs. NO —Even though this game will be a shootout, I don’t see Watson becoming too involved in the game plan. He has just five receptions for 85 yards in his last three games and New Orleans usually keeps the opposing Tight End in check. Plus, he has a back injury that may keep him out of the game all together. Must Sit Em’. Projection: 2 Receptions, 20 Yards

D/ST Start Em’

Cincinnati Bengals vs. CLE —Aside from last week, Cleveland’s Offense has been horrendous this year and the Bengals much improved Defense should feast on them this week. Start Em’.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. WAS —The Eagles forced four fumbles and had an interception for a touchdown in their week seven matchup against the Redskins. This week should be much of the same, especially with Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts, and Chris Cooley hurt. Start Em’.

San Diego Chargers vs. KC —The Chargers held the Chiefs to seven points in their week seven game, sacking Matt Cassel five times and picking him off three times. I expect much of the same this week. Start Em’.

D/ST Sit Em’

New England Patriots vs. NO —This game will be a complete shootout with two of the best Quarterbacks in the game and two of the best Offenses in the game facing off. Sit Em’.

New Orleans Saints vs. NE —The same reason as why you don’t start the Patriots D this week. Sit Em’.

Tennessee Titans vs. ARI —Kurt Warner has thrown nine touchdowns without throwing an interception over the last three games and the Cardinals Offense has put up an average of 31 points per game in those three games. Not good news for the Titans fantasy owners. Sit Em’.

There you have it Sports Fans. Any questions or concerns, please email me at Derek@Sportmeisters.com and don’t forget to join me for my weekly Sunday Morning Start Em’/Sit Em’ Chat from 10:45am to 12:45pm. Go to www.Sportmeisters.com for more info.

Read more NFL Predictions news on BleacherReport.com

Why Charlie Frye Won't See the Field In Oakland

Ramone Brown — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 22:53:42 -0500

There is clearly a production problem with the QB position in Oakland. First JaMarcus Russell completely bombed the first half of the season with a 51.6 completion rate and nine interceptions this season.

He was then replaced by Bruce Gradkowski who gave us very similar results mis-firing just as badly with a 52.2 completion rate, three INTs, and three fumbles this season. Aside from the 0.6 percent completion rate improvement, Gradkowski's performance is nearly identical to Russell's. Gradkowski over-threw receives, mis-read defense, and was unable to recognize open receivers.

With results like that many are calling for the Raiders third QB Charlie Frye. And it isn't completely un- warranted as Frye has the highest career completion rate of the three Raider QBs: Gradkowski 52.8, Russell 51.6, and Frye 62.0. With Frye's completion percentage exceeding the other two QBs by 10 percent it is a wonder why he hasn't seen the field. Frye not only has the higher completion rate, but has more career yards than Gradkowski, and the most NFL experience.

The reason Frye hasn't seen the field is because favorites are being played with the QBs in Oakland.

First off, Bruce Gradkowski. He was coached by Raiders QB coach Hackett while in Tampa, and Hackett was the one who pushed for the Raiders to bring in both Gradkowski and Jeff Garcia, Hacketts two former pupils. Because of there past in Tampa Bay it is clear that Hackett favors Gradkowski.

Then there is JaMarcus Russell. To fully understand this you have to go back to accusations made that Al Davis is racist. A Tim Brown quote was mis-understood where he basically said Al Davis doesn't like black players from Notre Dame because they rely on their education or smarts rather than pure physical ability.

No way am I saying that Davis is racist. What I am saying is he prefers black athletes who rely on their physical abilities over there brains.

Clearly JaMarcus Russell fits well into what Al Davis wants in his black athletes. Russell is one of, if not the, strongest armed QBs the NFL has seen. Also when Russell was drafted he was very athletic for his size, and fit perfectly in the Al Davis height-weight-speed mold.

Not only that, but Russell isn't seen as the most mentally gifted QB in the league as many have questioned his intelligence.

A QB who made it through college purely on physical ability, and isn't a big thinker. If the Tim Brown quote is true what else would Al Davis want in a QB.

