Bleacher Report - Stanford Football

The Five Questions That Will Be Answered This Week In College Football

Will Ayers Jr. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:30:28 -0500

Outside of the PAC-10, there are not any big games in college football this week. Even the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry is not demanding the attention its commanded in past years, due to a struggling Michigan team. Although your eyes may not be glued to the television Saturday, there are a few story lines that you have to keep your eyes on. Here are the top five questions that will answered this week in college football when its all said and done.

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College Football Weekend: Week 12 Preview and Predictions

Jeff Dillon — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:54:38 -0500

One of the biggest story lines entering the 2009 college football season was whether or not USC was on the verge of an uncharacteristic down year.

The Trojans had lost a significant part of last season’s Rose Bowl team. They would be forced to start plenty of inexperienced players—including a true freshman, Matt Barkley, at quarterback.

After seven straight Pac-10 titles, many wondered aloud whether 2009 would finally see a new champion on the West Coast.

Perhaps it would be Cal’s year, many said. The Oregon Ducks were loaded with talent, others noticed. Some analysts warned that you could never count out Mike Riley’s Oregon State Beavers.

But Stanford? Who saw this coming?

I know I didn’t. I predicted the Cardinal to finish 5-7 overall and seventh in the Pac-10 standings.

Oops.

Perhaps no team in the nation has been a more pleasant surprise in 2009 than Jim Harbaugh’s Cardinal.

Not only has Stanford posted a 7-3 overall record (6-2 in conference) thus far, putting itself squarely in the Pac-10 title hunt, but the Cardinal have put together two of the most impressive wins in all of college football this season.

First came a 51-42 dismantling of a red-hot Oregon team, the team that just a week earlier had undressed USC in impressive fashion.

Then came the Cardinal’s chance at the Trojans in Los Angeles. The result? Maybe the most stunning final score of the season: a Stanford 55-21 shocker at the Coliseum.

Ladies and gentleman, I give you the Cinderella story of the 2009 season: the Stanford Cardinal.

So if you haven’t seen the arm of Andrew Luck yet, take a look. If you haven’t considered Toby Gerhart for the Heisman award yet, better wake up quickly—this guy may be the most underrated player in America.

And if you haven’t seen or heard a Harbaugh press conference yet, you need to check out one of the most quotable coaches in college sports, as well as a guy who will likely make his way to a major college (or pro) job very soon.

If you have just one game to watch this weekend, I highly recommend catching No. 25 California against the 17th-ranked Cardinal. With a Stanford win and an Oregon loss (at Arizona Saturday night), the Cardinal still have a serious shot at a Pac-10 title and a trip to the Rose Bowl.

Their story is as entertaining as it is remarkable—and it’s not done yet.

To week 12...

Five games you can’t miss this weekend

5. Kansas State at Nebraska (Sat. 7:45 EST, ESPN)

Well, this feels like old times again, doesn’t it? K-State and Nebraska battling it out for a trip to the Big 12 championship game. Shoot, even Bill Snyder is coming back for this one. Oh, he’s the head coach in Manhattan again? Guess that makes sense, then.

In all seriousness, K-State’s season has been pretty impressive when you consider where the Wildcats were coming from. Nebraska, on the other hand, has ridden one of the most wild roller coaster rides of any team in the country this season. The Huskers’ playmaking defense will be the difference-maker in this one.

Prediction: Nebraska 23, Kansas State 13

4. Kansas at No. 3 Texas (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC)

While this game has less significance to the Big 12 race than K-State-Nebraska, there still is plenty on the line in Austin this weekend. First, with a Texas win, the Longhorns clinch the Big 12 South and will play the K-State-Nebraska winner for the Big 12 championship in two weeks.

Secondly, and probably more significant, is the fact that Colt McCoy is one win away from becoming the winningest quarterback in NCAA history.

With both of those things on the line, the fact that Texas is averaging 41 points per game in its last four contests, and the added circus surrounding coach Mark Mangino at Kansas this week, you’ve got the makings of a blowout. But an entertaining one.

Prediction: Texas 44, Kansas 17

3. No. 10 Ohio State at Michigan (Sat. 12:00 EST, ABC)

It is wild to think that it’s been just four years since this rivalry matchup was branded the “game of the century.” The 2005 contest had both the Big Ten title and a trip to the BCS championship game on the line. In 2009, the storylines won’t be quite as, shall we say, intriguing.

Nevertheless, it’s still Ohio State-Michigan—and as it is commonly said, you can’t count out anything in a rivalry game. But the Wolverines have lost four straight and seem to be struggling to slow opposing offenses.

For Ohio State, how Terrelle Pryor plays under the pressure of a big game in the Big House will be the key.

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Michigan 23

2. No. 11 Oregon at Arizona (Sat. 8:00 EST, ABC)

This is one of several meaningful games in the weird and wacky Pac-10 this weekend. Oregon can clinch the conference crown with a win in Tucson. But beware of the Wildcats, one of many surprising teams in the league this season. Arizona has its own chance at a Pac-10 title, needing to win its remaining three games to earn a trip to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl.

To win this weekend, the Wildcats have to get back to the strong rushing defense they’ve displayed for most of the season before giving up 176 yards last week to California. If Oregon’s rushing attack gets a chance to break out, the Pac-10 race will be over.

Prediction: Oregon 27, Arizona 24

1. No. 25 California at No. 17 Stanford (Sat. 7:30 EST, Versus)

This game starts just half an hour before Oregon-Arizona, meaning Stanford will still be in the hunt for a Pac-10 title at the time of kickoff. If the Cardinal can build an early lead, you’d have to forgive the players for peeking at the Oregon-Arizona score a few times.

For Stanford to do that, it will need to play better defense than it has the past two weeks. Lost in the huge wins of the past two weeks is the fact that Stanford gave up over 900 yards and 63 points in those contests. But it’s tough to see the Toby Gerhart train slowing down either. Expect lots of points, as well as another Stanford win.

