Bleacher Report - MLB Trade Rumors

The Next Few Years: Lean (but There Is a Light On The Horizon)

Mark Dewdney — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 11:55:33 -0500

There are a few impending events that will affect the Toronto Blue Jays and, therefore, us fans.

I'd like to present some crystal ball musings - since these events don't really seem connected, some "big-picture" tying together is needed.

First, Roy Halladay is going to either the Yankees or Red Sox.

Notice I didn't qualify this statement: If someone (like the Angels or Dodgers) is going to win the Doc, then there is going to have to be an offer made that's so monumental that NOBODY could have predicted it.

If that happens, a whole lot of know-nothing posters on SportsNet and TSN are going to be "vindicated." You should see some of the utterly fantastic/ridiculous trades dreamed up by some of those "GMs." If that happens, this whole column is invalidated.

So, you see that I'm definite about the Yankees likely outbidding the Red Sox. Why? One reason: The Steinbrenners are back in harness.

It's a congenital character defect. The Steinbrenners do NOT lose - especially to the Sox.

Those two Bahstahn championships are gaping wounds to the soul of Yankee nation, and only by continuing the newly rediscovered winning tradition, by being the undisputed best team in baseball, can the denizens of the Bronx feel secure.

Accordingly, since the Red Sox have now clearly entered the race for Halladay, the Blue Jays now stand the greatest chance of a legitimate shot at the playoffs they've had in a decade-plus.

"WHAT?"

You heard right. Coupled with my next observation, beating the Big Boys of the AL East is now visible - and on the not-so-distant horizon, too.

With the Big Boys falling all over each other to keep the other guy from getting Doc, we come out of this with multiple players - good, legitimate players, franchise cornerstones to compliment Hill and our young pitchers - and we get a GM that looks like a genius (especially by comparison with the last guy).

Players came here because of Pat Gillick, and they will come here because of Alex Anthopoulous.

That's not unimportant. Nobody was going to come to Toronto while Ricciardi was abusing and upsetting players. He had a perception that he was ruining the club. Would you have signed with the Blue Jays in the last decade? You'd have to have been blind, which, incidentally, is what Halladay, Wells, and others are thinking when they look in the mirror.

The player package that comes in, along with our newfound reputation (just watch - it'll be on the rise in 2010, 2011 and, come 2012, we'll be a respectable destination) will rebuild the happy factor around SkyDome.

The second event: Bud Selig is now a lame duck Commissioner - not that he had both wings about him previously - who is leaving in 2012.

This should be an excuse for an MLB-wide party as it is. King Bud's lack of vision and lack of spine has done its best to ruin our sport over the last decade—coinciding with the fall of the Jays' empire.

With Selig leaving, MLB owners will have no choice but to search for an outside candidate - and they will see the silver lining here, as only an outsider can lend credence back to our sport; a fresh start, unbiased rulings, and a dollop of courage will go a long way towards killing off the steroid scandal and establishing a meaningful salary cap.

Let's face it. The current financial picture shows a "system" that had, and still has, no idea how to level the field. The luxury tax was just that, a tax that didn't possess enough financial teeth to stop a Steinbrenner; they've got so much money that, even if they had to pay double their payroll as a tax, they'd just grumble, build another big boat, and sign the cheque.

With Bud vacating the seat for sure - he says that there are too many things he wants to do before getting old, to which I distinctly heard a snort or two thousand in 2012 - that clears the way and forces MLB's hand into getting a true commissioner with a true Plan (capitalized as it should be).

Baseball doesn't really need saving. Any sport that can survive all the cheating, lying, and general incompetence that have plagued every year for the past decade and a half can't be killed - Expos fans might have something to say there.

What baseball can do is to resume its upward climb into the history books, and this offers MLB the reprive it needs, from itself.

The owners have proven themselves unworthy, and you might think that three years notice is plenty enough to position a new stooge in the Office of the Commissioner, but in reality, it's a no-excuse warning to MLB that they'd better use these three years productively.

With three years notice, if MLB fails to come up with the next Peter Ueberroth, the next Bart Giamatti (I can dream, can't I?) or even just the next Fay Vincent, then the owners will be roasted on a spit - and then the sport will be facing quite the uncertain future.