Then there is Charlie Frye. Barring injury he likely won't see any action this year simply because the other two QBs are favored. The only thing he has going for him is being Al Davis's second favorite QB as Davis granted Frye an audience prior to signing him.

Read more NFL Predictions news on BleacherReport.com

Spread 'Em: Week 12 NFL Picks

Andrew Zercie — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 21:39:30 -0500

Off to a solid 2-1 start for week 12, thanks to the Packers and Broncos, I’m hoping to see that success continue into the rest of the weekend. It’s been a while since I’ve scored a big week I must admit. Following an 8-8 week 11 showing, and the 2-1 start to this week, my record on the season is now 93-70, which isn’t bad. However, after starting off hot, I’ve essentially been a 50-50 bettor in the last month or so.

For those who might be interested, here are my picks for Thursday’s games.

Also, since I didn't post these at Bleacher Report last week, here are my picks for week 11 , for those who might be interested:

As always, remember the picks are for entertainment purposes only. Here’s the remainder of week 12 now:

Houston (+3.5) over Indianapolis

The Texans are talented enough to knock off the Colts. They are also maddeningly inconsistent and highly untrustworthy, if you’re planning on gambling on them.

When these teams played each other three weeks ago, the Texans had the Colts on the ropes, but between penalties and turnovers, Houston sabotaged their chances of pulling off the upset.

Knowing the Texans, it’s more likely they’ll find a way to lose than pull out the win. Their season has been littered with close calls. Four of their five losses have been by a touchdown or less. I’m betting on them to cover, nothing more.

Colts 24, Texans 21

Cleveland (+14) over Cincinnati

I suppose the Bengals were due for a clunker. Cedric Benson was unavailable for last week’s stinker against the Raiders, and that played a huge role in the outcome of the game.

In fact, the Bengals’ fortunes have been tied directly to how Benson has played. In Cincinnati’s eight wins, Benson has averaged over four yards per carry. In the Bengals’ other two losses, Benson was under four yards per carry. That seems to be Cincinnati’s barometer for success.

Of course, that may not matter much against the Browns, who are among the worst teams in the league and lost a heart-breaker last week to the Lions. Still, assuming Benson plays hurt and the Browns follow up last week’s performance with another strong game, I see Cleveland covering here.

Bengals 27, Browns 17

Minnesota (-11) over Chicago

Remember at the beginning of the season, when the Bears were going to contend for the NFC North title? Jay Cutler’s been one of the big culprits in the Bears’ lost season but, at the same time, Matt Forte’s disappearance and some key injuries haven’t helped matters.

Chicago’s road woes will definitely continue this week. The Bears are 1-4 on the road, and Cutler’s interception issues are at their worst away from Soldier Field.

The Vikings have played dominant football lately, and Brett Favre has become part of the story instead of hogging the headlines. Some believe the Vikings are the best team in the NFL. While I’m not that much of a believer in them, this should be a relatively easy win for them.

Vikings 31, Bears 17

Philadelphia (-9) over Washington

Washington is down to their third string running back (Rock Cartwright), and their offense is limited already to begin with. The Redskins will need to throw the ball in order to score points, something they’ve been unable to do all season.

The Eagles will be without Brian Westbrook as well, but LeSean McCoy has proven to be a capable fill-in.

It will be interesting to see if the Eagles’ wide receivers can make some big plays against a Redskins’ passing defense that has allowed fewer than 200 yards passing on average. If DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin can break free for some big gains, this game will be a blowout, because the Redskins are unlikely to match the Eagles’ firepower on offense.

Eagles 27, Redskins 9

Miami (-3) over Buffalo

The Dolphins have rallied from an 0-3 start to 5-5 on the season, and a win over the Bills would put them squarely in the playoff picture in the AFC.

The Bills have become a train wreck. The once-proud franchise is on their second coach of the season, has an unsettled quarterback situation, and has basically become irrelevant on the NFL landscape.

I doubted the Dolphins last week, after they lost Ronnie Brown for the season. I won’t make the same mistake this week.

Dolphins 28, Bills 17

Tennessee (-2.5) over Arizona

The Vince Young Comeback Tour is so amazing, even referees can’t stop themselves from getting swept up in the euphoria, as evidenced by the picture above.