Prediction: Stanford 38, Cal 29

For your viewing pleasure

No. 6 Boise State at Utah State (Fri. 9:30 EST, ESPN2): Boise State 41, Utah State 20

North Carolina at Boston College (Sat. 12:00 EST, ESPN2): UNC 26, BC 21

Minnesota at No. 13 Iowa (Sat. 12:00 EST, ESPN): Iowa 30, Minnesota 14

No. 4 TCU at Wyoming (Sat. 2:00 EST, The Mtn.): TCU 35, Wyoming 13

Connecticut at Notre Dame (Sat. 2:30 EST, NBC): Notre Dame 27, UCONN 20

No. 16 Wisconsin at Northwestern (Sat. 3:30 EST, Big Ten Network): Wisconsin 28, Northwestern 27

No. 14 Penn State at Michigan State (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC): Penn State 20, MSU 16

Kentucky at Georgia (Sat. 7:45 EST, ESPN2): Georgia 28, Kentucky 24

No. 8 LSU at Ole Miss (Sat. 3:30 EST, CBS): LSU 21, Ole Miss 17

Heisman Hunt

C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson)

Spiller has quietly launched himself into serious contention for the Heisman, ranking third in the country with 1,952 all-purpose yards. This week, Spiller and Clemson face Virginia (Sat. 3:30 EST, ABC ), a team that gave up 268 rushing yards and 515 total yards to Miami two weeks ago. Expect Spiller to put on quite a show.

Read more Stanford Football news on BleacherReport.com

Coaching at Stanford Can Only Limit Jim Harbaugh

Peter Cady — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 03:46:35 -0500

It is not a matter of if Stanford football coach Jim Harbaugh will leave the Cardinal.

It is a matter of when.

That reality is sad for the few passionate college football fans in the Bay Area who are desperate to see the local media cover college sports like their neighbors in Los Angeles do, but it is the truth nonetheless.

The chances of Stanford winning a national championship at some point in the next 30 years are about as slim as seeing an attractive stripper at the Hustler Club in San Francisco, and that's saying something.

All realistic Cardinal fans know this, and while Harbaugh may publicly state that he thinks winning a championship is possible, in private, he would acknowledge that doing so at Stanford is a stretch to say the least.

But more importantly, he realizes that the chances of winning a championship at another institution are much higher, and that he has the opportunity to be considered as a favorite for pretty much any Division-I college football and NFL jobs that open up in the near future.

Collectively, the privileged fraternity of college and pro football coaches are like the stock market.

A coach's peak value is high, but there is also no limit to how low their stock can fall and how hungry their boosters can get.

Harbaugh's counterpart in tomorrow's Big Game knows this better than anybody.

Jeff Tedford garnered the same amount of praise that Harbaugh is receiving today back in 2004, when he led the Bears to a 10-2 record and groomed a first-round quarterback in Aaron Rodgers.

Back then, reporters and analysts were quick to mention him as a candidate for high-profile college football and NFL jobs that sprang open.

That is not the case today.

He chose to stay at Cal and is the headmaster of a stagnating program at a school whose administration doesn't value football enough to give him the support that he needs to legitimately compete for a Pac-10 title.

I don't see how that fate would be any different for Harbaugh if he stays at Stanford.
Their athletic department has won 15 consecutive Director's Cups, which is given to the school that is considered to have the best all-around athletic program.

In other words, those trophies mean that Stanford's athletic department wants all sports to do well, and isn't going to sacrifice one or two in order to put its football program in a position to be in the top ten every year.

And the Harvard of the West's admissions standards will never allow for Harbaugh to compete with USC and Oregon in the long-run either.

Harbaugh has experienced recent success in getting high-caliber athletes to come to Stanford, and beating USC by 34 points will help that cause substantially, but it is unlikely that his team's rosters can be as deep as that of the Trojans and Ducks year in and year out when his pool of prospects is limited.

And that would most likely eventually put him in the same position as Tedford; the author of perennial bowl teams, but teams whose amount of consistent success leaves fans wanting more, which is unachievable for schools that don't place football on a pedestal like Florida and USC do.

Cardinal fans still have a lot to be optimistic about though.

It is unlikely that Stanford will be without Harbaugh for at least the next two seasons.

Notre Dame has become a death wish for any coach, and I doubt that he'd want that job even if it opened up, as he is the highest definition of a Michigan Man, being one who played for Bo Schembechler (that job won't open up this year, but it might by this time in 2010, and despite his opinionated comments about the school in 2007, I bet that he'd be able to get it).

He is much more likely to take the Bobby Petrino route and ride his star quarterback to a BCS game (which won't happen this year) before leaving for the NFL or a more recognizable college team, with the bowl bid and a rebuilt program serving as justification for his decision.

There are only so many coaches who have a chance to win a national championship or a Super Bowl in their lifetimes.

The 45-year old Harbaugh has been blessed with that chance, and he should take advantage of it.

That means leaving Stanford.

Read more Stanford Football news on BleacherReport.com

College Football Predictions Week 12: Who's on Upset Alert?

Sportscaster007 — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:42:25 -0500

It’s a week before Thanksgiving, and we’re all hungry for some upsets.

Fortunately, there are many upsets brewing this week.

Albeit Week 12 represents several cupcake games, there’s a good chance several teams in the top 25 will be on their toes this week, while No. 5 Cincinnati, No. 7 Georgia Tech, No. 9 Pittsburgh, and No. 18 USC will sit back and relax with their bye weeks.

Last Week: 15-7

Overall: 177-45

No. 1 Florida hasn’t looked all that impressive this season, but they’re still unblemished. The Gators were rightfully put on UPSET ALERT last week, but they once again escaped with a 24-14 over South Carolina. Florida won’t have any trouble this week putting Florida Int’l out to dry, 41-17.

No. 2 Alabama hosts a very dismal Chattanooga team. Despite a 6-4 record, the Mocs end their season with their toughest test of the season and quite possibly the best team in the nation. Alabama rolls, 45-6.

No. 3 Texas has the best chance of losing of the top five teams this week, hosting a 5-5 Jayhawks team that is on a five-game losing streak. Texas has brought their “A” game with every contest this season. Texas shows Kansas the door, 38-21.