Much as I hate the NHL's Gary Bettman (doesn't every hockey fan?), he's been good for the sport and able to both stand up to and unify the sport's owners.

David Stern wasn't half-bad as NBA commissioner, though he was more lucky than good and had the best timing, and the NFL has seen some very good years under Paul Tagliabue and now Roger Goodell despite a serious recession.

It's time for us to find the guy or gal that we can charge with rebuilding the continent's most valuable sport of the nation. If the NFL is the heart of America, baseball is both our soul and brain and needs a serious father figure to reassure us all.

(And yes, Canada becomes part of America when discussing things like baseball. There ain't no borders with this one. Want to keep your team, Toronto? Then we're at least North American. "Us vs. Them" is no longer viable.)

Some parts of baseball need to be sent to their room, and some parts need to be patted on the head, put on an allowance, and told, "You'll be all right."

That chance comes in 2012, when we can pat Bud on the fanny and send him to the showers—and, not coincidentally, about the time that a package o'prospects, having arrived from either Boston or New York, will have blossomed - hopefully just in time to convince Aaron Hill, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, David Purcey, etc., etc. that they should re-sign and stay here in Toronto...

...because there's hope here now.

Baseball fans have to take the long view. Patience is the yarn of the tapestry of this game, isn't it?

Might take a few years, but there's hope here. A salary cap, arriving at the same time as a passel of good young guys?

I'm excited.

You should be too.

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If Josh Johnson Is Available, Should the Chicago Cubs Call Florida?

TAB BAMFORD — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 21:04:12 -0500

He won't turn 26 until January, but Josh Johnson might be one of the better pitchers to become available this winter.

Johnson stands to receive a substantial raise from his 2009 salary of $1.4 million after posting a 15-5 record with 191 strikeouts in 209 innings pitched. Standing 6-7 and weighing 240 pounds, Johnson is physically intimidating and backs it up with phenomenal stuff.

Because of the potential raise he'll get in arbitration this year, there have been rumors that the Marlins will look to deal their young ace either this winter or early in the 2010 season. If Johnson is on the market, either now or in the future, the Chicago Cubs should be all over him like stink on poop.

He doesn't have an enormous track record, but has been good when regularly in the majors. He has a career 34-16 record after breaking into the bigs in 2006.

The Marlins have a track record of dealing young studs when the arbitration clock kicks in. After 2005, they dealt a 25-year old ace, Josh Beckett, to Boston. At that point in his career, Beckett had a very similar resume to that of Johnson, both in statistics and hype.

In exchange for Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota, the Red Sox paid a heavy price: a package of four prospects including then-baby shortstop Hanley Ramirez.

But the Sox brought in a consistent third baseman, a top-of-the-rotation starter, and a headcase reliever for one uber prospect and three nice pieces. Anibel Sanchez would be the next-best player in that deal, and he hasn't developed into a superstar.

The Cubs have a length track record of dealing with the Marlins this decade.

In March of 2002, the Cubs dealt four players including Julian Tavarez and an unknown minor league lefty named Dontrelle Willis to the Marlins for Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca. While Alfonseca became as much of an urban legend as he did closer in Chicago, Clement had a few nice seasons for the Cubs.

In November of 2003, the Cubs dealt Hee Seop Choi to Florida for Derrek Lee, who had just been part of the Cubs' heartbreaking loss in the National League Championship Series. Obviously that deal was a huge win for the Cubs.

The Marlins got theirs in December of 2005, though, when the Cubs dealt Sergio Mitre, Renyel Pinto and the Marlins' 2009 Opening Day Starter, Ricky Nolasco, to the Marlins for Juan Pierre.

Jim Hendry probably regrets that deal right now, as Nolasco has blossomed into a good young starter.

Then last winter, the Cubs sent arguably their top pitching prospect, Jose Ceda, to Miami in exchange for should-be closer Kevin Gregg. Gregg was a failure in his one season in Chicago and shouldn't be back in 2010; the Cubs have until December 1 to offer him arbitration.

Should the next deal in this ongoing relationship be for Johnson?

There have been floating rumors that the Cubs won't part ways with young uber prospect Starlin Castro in a deal for an established major leaguer, including Toronto's Roy Halladay. This should make dealing with the Marlins even more enticing, because they already have Ramirez at short.