The Cardinals’ run defense will get a challenge from Titans’ RB Chris Johnson, who has an outside shot at a 2,000 yard season. The game will come down to how well Arizona can contain Johnson. If Johnson and the Titans can sustain long drives and keep the Cardinals’ offense off the field, they’ll win.

As great as Arizona has been against the run, and as great as they’ve played on the road this year, it seems that the Titans have momentum, along with Johnson and a rejuvenated Young, on their side. I’m not betting against them here.

Titans 27, Cardinals 21

St. Louis (+3) over Seattle

It appears Mike Holmgren knew what he was doing when he walked away from the Seattle Seahawks after last season. With each passing week, it seems the Seahawks get worse. In the final game of a three-game road swing, the Seahawks get their best shot at their first win away from Seattle all season (they’re 0-5 thus far).

Of course, this matchup represents the best chance for the Rams to win a home game this season. Additionally, the Rams haven’t beaten the Seahawks since a January 2005 playoff game in Seattle. Since then, St. Louis is 0-9 against the Seahawks.

The best player on either team is the Rams’ Stephen Jackson, and Seattle hasn’t done well against the run for much of the season. I’ll bet on Jackson and the Rams to come out on top this week.

Rams 17, Seahawks 14

Atlanta (-12) over Tampa Bay

Sure, Atlanta’s lost four of their last five, but the Falcons are 4-0 at home. Beginning with this week’s game against the Buccaneers, Atlanta begins a crucial three-game homestand. This is a game the 5-5 Falcons absolutely have to have.

Tampa Bay seems to be the perfect foil for a Falcons team desperate for a win. The Buccaneers are a team building for the future and they start a rookie at quarterback. I view this as an opportunity for the Falcons to get back on track. They need it, if they view themselves as a serious playoff contender.

Falcons 31, Buccaneers 13

Carolina (+3) over NY Jets

This game features two 4-6 teams with turnover-prone quarterbacks and offenses built around strong running games.

I hate picking the Panthers, but I believe in the Jets even less. They have lost six of their last seven and seem to be in a tailspin. There is no safe pick here, but the Panthers have the veteran quarterback and coach, while the Jets have rookies in both spots. Perhaps that will make a difference in the outcome.

Panthers 24, Jets 13

Jacksonville (+3) over San Francisco

The Jaguars and 49ers are teams that play close games, for the most part, and the spread reflects that. It also reflects the Jags’ penchant for playing down to their competition lately; they’ve beaten the Bills, Chiefs and Jets respectively by a combined eight points over the last three weeks.

The 49ers have the necessary ingredients to beat the Jaguars. They run the ball well and play solid defense against the run.

I’m surprised the Jaguars are 6-4 and in the mix for a wildcard berth in the AFC at this point. They’ve survived against some awful teams in the last few weeks, and I’m betting this week, on the road, 3,000 miles from home, all the close calls catch up to them. However, as is the nature of these two teams, I’m expecting yet another tight game.

49ers 21, Jaguars 20

Kansas City (+13.5) over San Diego

After a week filled with stories of how the Chargers have regained their mojo, and how the Broncos have collapsed yet again, San Diego goes home to take on the Chiefs.

There is no doubt that the Chargers are hot, having won five straight. Still, they don’t run the ball well, and San Diego was lucky to eek out wins against the Giants and Raiders during their hot streak. I’m not sold on them as a two-touchdown favorite against anyone.

Divisional games go beyond the gambling point spread sometimes. The Chiefs have won two straight themselves, including a surprising, and rousing, win over the Steelers last week. They won’t win this game, but they’ll put up more of a fight than many think.

Chargers 27, Chiefs 17

Baltimore (-2.5) over Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger wants to play against the Ravens, despite suffering a concussion last week. The Steelers, sitting at 6-4, need Roethlisberger to play in this, the first of two matchups against the Ravens this season.

Baltimore, at 5-5, need this game to draw even in the standings with Pittsburgh and push themselves back in the playoff picture. When it gets this deep into the season, most often than not the desperate team wins. The Ravens are at home and are desperate. Enough said.