No. 4 TCU has another possible trap game this week with Wyoming. But many “experts” thought TCU was in a trap game when they played UNLV and San Diego State. As a result, they were blown out of the water. TCU keeps up their winning ways, hammering the Cowboys, 52-10.

No. 6 Boise State heads to Utah State. This week Boise has to fight away from their “Smurf Turf,” and Utah State has played every one of its opponents tough. UPSET ALERT: Boise State. If an elite team plays a cupcake, the elite team usually has a better chance of losing if the game is played on a Friday night rather than a game on Saturday afternoon. The Smurfs survive, 41-32.

No. 8 LSU heads to Mississippi. The Rebels are 7-3 and are coming off of a very explosive victory over Tennessee, 42-17. Meanwhile, the Bayou Bengals had to rally over a dismantled Louisiana Tech team. UPSET ALERT: LSU. The Rebels put the game away late in the fourth quarter, a 27-16 victory.

No. 10 Ohio State heads to Michigan in a classic rivalry. Ohio State is on a very hot streak, while the Wolverines have lost six of their last seven games, their only victory coming over Delaware State. Ohio State wins comfortably, 27-13.

No. 11 Oregon heads to Arizona in the Game of the Week. Last week Arizona was thought to be in the third spot in the Pac-10 (based on rankings, not conference play), and now they’re in the sixth spot, behind California.

Oregon had their Pac-10 title hopes in jeopardy, losing to Stanford, 51-42. This game is expected to be a thriller! UPSET ALERT: Oregon. Oregon is unblemished at home, but they'll have a little more trouble since it's on the road. Oregon wins, 43-34.

No. 12 Oklahoma State is shaping up to be a real contender this season. But a Big 12 rivalry game on Thursday night against Colorado could get in the way of things. UPSET ALERT: Oklahoma State. Albeit Colorado lost to the Iowa State Cyclones, who suffered a 34-8 defeat to Okey State, the night games are always more competitive. Okay State survives, 27-20.

No. 13 Iowa has had trouble all season with cupcakes. Iowa is on a two-game losing streak, but they’re undoubtedly a great football team. Despite having to rally against the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State last week, the Golden Gophers are still a solid team. Iowa wins, 28-16.

No. 14 Penn State travels to “Sparty” this week, hoping to end the season with a 10-2 record. Michigan State is an offensive powerhouse that puts up a lot of points nearly every week. UPSET ALERT: Penn State.

Penn State has been overrated since the start of the season. But the Nittany Lions will have too much for Sparty, winning comfortably 31-17.

No. 15 Virginia Tech hosts N.C. State. The Wolfpack are 4-6, and they appear to be the second-worst team in the ACC, having a 1-5 record in conference play. N.C. State will hang around early, but Virginia Tech will have too much. VT gets a dominant win, 34-17.

No. 16 Wisconsin is the third best team in the Big Ten in the minds of many. The Badgers head to Northwestern this week in a potential trap game. This should be a very good one. UPSET ALERT: Wisconsin. Northwestern has won its last two games over Iowa and Illinois, both on the road. Wisconsin rallies, beating NW 34-27.

No. 17 Stanford takes on No. 25 Cal in what some believe is the Game of the Week. Stanford’s blemishes have come from Wake Forest (24-17), Oregon State (38-28), and Arizona (43-38), all on the road. The Cardinal is unblemished at home. Last week Stanford handed USC their worst loss in Pete Carroll’s era on USC’s Homecoming.

California got back into the Pac-10 discussion this week after knocking off Arizona, 24-17. Stanford makes a statement, getting their fourth straight victory, defeating California 48-24.

No. 19 Oregon State is also on a three-game winning streak with a 7-3 record overall. Albeit Oregon State lost to the Trojans, they won head-to-head against Stanford. The Beavers put on a show at Washington State, 35-14.

No. 20 Miami (FL) hosts Duke this week, hoping to regain their swagger. The Hurricanes were part of the typical trap game last week. They had a lot of recognition and accolades for their blowout win over Virginia but were caught with their shorts down against the Tar Heels, falling short 33-24. Miami (FL) gets back to its winning ways this week with a 35-20 victory.

No. 21 Utah is not the stellar team that many suggested, and last week it became the inevitable, losing to Texas Christian 55-28. Utah is a solid team, but they don’t have a single victory over a team ranked in the Top 50.

This week the Utes are handed another cupcake—San Diego State. The Aztecs are 4-6 and have wins over Southern Utah, New Mexico, New Mexico State, and Colorado State. Utah escapes a close one, 31-24.

No. 22 Brigham Young has played very well throughout the season, but they barely survived a winless Lobos team last week. Air Force has competed the entire season, but they’ve come up short in all of the games that really mattered—TCU (20-17), Minnesota (20-13), Navy (16-13, OT), and Utah (23-16, OT). Brigham Young wins another close one, 28-20.

No. 23 Clemson made their first appearance in the BCS this season after knocking off the Wolfpack of N.C. State, 43-23. Clemson has been slapped in the face in the rankings all season. Virginia is on a four-game losing streak, and it appears that they’ll be looking at five when the day’s over. Clemson puts Virginia out to dry, 38-16.

No. 24 Houston is on the brink of extinction if they lose again this week hosting Memphis. Their valid wins over Okey State, Texas Tech, and Mississippi State will suddenly become invalid if they lose to another cupcake. But the Cougars will live to see another day, getting the win in blowout fashion, 51-24.

