Bleacher Report - BYU Football

Air Force (7-4) at No. 19 BYU (8-2): An Air Force Upset, Or a BYU Blowout?

Tyler Stimson — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:26:26 -0500

I thought this sign (held up by a BYU fan at an Air Force game in a previous year) was hilarious.

On paper, this game looks like it will be a tough close game. Air Force has one of the best defenses in the country, and one of the best rushing offense.

They may be 7-4, but those four losses have come by a combined 20 points, three were on the road (at Minnesota, at Navy, and at Utah), and the other was to TCU. Air Force is a very good football team this year. They are much better than their 6-4 record would indicate. They've been extremely competitive and have had a good chance to win in every single game they've played this year; they could be 10-0 right now.

And BYU certainly looked completely underwhelming last week, at winless New Mexico. BYU was favored by 28; they ended up escaping with a five point win.

BYU has not looked very impressive at home. They've won comfortably against Colorado State and Utah State, and they looked downright awful in blowout losses against Florida State and TCU.

BYU lost to TCU 38-7. Air Force almost won, before falling 20-17.

The experts at Las Vegas Sporting Consultants opened with a line of 7.5 in favor of BYU. But a lot of money has come in for BYU, and the line now stands at BYU (-10).

Everything points to a close battle with Air Force that could go either way.

But I think BYU will win convincingly. Here's why:

Bronco has never lost to Air Force, and none of the games have been particularly close.

BYU vs. Air Force (during the Bronco Mendenhall era)

62-41, BYU

33-14, BYU

31-6, BYU

38-24, BYU

BYU won all four games by an average margin of 41-21.

Now, that was in previous years. We are talking about 2009, not 05-08.

Last year, Air Force was 8-2 heading into their contest with the Cougars, and they still fell by two touchdowns in Colorado Springs.. That team also had only close losses up to that point, having lost two games by a total of 10 points.

BYU has had Air Forces number the last four years. And while this year's Air Force team is different, their record (7-4) is comparable, or worse compared to previous years. Harvey Unga should be able to run it easily against the Air Force defense, and I like Max Hall's chances to be successful as well.

As far as BYU's defense is concerned, I think they will do an adequate enough job, and hold Air Force to around 21 points. I think the offense will take care of the rest, and I think BYU wins by two touchdowns or more, 38-21.

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BYU Better Be Ready for Air Force...or Be Grounded In Another Home Upset

Mark Welling — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:00:12 -0500

BYU better not be thinking about the Holy War this weekend, because Air Force has the talent to beat the Cougars at home.

The Falcons are playing their final regular season game this weekend, and they would like to end their season on a high note.

BYU has traditionally dominated Air Force. The Cougars hold a 22-6 edge in the all-time series against the Falcons. The last time Air Force beat BYU was in 2003 at LaVell Edwards stadium.

Yet, this Air Force team appears to be breaking the mold of a traditional Air Force team. Usually, the academy schools tend to fizzle as the season wears on. The training required in addition to football takes a lot out of the Air Force players, and the Falcons struggle to finish the football season strong.

This season the Falcons have won four of their last five games, with their only loss coming on the road in overtime against Utah.

Air Force has struggled in the past against better football programs. This season, the Falcons have competed in every game they have played. Their four losses are each by one touchdown or less. Two of their losses came in overtime. Plus, the Falcons played TCU better than any other conference team this season—losing by three points at home.

Another difference in this year’s Air Force team is their defense. Air Force has one of the better defenses not only in the conference but in the nation. The Falcons are ranked first in passing defense, seventh in total defense, ninth in scoring defense, and first in turnover margin.

Their defense causes and takes advantage of the other team’s mistakes, and converts turnovers into points. Air Force’s defense also benefits from the Falcon triple option attack. The triple option offense allows the defense to rest, and also forces the other team to press in order to get the football back.

Air Force, much like BYU, bases their offensive and defensive schemes on out-executing the other team on the field.

If the Cougars play in the Air Force game like they did in the New Mexico or TCU game, then it could be a very disappointing afternoon for BYU. Air Force has something left to prove this season, and they will be pulling out all the stops to get a win over a ranked BYU.

A healthy Harvey Unga will really help BYU to avoid an upset this weekend. BYU needs to give their defense a rest, and cannot afford too many three-and-outs during the game. Air Force’s defensive weakness is against the run; they are ranked 56th, giving up 137.45 yards per game. The Cougars should try to win this game on the ground. Outmuscle the smaller defensive front of Air Force, and run between the tackles.

This also means BYU cannot panic if they go down early in the game and abandon the running game. Robert Anae’s offensive playing calling continues to slow down Harvey Unga’s production. The Cougars have the best back in the Mountain West Conference, but continue to struggle to find ways of giving him the football.

It is important for BYU to score first against Air Force. The Falcons don’t play well from behind. The triple option isn’t designed to mount comebacks, but it is designed to keep games close. When Air Force is forced to go away from the triple option attack that is when teams can really open up a lead against them.