Ravens 24, Steelers 18

Monday Night

New England (+2.5) over New Orleans

The Patriots and Saints are similarly explosive on offense. Many are predicting a shootout in this one.

In fact, viewers could see a game similar to the one played two weeks ago between the Patriots and Colts, in which Bill Belichick made his controversial decision to try for a first down on a 4th-and-2 at their 28 yard line. When that failed, the Colts drove for the winning touchdown.

Their recent close calls against teams such as the Rams and Panthers lead me to believe the Saints are ripe to suffer their first loss.

Patriots 34, Saints 31

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Breaking Down the AFC Wild Card Race: Tennessee Titans Style

Richard Langford — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 06:23:28 -0500

The Tennessee Titans are in the midst of a turnaround that, in NFL terms, is unprecedented—they are the first team in league history to win four straight games following consecutive losses in the first six.

The streak has revived playoff hopes in Nashville. Hopes that approached terminal levels after the third week and were pronounced dead after the fifth.

Let’s take a look exactly how realistic these playoff hopes are.

I think it is safe to assume that trailing the Colts by six games with six to go rules out a division title. This leaves the Titans' playoff hopes riding in their ability to secure one of the two AFC Wild Card berths amongst some heavy competition within the conference.

We are going to concede division championships to the Patriots and the aforementioned Colts.

The Chargers currently have a one-game lead in the AFC West over the Broncos, but with the Broncos imploding at a magnificent rate and suffering a sweep to San Diego, I am going to concede this division to the Chargers.

The AFC North is another story—the Bengals are in the driver’s seat, thanks in large part to a season sweep of the Steelers and Ravens. The Bengals also have a favorable remaining schedule. Four of their six games are against teams with losing records. Chalk up the AFC North to the Bengals (I can’t believe I just typed that).

This leaves the Titans looking up at six teams to get one of the two spots. Let’s take a look at how the rest of the season is going to play out for these teams.

Author’s note: If you wish to be surprised at the final season outcome of any of the following teams—the Broncos, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Jaguars, Dolphins, or Titans—please discontinue reading.

Denver Broncos 6-4

As was mentioned, the Broncos are falling apart and are doing it exactly as fast as the Titans are coming together. After winning their first six games, they have lost their last four and have looked bad doing so.

The Broncos have three games left against teams with a losing record: two with Kansas City and one at home against Oakland. Two wins out of these three seems reasonable.

They will play host to the Colts and the Eagles while traveling to New York to play the Giants. All of which are looking like losses. Cross the Broncos off the list.

Broncos: 8-8

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are lucky to be 6-4. They are an up-and-down team that plays better at home but seems to be living in a house of cards.

They play two of the division leaders—on the road against the Patriots and at home vs. the Colts. There is no reason to think the Jaguars will win either of these. Let’s mark those down as losses.

Their other four games find them hosting two other AFC wild card hopefuls—the Dolphins and Texans—while they will also travel to play the 49ers and Browns.

They are looking at a split in these four. I say they win one of the home games and manage to lose one of the road games, likely to the 49ers.

Jaguars: 8-8

Miami Dolphins 5-5

The Dolphins are an interesting team. They have a below-average quarterback and wide receivers. They lost the player many believed to be their best, Ronnie Brown, and it didn’t seem to matter. Give a team a good offensive line and a solid defense and that team has a shot.

The Dolphins have one game remaining against the division leaders, when they host the Patriots. This is a loss.

The Dolphins also travel to Tennessee in a game that the Titans must win, and, since this entire article would be an exercise in futility if the Titans lose it, mark up another loss for the Dolphins.

This leaves four games for the Dolphins. They will host the Steelers and the Texans while traveling to take on the Bills and the Jaguars. To get to nine wins, the Dolphins would have to win all of these—a scenario that is hard to envision, but a 2-2 split is not.

Dolphins 7-9

Houston Texans 5-5

Houston has two games remaining against the division leaders. They host the Colts and the Patriots. Expectations of a Texan sweep in these two games would be foolhardy—while a split is possible, getting swept is more likely.