Other Intriguing Games

(7-3) North Carolina at (7-3) Boston College

007’s Loser: Boston College (close)

(4-5) Connecticut at (6-4) Notre Dame

007’s Loser: (UPSET) Notre Dame

(6-4) Oklahoma at (6-4) Texas Tech

Oklahoma can’t win the close games. 007’s Loser: Oklahoma (close)

(6-5) Kansas State at (7-3) Nebraska

007’s Loser: K-State

(4-6) Mississippi State at (6-4) Arkansas

007’s Loser: Miss State

(6-4) Kentucky at (6-4) Georgia

007’s Loser: Kentucky (close)

Read more Stanford Football news on BleacherReport.com

Mark Ingram and Toby Gerhart: Sizing Up the Two Best Backs in the Nation

Bryan Kelly — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:48:41 -0500

College football pundits have deemed 2009 the "Year of the Running Back." And why not? The top three passers coming into the year are either injured (Sam Bradford), inconsistent (Colt McCoy) or underwhelming (Tim Tebow).

And therein is lesson number one of college football punditry—if your top three passers aren't throwing well, that means no one is throwing well. On to the running backs, please!

So be it—perhaps it ought to be the "Year of the Running Back." After all, the Wildcat has reached even the far, unimaginative reaches of the NFL. Out rushing your opponent still largely determines the success or failure of your team.

Plus, the Heisman race was fast becoming a trumped up Davey O'Brien award. It's about time another position wins.

In any case, two running backs now compete for our attention—Stanford's Toby Gerhart and Alabama's Mark Ingram.

Lets compare their strengths and weaknesses, their value to the team, and how they project at the next level before you decide which you prefer to have on your team.

Strengths

Ingram is a tough, resilient running back who has carried the rock for Alabama all year. His instinctual running is well-suited for the Tide's use of the Wildcat, where an additional blocker and the threat of misdirection often results in a chaotic line of scrimmage.

Additionally, his size (he stands 5'10" on a good day) helps him to "run small," by fitting through tiny openings in the blocking scheme. He runs confidently, is patient when he needs to be, but can bust through a gap in iso runs for short yardage when necessary.

He's taken the majority of snaps at running back despite being pushed by backs Roy Upchurch and Trent Richardson.

His greatest weapon is his speed. He has the mythical "initial burst" that the most sought after trait in running backs, the moment where it looks as though the defenders are running on sand. I remember watching Ingram's gashing runs against Virginia Tech at the start of the year and I could not believe how slow the Hokie defense looked.

Ingram flung himself at the Tech defense time after time, helping secure the win in the fourth. His commitment to such an indefatigable, smash-mouth style, is one of the many reasons he has endeared himself to Tide fans.

Straight up, Toby Gerhart trucks fools. His upright running style requires great lower body strength, making you think he'd be more vulnerable to low tackles. Yet teams have not been successful in chopping him down, a strong indicator of his tremendous sense of balance.

Gerhart hits the hole fast, and does a great job following his blockers. Anyone capable of getting a tackle for a loss against Toby Gerhart should be awarded a bronze star. He's capable of being tackled only in droves and can fall forward for five yards like an old-school fullback.

And if having his offensive line create a whole wasn't enough, he can also make his own. Some of his better runs are have come when he meets a wall of blockers and uses terrific lateral movement to break containment and gash defenses along the sideline.

Without contact, Gerhart also possesses elusive speed, something that distinguishes him from being a trumped-up fullback. Watch him outrun Oregon State's speedy, under-sized defense —particularly on the draw play on third and 15, you can see Gerhart flat out beat the secondary to the outside.

Weaknesses

Gerhart is not a particularly good receiving back—easy guess is, he just doesn't have the hands for it—so that limits the effectiveness of what could be an outstanding screen game, especially given Stanford QB Andrew Luck's remarkable accuracy.

Aside from that, the usual limitations to any power running game apply. Hit Gerhart early and often, and you limit his ability to get a head of steam. Don't lose containment—he's a shifty back who likes to bounce it outside. Teams bring safeties up at their peril.

(How Wake Forest—a team that is 11th in the ACC in rush defense, was able to contain him is beyond me. I missed the game, but it looks by the box score as though Stanford relied heavily on the passing game.)

Mark Ingram has very few weaknesses. While he has proven to be a fine receiver out of the backfield, his pass protection abilities are limited by his size.

The closest thing I can come up with is that Ingram can be knocked off balance, and struggles to recover his speed once solid contact is made. He's still in the upper echelon in terms of backs—I'm speaking only in the sense of how he compares among the best balancing acts, Gerhart included. First contact is not easy to run through for Ingram, but God knows he's trying.

Value To Their Team

Try immeasurable, on both sides.

The Tide and the Cardinal go as their running backs go. Stanford's loss to Wake Forest can be directly correlated to Gerhart's pedestrian 87 yards, as can Alabama's close call against Tennessee, during which Ingram rushed for 99 yards and no touchdowns.

Gerhart and Ingram have time and again sealed wins for their teams late in the game, contributing immensely to their value. Ingram did it in epic back-to-back tight games against Ole Miss and South Carolina. While Greg McElroy struggled, Ingram was deployed for full length drives in the Wildcat formation, ending in touchdowns that put the games out of reach. His late runs against Virginia Tech and Kentucky were similarly crucial.

Gerhart kept the Stanford scoring machine alive against USC and Oregon, tearing off first downs and proving unstoppable in the red zone. His production is crucial for Stanford to control the clock and minimize their time on defense, a unit that has yet to catch up to the accomplishments of its offensive counterpart.

Ingram has carried his team through the trials of Greg McElroy's dwindling confidence, but Gerhart still outnumbers Ingram in terms of attempts, 246 to 194. To me that indicates that while Ingram is a cog, albeit a large cog, in the Tide offense, Gerhart is the Stanford offense. He is the substance of the Stanford identity.

Just as Ingram is the logical continuation of what Glen Coffee started last year, Roy Upchurch will do the same if Ingram decides to depart for the NFL. Without Ingram, the Tide would plug in another of their backs, and the offense would look similar to how it does now.

Gerhart is the back—there are no players behind him. Next year, Stanford cannot expect to be successful at what it does now with Stepfan Taylor or Tyler Gaffney.

This is what makes Gerhart the more crucial of the two.

How They Project

Gerhart doesn't project well. You can't have trucking your opponent be your only method of attack against NFL players. And his speed, even laterally, won't be enough. Cornerbacks and safeties are a lot faster—and keep containment a lot better—at the next level.