The Marlins have had pretty good luck with former-Cubs pitching prospects like Willis and Nolasco, though. Perhaps Jay Jackson and/or Jeff Samardzija could centerpiece a deal including a potential first baseman, Jake Fox, and outfield depth in Tyler Colvin.

The Marlins are also supposedly shopping their second baseman, Dan Uggla, so 2009 National League Rookie of the Year Chris Coughlin can move to his natural position. Throwing an outfielder like Colvin and a hitter like Fox into the deal might be sweet enough for the Marlins to bite.

After all, they stole a top pitching prospect, Ceda, for garbage, Gregg, last winter.

I'm not proposing the Cubs trade for Uggla, but Johnson should be at the top of the Cubs' list of trade possibilities if they can add the big right-hander. If the Marlins history is consistent, though, the Cubs sucking up Uggla as part of the deal (like the Red Sox taking Lowell's contract in the Beckett trade) wouldn't be a terrible idea.

But, again, this piece isn't centered around Uggla. I'm advocating the Cubs making a strong play to deal for Johnson to bring some youth and a big arm to their rotation for 2010 and beyond.

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Come To Think Of It: Will Red Sox Have Happy Hollidays Or Halladays?

Bob Warja — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:30:28 -0500

Matt Holliday...Roy Halladay...this offseason is so damn confusing. But we know one thing - both players are available and at least one will sign a huge deal this off-season. Will one of the teams that bites be the Red Sox?

Look, with apologies to Jason Bay and John Lackey, Matt Holliday is the best free agent on the market. Lackey is good, to be sure, but he's the best starting pitcher in a weak market.

Meanwhile, the only question surrounding Holliday is which player will show up for the team that signs him? The one in Oakland who seemed to further the idea that Matt was simply a product of the thin air in Denver, or the guy in St. Louis that destroyed NL pitching?

We do know that Holliday is better defensively than Bay, and we also recognize that he is represented by uber agent Scott Boras, so he will command a bigger contract for his services.

Still, the Red Sox, among others, are said to be interested in Holliday. Or is that Halladay? I told you this is confusing.

There are almost equal reports that the Sox are aggressively pursuing Doc from the Blue Jays, though I would think the key to any deal would be a contract extension.

If Doc was only a one year rental, the Jays know they wouldn't get as much for him. But if they allow a window for a team like the Sox to negotiate an extension with the star pitcher, well, that's a different story my friend.

For it's clear the Sox need starting pitching. Tim Wakefield is 44 years old. Dice K is coming off of injury and poor performance. Clay Buchholz is unproven.

Of course, Buchholz is likely to go as part of any package used to acquire Halladay. But in the AL East, you simply can't afford to stand pat, you have to take chances.

What would it take to sign Holliday? Try seven years and $126 million dollars perhaps. I don't see the Sox going that high.They could just as easily trade for Doc and sign Bay.

And what would it take to extend Halladay? Likely $20 million dollars per year but perhaps over a shorter time period. Let's say, for the sake of argument, four years, $80 million dollars. That may be more appealing to Theo Epstein.

I don't think any of this is going to materialize quickly. Still, it is the holidays. Or do I mean the Halladays? I told you this stuff was confusing, come to think of it.

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Clay Buchholz For Roy Halladay or Buchholz For a Bat?

Amanda Bruno — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 13:19:00 -0500

It's all over the Internet: the Boston Red Sox are making a huge push for Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay.

Last July was only the beginning of the trade talks that could land him in either a Boston or New York Yankees uniform.

Toronto knows that Halladay doesn't want to return after his contract is up in 2010, so why not get some value from him?

The New York Daily News is reporting that in order to land Halladay, the Sox have to part with Clay Buchholz and pitcher/shortstop Casey Kelly, who signed with the Sox in 2008 after being recruited by Tennessee to play quarterback.

So pretty much it's switching Buchholz for Halladay in the rotation. No offense, but what does that really solve?

Halladay, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Tim Wakefield would become the new starting five, but with Wakefield's history of back problems, is it really smart to get rid of a kid who just proved himself during the postseason (Yes, we all remember the outcome of Game Three of the ALDS, but it wasn't Buchholz' fault.)?