They travel to the play the Jaguars, Rams, and Dolphins and will host the Seahawks. A split here is the likely scenario, but it is not too big of a stretch to think they will win three of these. Balance out this possibility with them pulling an upset against the Patriots or Colts, and you get...

Texans: 9-7

This leaves us with the defending AFC championship game participants: the Ravens and the Steelers. Two teams whose fates will largely be determined by their two remaining head-to-head matchups. Only not really—since they will split them.

Pittsburgh Steelers 6-4

The Steelers split with the Ravens.

The remaining four games find the Steelers hosting the Raiders and the Packers while traveling to battle the Dolphins and the Browns. They will likely be favored in all four of these games—I say they win three of the four.

Steelers: 10-6

Baltimore Ravens 5-5

The Ravens split with the Steelers.

The remaining schedule has the Ravens hosting the Lions and the Bears and traveling to take on the Packers and Raiders.

It is not too big of stretch to say they will win all four of theses (they really don’t have a bad loss this season); however, I say the Ravens win three of four. After all, isn’t every AFC North team required to have at least one bad loss to an AFC West team?

Ravens: 9-7

So where does this leave the Titans? Well, they will have to get to nine wins in order to have a shot at the playoffs and then hope the tiebreakers go their way against the Ravens and Texans.

For those of you who do not like math, let me do it for you. This means the Titans can only afford three more losses. (Wait...that’s not right—damn, I hate math. Why did I volunteer to do this?) Upon further review, the Titans can only afford to lose one more game.

Is it possible? You bet your sweet ass it is. Let’s take a look.

The Titans have two games against teams with losing records and one team we already decided they would beat. They go on the road to take on Seahawks while hosting the Rams and the Dolphins. Three wins.

The rest of the schedule finds them hosting the Cardinals and Chargers while traveling to take on the Colts.

Let’s take a more in-depth look at those matchups since this is where the Titans' playoffs hopes will live or die.

The Arizona Cardinals, Nov. 29 at LP Field

When looking at the numbers on the season, the Cardinals' team strengths are their passing offense and their rushing defense—a combination that would appear deadly for the Titans.

The Titans are ranked first in rushing yards gained per game and 31st in passing yards allowed per game.

Over the last four games, these numbers have switched drastically for both teams.

In that span the Cardinals have allowed 5.9 yards per rushing attempt, which would rank them last in the league by a mile. The Titans, meanwhile, are surrendering 5.7 yards per pass attempt, which would rank them second on the season.

Combine this with the fact that Kurt Warner’s playing status for next week’s game is up in the air and they have a comfortable division lead and you get:

A win for the Titans

The Indianapolis Cots, Dec. 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium

The Colts had their way with the Titans in their first matchup this season. The Colts held Chris Johnson to his fewest yards on his fewest carries of the season. He also equaled his lowest yards per attempt of the season.

Peyton Manning carved up the Titans pass defense, going 36-for-44 with 309 yards. This will be a good barometer for the improved Titan pass D.

This is undoubtedly the toughest test of their season. OK, that probably didn’t need to be said since they are playing an undefeated team on the road:

A tough loss for the Titans

The San Diego Chargers, Dec. 25 at LP Field

The Chargers are a team that seems to be playing better as the season goes on. They currently have a healthy offensive line and backfield, which is helping balance an offense that was pass heavy early in the season.

The Chargers are ranked 13th in the league in yards allowed per rush and 16th in yards per pass attempt. Numbers that suggest the Titans have a shot.

This game is on a Friday and short rest provides a greater advantage for the Titans, who are the home team. The Chargers have shown that they can be out-physicalled* in a game. The Titans will need to take the fight to the Chargers, and they will.

This game is going to mean more for the Titans than the Chargers. The Chargers will be playing for positioning and the Titans for their lives. The Titans are going to hit the Chargers in the mouth, which will help the Chargers decide that they can stand a late season loss in this one:

Titans’ victory.

*I know "physicalled" is officially not a word, but it should be.

This will leave the Titans at 9-7 and tied with the Texans and Ravens for the final AFC playoff spot.

Let’s look at the tiebreakers to see who will continue to play...On second thought, I will leave some mystery to unfold with the season...for now.

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