I mean, I hate to be "That Guy." The one saying Gerhart can't do something, but bowling people over is not a strategy that translates from college to the pros. As a third down back in pass protection, running the occasional safe draw play, sure. But the Great White Hope in the NFL, Gerhart is not. Enjoy him now.

Ingram projects well. He's shown he can take punishment, and his speed is NFL caliber. His size precludes pass protection, and that tends to telegraph run/pass in the more sophisticated scheming of the professionals, which could hurt his productivity at the next level if teams run-blitz.

But he has shown great ability at receiving, so he would be a great fit in any screen-heavy passing offense (perhaps the Chargers or Jets).

Another year of barrelling through SEC defenses will only improve his legendary stamina—if he waits that long. He's an easy first rounder whenever he chooses to pursue a career in the NFL.

My Choice

Are we talking college or the NFL?

That's really the difference between the two, in my opinion. Gerhart is currently a man among boys, simply bowling his opponents over, while Ingram is a pre-professional, fine-tuning his versatility and finding new, previously unheard of ways to break big plays.

That's why I'd prefer to give Gerhart the Heisman —it is, after all, a college award. Let fortune take care of Mark Ingram, as it most surely will.

My choice... I'm picking Gerhart .

Read more Stanford Football news on BleacherReport.com

Stanford-Cal: Can the Cardinal Avoid a Huge Hangover in the Big Game?

Jason Figueiredo-Dumpit — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:09:20 -0500

Everyone has experienced a hangover once or twice before. But those who really like to party know that the effects of a multi-day binge can be much more gut-wrenching and so much harder to recover from.

In this weekend’s Big Game against Cal, Stanford hopes to keep the drinks flowing and continue on the vast amount of success they have experienced over the past two weekends.

The unexpected beginning to Stanford’s ferocious final four games has many believing that if they can do what they did to those two Top-Ten teams, it's much more likely that they will be able to do the same to a beat-up Cal and a beleaguered Norte Dame.

While Cal experienced a flurry of wins in the Big Game the past decade (winning seven of the past ten games), this isn’t your father’s Stanford team marching out onto the field this Saturday.

Stanford played the David role to at T against Oregon’s and USC’s Goliath, but on the Farm this weekend they are a touchdown favorite over the Golden Bears. Will Stanford be able to play with the head of steam that possessed as they did as underdogs?

They better hope so.

Jim Harbaugh is undefeated against Cal in Palo Alto after a surprising victory in his first Big Game two years ago. But after a convincing loss to the Bears last year in Berkeley, it is hard to say which coach really has the edge in the 112th matchup of this heated cross-bay rivalry.

Stanford holds a slight edge in this series (43-39-6), which started back in 1918. They also possess a winning record when the Big Game is played on the Farm (24-18-1).

But when these two teams face off, all historical games can usually be thrown out the window.

Have no doubt that Stanford is looking at this game as their chance at the Pac-10 title. A loss this weekend all but negates their chances at the coveted crown.

But how will Jim Harbaugh and the Cardinal respond after the huge win last weekend?

In 2007, after Harbaugh’s Cardinal went into Los Angeles Coliseum and slayed the Pete Carroll dragon, things didn’t go too well the next week on the Farm. A ranked TCU came into Palo Alto and sucked the air right out of Stanford’s balloon.

But once again, this isn’t the Stanford Cardinal that teams have longed to kick around.

This team put up 50-plus points on both USC and Oregon. Teams that Cal failed to put up more than a field goal against.

This team has a bulldozer for a running back who sneezes and gains five yards.

This team has a gun-slinger for a quarterback that is quite possibly the best passer this college has seen since the legendary John Elway walked these campus lawns.

If Oregon and USC can put up exorbitant amounts of points on this Golden Bear defense, there is no doubt in my mind that the Cardinal will be able to do the same.

So, before you grab for that aspirin in anticipation for any type of hangover, it might be time to head to the liquor store, because the party isn’t quite over just yet.

Read more Stanford Football news on BleacherReport.com

Is Andrew Luck the Most Sure Thing NFL QB Prospect Since Peyton Manning?

John Lorge — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:55:30 -0500

Stanford's redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck is making a good argument for the title "best quarterback in the country." After navigating the Cardinal to a 55-21 road win over USC, in which Luck threw for two TDs and ran for one with no interceptions, Luck is starting to hit the national spotlight—and he deserves it.

Luck has completed 58 percent of his passes (138-238), amassing 2,220 yards and 13 TDs with only three interceptions through 10 games. He has also displayed good athleticism, both in the pocket (six sacks) and the open field (288 yards, two TDs).

Stanford's leader is senior running back Toby Gerhart, a Doak Walker finalist and Heisman dark horse, but without the strong play of Luck the Cardinal wouldn't be 7-3, including a perfect 5-0 at home, as they host Cal this Saturday in a NorCal rivalry.

No other member of the 2013 NFL Draft class is close to touching Luck's 151.8 QB rating (Matt Barkley's is 132.2), and the member of Luck's 2008 high school class playing closest to his level is Missouri sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert with a 139.76 QB rating.

The present is bright but the future is blinding for Luck, who is looking like the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning—maybe even if he comes out before the 2013 draft (Luck will be eligible in 2011).

Before dissecting Luck's feet and arm, first you need to get inside his head. Andrew Luck is smart, Stanford smart—he was valedictorian of Houston's Stratford High School in 2008 where he amassed 7,139 passing yards and 53 TDs on the field.

Luck has had a different pedigree than most smart kids with excellent physical attributes. His father Oliver Luck is the president and general manager of the Houston Dynamo—a non-traditional career path for a former Houston Oilers QB.

Much like his son, Oliver was a standout on the field and in the classroom; the two-time Academic All-American and Rhodes Scholar finalist graduated magna cum laude from West Virginia before backing up Warren Moon for a majority of his NFL career.

While Oliver Luck didn't have the football career of Archie Manning, he was still a professional quarterback, and, as a father, could offer his son rare gems of knowledge that the average aspiring QB is not privvy to.