BYU cannot afford any turnovers against Air Force. The Cougars need to clean up the interceptions, fumbles, and mental mistakes (such as dropping first down passes). Giving up easy points to Air Force, due to good field position, is a sure way of setting themselves up for an upset.

Another key is BYU needs to play hungry. Air Force is going to try and punch BYU right in the mouth, and then take away the victory. The Cougars have struggled this season when teams have challenged them. BYU seems to be softer this season, and hasn’t been as quick to be the aggressor in the football games.

If BYU struggles with the challenge of Air Force this weekend, things could be much worse the following weekend against the Utes in the Holy War.

BYU needs to defend their home field, and be the more aggressive team this Saturday. BYU needs to play with some kind of passion.

For more sports news, podcasts, articles, and insights visit The Big Podcast.

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BYU Football Podcast: Where Does Max Hall Rank Among Cougar Greats?

Mark Welling — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:06:20 -0500

To listen to the BYU Football Podcast, click here .

(Or download the podcast by right-clicking and selecting "Save link as...")

Here is an outline of what hosts Jake Stowell and Mark Welling talked about in this week's podcast.

Was the New Mexico game terrifying or just plain boring?
BYU completely overlooked New Mexico on the road.
Why does BYU go away from the hurry-up offense?
A preview of Air Force vs. BYU.
What is causing a drop in Dennis Pitta's production?
Where does Max Hall rank among BYU quarterbacks?

Thanks for listening to another edition of the BYU podcast. We continue to welcome e-mails and comments and encourage questions or suggestions for upcoming podcasts.

The BYU Football Podcast is Episode 29 of "The Big Podcast." Recorded Nov. 16, 2009.

For more sports podcasts news, articles and insights, visit The Big Podcast.

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The All-Time BYU Football Team

Mark Welling — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 11:49:29 -0500

BYU should easily take care of New Mexico this weekend. It should be a game BYU dominates, which basically means it will be fun to watch for about a quarter and a half. During boring BYU games is the perfect time for speculation about the Cougars. Seeing it is the 25th anniversary of BYU's National Championship I have been discussing and thinking about which players would makeup the All-Time BYU Football team. Here is the All-Time BYU Football Team, broken down by positions. (I would like to acknowledge contributions from Aaron Welling, Tyler Stimson —Featured Columnist for BYU Football and Jake Stowell—host of “The Big Podcast.")

Begin Slideshow

BYU (7-2) vs. New Mexico (0-9): But Really, Who Cares?

Tyler Stimson — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 01:29:43 -0500

After getting demolished by a superior team at home (TCU), BYU went on the road and demolished Wyoming, 52-0.

BYU now has the task of playing at (0-9) New Mexico. Does anyone even think this game will be close?

Could it possibly be worth watching?

The experts in Vegas have BYU pegged as a 28 point road favorite.

I'll be surprised if its that close.

If there is one thing that BYU has been good at this season, it is absolutely destroying inferior teams on the road.

BYU's Road Games

BYU 14 - Oklahoma 13

BYU 54 - Tulane 3

BYU 59 - UNLV 21

BYU 38 - SDSU 28

BYU 52 - Wyoming 0

Only one of these games was ever in real doubt (Oklahoma), and only one other of was remotely close (SDSU).

The other games were no contests, as BYU won by an average of 55-8.

New Mexico's Home Games

Tulsa 44 - New Mexico 10

Air Force 37 - New Mexico 13

New Mexico State 20 - New Mexico 17

UNLV 34 - New Mexico 17

The same UNLV team that got crushed by BYU 59-21, went down to New Mexico and won 34-17.

Even with a 28 point spread, I expect the Cougars to cover easily.

New Mexico is, by far, the worst team in the conference.

The only way this game is remotely close is if BYU takes New Mexico for granted, and is caught looking ahead to a tough game against Air Force next Saturday.

BYU's defense, while maligned by Cougar Fans, has only two bad games all year. Giving up 54 to FSU, and 38 to TCU.

They should be able to shutdown New Mexico, a team that averages less than 14 points a game.

Max Hall is the king of these type of games. In his entire playing career (two-and-a-half-plus years), Max Hall has seven losses. Three were to BCS teams: UCLA, Florida State, and Arizona. One was to Tulsa. And the other three are to Utah and TCU (twice). And Max Has beaten all of these teams (except FSU and Tulsa) at least once, and he beat UCLA twice.

He never loses, or even lets games get close, against clearly inferior competition. Say what you will about Max Hall, but he wins the games he is supposed to.

With McKay Jacobson back and healthy, opposing defenses have to cover the deep ball, and that opens everything up for the Cougars' offensive attack.

My prediction for the game: BYU 56, New Mexico 14.

By the time most people read this article (posted Friday night), this game (which starts at noon MST) will be over.

BYU is set to finish the regular season with a perfect 6-0 record away from Lavell Edwards for the first time since...well...it's been a long time. I think that is quite an accomplishment.

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