Obviously it's Halladay for a 25-year-old who needs to show his true potential every time he goes out to the mound. Plus, Buchholz just got married, and I don't need to explain that.

There is Michael Bowden, but who knows if he'd have to be included in the deal, as well?

Bob Ryan and Charlie Pierce debate the topic of trading Buchholz on The Globe 10.0, but talk about giving him up for another bat. Pierce says no on Miguel Cabrera and Dan Uggla, but yes for Adrian Gonzalez.

Should the Sox trade Buchholz for Halladay or another bat?

What do you think?

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Boston Red Sox Fantasy Retrospective

Jonathan Williams — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 09:58:25 -0500

Last offseason, the Red Sox made a concerted effort to bolster their offense by signing Mark Teixeira. There were also several rumors of them attempting to trade for various offensive stars. They also seemed determined to upgrade their captain Jason Varitek with a younger, more offensively oriented catcher.

They pretty much failed in every effort.

However, the team projected as stacked, and there were few public concerns.

Then David Ortiz, the heart of the Sox lineup began the season with a horrendous months-long slump. The Red Sox were still scoring runs but after every loss, fingers were pointed at the offense and the lack thereof from the designated hitter.

Eventually Ortiz did pull out of his slump and had a strong second half, but the doubts remain as he heads into the last guaranteed year of his contract (the club holds a $12.5 million option for 2011).

As David Ortiz slumped, Jason Varitek was as inconsistent as expected from an offensive viewpoint. Lauded as a great leader and fair defensive catcher, Varitek added many intangibles to help the team win.

Nevertheless, the Red Sox wanted offense from the catcher position and got it when they sent several prospects to the Cleveland Indians for Victor Martinez, who will be the starting catcher in 2010.

Varitek will return by virtue of utilizing his player option for $3 million and incentives after the Red Sox passed on using theirs.

The Red Sox run the risk of losing slugging left fielder Jason Bay to free agency—a loss that will be difficult for the Red Sox faithful (a non saber metric inclined crowd to say the least, despite the clear beliefs of the teams management) to understand.

Most analysts believe that signing Bay to the rumored deals that include several years and over $100 million would be a colossal mistake.

Granted, it is a mistake the Red Sox can afford to make. Unlike the rival New York Yankees, the Red Sox have avoided including extra years into contracts as incentives to sign.

But Bay is an aging player (who some describe as a Three True Outcomes type), who is mediocre at best defensively and a perhaps a future designated hitter. Paying full price for Bay seems like something the Theo Epstein Red Sox would never do, but then you hear things.

Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports on the Extra Bases Blog this series of events:

So we're talking to Theo Epstein Monday afternoon and he mentions that restructuring Tim Wakefield's deal will save the Sox $1.5 million on the CBT, which is GM-speak for the payroll luxury tax, or collective bargaining tax.

"That's important because there's some things we want to do this winter and we don't have a ton of room under the CBT," Epstein said.

The tax threshold for 2010 will be $170 million. Are the Red Sox actually planning to approach that? I mean, zowie. They were around $125 million this season. Keeping in mind that is an extremely rough estimate, I have the Red Sox committed to approximately $109 million for next season. That's figuring arbitration raises for Jonathan Papelbon, Jeremy Hermida, Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez and $500,000 each for the assorted 0-3 service-time players.

Let's say they sign Jason Bay for $18 million. So now they're at $127 million. Where is that extra $43 million coming from that Theo seemed concerned about? Are the Red Sox leaving room for Roy Halladay and some other superstar? This is total conjecture, of course, and perhaps Epstein was just musing out loud. But perhaps that was a clue that the Sox are, if nothing else, giving themselves the option to make a huge splash.

It seems impossible that the Red Sox could worry about approaching the tax threshold without planning to devote a substantial amount to re-signing Jason Bay. Maybe they plan to sign Bay and Holliday, then put Bay at designated hitter. That would be out Yankee-ing the Yankees, no doubt.

For much more on the fantasy prospects on the Red Sox, and players such as Jacoby Ellsbury , Jeremy Hermida , and Clay Buchholz - check out Advanced Fantasy Baseball .

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