Now that Andrew Luck is out from under his father's wing, he couldn't have a better coach and mentor than Jim Harbaugh, who quarterbacked in the NFL from 1987 to 2001.

I think it's safe to say that when Luck enters the NFL Draft he will wow in interviews, ace whiteboard sessions, and dominate the Wonderlic.

At 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, Luck—who reportedly put 20 pounds on his frame since arriving to Palo Alto in 2008—has the prototypical height and bulk you look for in a QB prospect.

Unlike prospects in shotgun spread systems such as Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy, who never step foot under center, Luck is running a pro-style offense that gives scouts a great look at his three, five, and seven step drops and play action fakes.

When dropping, Luck could do a better job of scanning the field and not staring down his target, but his footwork is clean, he keeps a good strong base, and he has a good pop off his back foot. Stepping into his throws, Luck displays above average arm strength—he doesn't have a rare arm like former Cardinal John Elway but it is better than that of another former Cardinal, Trent Edwards.

Even when pressured, Luck will stand in the pocket, delivering throws when contacted. Luck's willingness to face pressure has led to some hits Harbaugh would prefer he'd not take, and they can result in fumbles.

If he sees space in front of him he makes a quick decision to tuck and run and overall he has very good pocket presence, especially for a freshman.

When Luck throws he seems to have a condensed arm action, and it is something scouts will nitpick as he enters the NFL. The throwing motion still comes over the top, and when Luck is throwing on the run, as he commonly does off play actions in Stanford's scheme, he seems to emphasize the over-the-top throwing motion.

With Gerhart being the undisputed leader of Stanford's O, Luck can still grow leaps and bounds in terms of on-field leadership, but he already displays confidence in front of his teammates and commands the huddle.

Some feel a comparison to Manning is premature for Luck, but if he takes the Manning path and develops through his senior year, he projects to be a No. 1 overall pick and instant NFL starter.

Top Five QB Prospects Based On Potential

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, 2013—Much of the QB position is played before the snap. Luck has the brain for that and the tools to finish those reads.

2. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas, 2012—Outstanding size, very good at avoiding turnovers, and a live arm, but Bobby Petrino's system hasn't been NFL friendly.

3. Jake Locker, Washington, 2011—One more year of school will be best. Aside from the occasional wild pitch he has it all.

4. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, 2011—Will be best-off not playing until the 2011 season or later. If he plays for a team with a line he can be great.

5. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame, 2011—Very accurate and has shown good arm strength. His two receivers are better than anyone on the four teams above.

Follow me on Twitter @JohnLorge.

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Scout's Breakdown of The Top NFL Offensive Prospects

Wes Bunting — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:12:04 -0500

Observations and analysis from the 11th week of the college football season, including thoughts about some of the nation’s top offensive prospects .

Anthony Dixon running back, Mississippi State

I have to admit that I vastly underrated the talents of Mississippi State running back Anthony Dixon. In my latest senior rankings, he looks like a potential starting back in the NFL. After talking to some scouts in the league last week and watching his performance Saturday against Alabama, I’m starting to believe Dixon has the makings of a real workhorse in the NFL. Sure, his stats were only modest vs. the Crimson Tide (22 carries for 81 yards, six catches for 59 yards), but he was consistently able to pick up tough yards at the line of scrimmage and bail out his overmatched offensive line.

Dixon’s combination of instincts, lateral quickness, and power make him tough to bring down inside and he exhibits a much better first step. He isn’t the most explosive straight-line athlete and isn’t going to be a big-time threat at the second level, but the guy has consistently been able to manufacture yards behind a poor Mississippi State offensive line while running against the best defenses in the country. And although his stats won’t blow you away, Dixon looks capable stepping into an NFL training camp and improving a team’s run game.

Jason Pinkston left tackle, Pittsburgh

I was really impressed with the play of Pittsburgh left tackle Jason Pinkston vs. Notre Dame. The junior lineman is listed at 6'4", 305 pounds, but he possesses a thick, broad, upper body, and displays impressive coordination in all areas of his game. He looked very natural reaching the corner in pass protection and consistently was able to keep his base down and anchor at the point of attack. Plus, he generates impressive power on contact and was very fluid when asked to pull and hit a moving target in space.

Now, although he possesses good length for his size, I don’t think he’s a left tackle at the next level, but he definitely has me intrigued enough to warrant major consideration as a potential starting right tackle or guard in the NFL.

Keiland Williams running back, LSU

LSU running back Keiland Williams finally got his chance to start in the absence of former starting back Charles Scott and didn’t disappoint. Williams finished the game against Louisiana Tech with 116 yards on only 15 carries for two touchdowns and an average of 7.7 yards per carry. Louisiana Tech isn’t the most talented of defenses, but it’s notable that Williams gives the LSU offense a little more playmaking ability in the run game than Scott ever did.

Williams looks much more instinctive inside and possesses the short-area quickness to make a man miss and create on his own if everything isn’t blocked to perfection—unlike Scott, who, although runs with good power, struggles to be effective if the offensive line doesn’t win up front. I’ve always like Williams’ base off his game tape and thought that he simply needed to chance to shine. And now, with a strong finish to the season, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if it’s Williams who ended up being the top running back selected out of LSU at draft time.

Toby Gerhart running back, Stanford

Say what you want about Stanford running back Toby Gerhart, he may not be the greatest athlete, but the guy simply finds a way to get the job done. Gerhart has rushed for 401 yards in his last two games vs. Oregon and Southern Cal and has the type of power to absolutely wear down opposing front sevens. He exhibits impressive vision and patience at the line of scrimmage and does a great job allowing his blocks to set up, dropping his pad level and churning out tough yards inside.

Gerhart also possesses impressive balance for his size and is a much more gifted short-area athlete. He's quick enough to sidestep a defender in space and consistently run through would-be tackles at the line. I don’t think he’s a featured back in the NFL because he struggles to create on his own and lacks much of a second gear, but if you’re in need of a physical No. 2 type of back who can block in the pass game and convert short-yardage situations, Gerhart is your guy.

MAC wideouts who just don’t stack up

Bryan Anderson, Central Michigan

Anderson is a tall, well-built receiver who possesses impressive body control and coordination for a receiver his size. However, his lack of initial burst in all areas of his game, really has me concerned about his upside at the next level. He does a nice job using his body to shield defenders and attack the football, but he isn’t a real good athlete and gets too leggy when trying to change directions and get back up to speed. His size and ball skills will definitely get him a shot at the next level, but the idea that he has the potential to start on the outside for an NFL team is wishful at best.

Taylor Price, Ohio

Although Price is a good-looking receiver who possesses the speed to threaten defenses vertically, he fails to consistently beat press coverage and get into his routes quickly. He exhibits a good initial burst off the line and possesses the body control to snap off routes cleanly vs. off man/zone.

However, he isn’t nearly as explosive when asked to fight his way through any kind of a bump and lacks the type of short-area quickness and strength to routinely win battles off the line. Price will likely get over-drafted because of his size and speed numbers, but he’s never going to make an impact in the NFL until he learns to beat press man.

Stephen Williams, Toledo

Williams is another tall wideout who has shown the ability to pluck the football away from his frame and who does a nice job setting up his routes underneath. Williams, however, struggles to play with any kind of suddenness and takes way too long to get out of his breaks to separate at the next level. Although he’s been productive this season and does a nice job finding soft spots in zone coverage, there’s simply nothing dynamic about his game that would threaten cornerbacks at the next level and he will struggle to make plays vs. any kind of man coverage in the NFL.

Follow me on Twitter: WesBunting

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Why Toby Gerhart's Race Will Prevent Him from Winning the Heisman

Bryan Kelly — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 10:40:16 -0500

It was news to me—as it probably was to everyone else, including Pete Carroll—that Toby Gerhart set the all-time record for rushing yards in the state of California as a high school player.

When you consider the outstanding running backs that played their high school ball as native sons of the Golden State—OJ Simpson, Jahvid Best, Reggie Bush, Marcus Allen, hell, even Ken Simonton—that's a pretty staggering accomplishment.

So it should also not be news that this season, Gerhart's 1,395 yards are best in the Pac-10 and third best in the country. Also, his 19 rushing touchdowns are second only to Ricky Dobbs, who quarterbacks Navy's triple-option rush offense.

He's put up 223 yards and 178 yards against the (supposedly) two best defenses in the conference, posting back-to-back top-10 upsets for the former Pac-10 bottom dweller.

In that Oregon game, Gerhart rushed a bruising 38 times, then came back the next week to pound USC for 29 more in the Coliseum, scoring three of the Cardinal touchdowns in the 55-21 rout.

But none of that will matter. At least, not for individual accolades. Toby Gerhart is a white football player in the wrong position for white people.

Like the skepticism that voters showed toward the Iowa Hawkeyes throughout the year, no one with a ballot thinks Gerhart's rushing statistics are legitimate.

They're waiting for a game in which he rushes for under 100 yards to declare, "A-ha! He's a flash in the pan! He's benefiting from a great offensive line! Not enough credit was being given to Andrew Luck! Now, if he just threw the ball..."

Why? Because a white running back is called a fullback, or a slot receiver who forgot to motion out of the backfield (and even then, we're talking Wes Welker, the guys at BYU, and few else).

Because no one believes white people have the innate physical gifts to succeed at the running back position like black players do. White players throw, play tight end, punt, and kick; black players run, or catch and run. That is the simple, immutable order of things.

And finally, because Gerhart's style of running is not fancy. He runs powerful and upright and he hits the hole quickly—like a fullback, except faster and with better balance.

What he doesn't do is dance around. He won't flip unless you hit him right. Juking and spinning are pretty much out of the question. He'd rather knock you down than leap over you, and he'd certainly rather hit you than run around you.

His runs will not make you go, "Oh, damn!" in that way Reggie Bush's or Jahvid Best's can. They're rather like watching a prize fight, where the boxer about to win is slowly stringing together a bruising, deadly combination.

That his running style is of particularly low "intelligence" and appears to demand less "skill" certainly doesn't help matters. Nor does it help that he plays for Stanford, a historical bottom-dweller in the Pac-10 that only recently began flirting with a winning record, on the wrong coast.

To the voters, Gerhart is, if I can venture the term, a "system runner." A trumped-up fullback in a power-running game who's shown uncommon speed and balance, but is nowhere near the "other" running backs in terms of skill because of his race.

This will be what prevents him from winning the Heisman.

Now, I am certainly not saying the Heisman is biased against white people. That'd be a tough argument to make, given that only two black players have won this decade.

But Gerhart is still the victim of a subtle, persistent racism against white running backs—and against blacks in the quarterback position, for what it's worth. And though this subtle racism can be supported by NFL combines and Wonderlic tests, it harms those small few who are the exception.

Donovan McNabb is probably one of the greatest players this decade, and certainly one of the most exciting to watch, lack of Super Bowl rings aside. But in those games, or stretches of games, where he's struggled, it is his intelligence, not his ability, that is routinely questioned.

We can fire the Rush Limbaughs of the sports announcing world all we want. (Although, is Keith Olbermann really a better choice?) The belief that McNabb, Jason Campbell, or Vince Young cannot succeed because they're not naturally bright will persist each time they face difficulty in games.

On the other side of the coin is Gerhart. Heisman voters will be quick to point out his 82 yards against Wake Forest in Stanford's 24-17 loss in Week Two, or his 96 yards in the Cardinal's 38-28 loss to Oregon State.

If Gerhart was the Great White Hope, why didn't his natural ability help him rise above those struggles?

The truth is that every running back struggles—through injury, but also just by being off, not seeing the hole, or facing defenses that have their "move" all figured out. But when Gerhart—and Stanford—lose, their hype takes a precipitous tumble.

Those aren't bad breaks in the polls—you think BCS voters had an easy time voting the Cardinal ahead of their darling USC this week?

No, the penalty is more severe because respect for this program and this player was never there to begin with.

Gerhart's great games, even if they outnumber the bad ones 4:1, are aberrations to a de facto rule: White people cannot play tailback at the same level as black people.

I'd like to believe this is all wrong, that Stanford will win out and flirt with the Pac-10 title, and Gerhart will sway the Heisman voters to his cause once he storms Cal and trucks Notre Dame's defense for 200 yards apiece, even with defenses gunning for him.

Maybe a rogue Heisman campaign has begun in the time it took to write this.

I hope so. Gerhart deserves better than our embarrassing, stereotypical biases and our disrespect. He's not the Great White Hope—I have no idea who or what that could be—but he's a damn good running back and arguably the most productive player at his position on the year.

If a black man can win the presidency, why can't a white running back who leads the nation in touchdowns be called the greatest college football player of the year?

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Stanford Cardinal Puts 55 on the USC Trojans, Totally Blows Its Cover

Andrew Nuschler — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 14:37:17 -0500

Given my extreme-bordering-on-unhealthy devotion to the San Francisco Giants, some might be surprised to learn there are many athletic teams whose exploits I take far more personally than those of the Orange and Black. Yep, there's a reason I don't write very often about the Stanford Cardinal.

When things are going well for one of my Alma mater's squads, like many alumni, I embrace it with an intimate connection that doesn't exist with los Gigantes.

Let's face it—you can become as true a fan as possible of any professional franchise. Locals might argue they have a stronger, purer synergy with their teams than remote fans, but that's becoming more and more fatuous in the Information Age. Furthermore, anyone who pays the price of sweat and tears earns the right to wear the label "true fan."

Contrarily, you can't just choose to be an alumnus or alumna of a school.

You've got to earn your way in (for the most part), go to class (or at least pass them), become part of the student body, and then graduate. At a school like Stanford, there's an extra little perk because the Farm actually forces the integration of student-athletes with the rest of the population.

In my freshman dorm, I lived across the hall from one of the baseball team's two aces—he got drafted by the Colorado Rockies although his career never panned out.

The original literal twin towers—Jason and Jarron Collins—lived one and two floors down, respectively. Mark Madsen (accidentally) almost killed my date on several occasions while showing the same reckless exuberance on a dance floor as he shows on the basketball court.

All are in the National Basketball Association.

I had class with Riall Johnson, a defensive end on the football team that went to the Rose Bowl. He played in the National Football League for a while and now plies his trade in the Canadian Football League.

I'm not mentioning these guys to drop names—aside from the baseball player, I wasn't friends with any of them and never even spoke to Johnson. Instead, I'm trying to show the university incorporated even the blue-chippers into the average, daily student life.

One result of the policy was a different feel to the athletic program than seems to exist at a lot of schools. Rather than giving off the aura of an exclusive club for the glitterati, the collective felt more like a high school version i.e. friendship and familiarity erased the disconnect created by the imminent potential for millions of dollars and pseudo-celebrity.

The student-athletes weren't uniquely different, just different in the same way an engineering major was different from an English major.

Regardless of whether other or most schools take Stanford's approach, alumni share a deeper commonality with their schools' teams than an average fan or one of a professional franchise because there is that shared context.

That's not to say alumni are better fans, but I do think those alumni devoted to the programs feel the wins and losses differently, more viscerally.

Maybe it's arrogant, but I really do feel like I have contributed and continue to contribute to Stanford's success in all facets because I was once a student there. I made the sacrifices it asked of me and this is part of my reward.

If Stanford wins, the alumni win.

On the other hand, if Stanford loses, the alumni lose.

Which brings me back to my original point—if things are going well, I don't want to jinx the development by calling attention to it because the injury gets magnified.

Luckily, when you hang 55 points on the USC Trojans, the situation calls attention to itself and I can go along for the ride. When you etch your name into the Men of Troy record books next to the line that says, "Most Points Ever Surrendered to:" the mighty Cardinal's trumpet will drown out mine.

Most Stanford fans thought this game had some sort of potential to be a blow-out.

We just didn't think we'd be on the enjoyable end, not with the game being played in Southern California and the Cardinal coming off a thrashing of the Oregon Ducks (who dropped a not-too-stale beating on USC). We certainly didn't think it would be the Cardinal trying to run up the score, going for a two-point conversion despite a 48-21 lead.

Incidentally, let's have no illusions about this—Jim Harbaugh was most certainly trying to rub Pete Carroll's nose in it with that move. You can believe with equal certainty that, had the opposition been Northern Arizona or Temple, Harbaugh would've called off the dogs much earlier than he did.

The two-point try and final score were part of a personally tailored message to Goliath that said, "payback's a bitch."

As was every one of Toby Gerhart's punishing 178 yards and three touchdowns. I don't know what the qualifications are for the Heisman Trophy, but the Stanford running back has to be climbing the ladder of front-running candidates.

If he manages to shock the college football world by taking home the hardware, he'll owe some very large dinners to his offensive linemen. The so-called Tunnel Diggers Union should be getting some nice concessions in its next collective bargaining agreement because those monsters up front are doing work. Good work.

Red-shirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck is having an excellent campaign due to the protection afforded by the big uglies and Gerhart owes many of his yards to the same group.

Still, the most important variable in the entire equation is Harbaugh.

The new resolve and sincerity to the mission at hand starts with the head coach, then trickles down. You could see proof of it in the way each and every Stanford player finished each and every play with 100 percent effort. Whether it was the vapors of a big gain or the last couple inches of a two-yard lean forward, quit only set in after the whistle.

That was the difference and it's a direct reflection of Jim Harbaugh's pervasive personality.

Stanford will never—NEVER—have the sheer athleticism to compete with the likes of USC. But, on Saturday it proved that the team has more than enough discipline, determination, toughness, and intelligence to execute precisely.

Added to those ingredients, this football team has enough raw talent to beat anyone .

But they're no longer a sneaky little secret—a double-nickel on USC will have everyone taking notice of the Stanford Cardinal.

And that means the real tests may be yet to come.

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