Bleacher Report - FIFA World Cup

FIFA World Cup Draw: Fold, Check, or Raise?

Ryan Popilchak — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 11:44:20 -0500

Today was the group draw for the FIFA 2010 World Cup in South Africa. Fans from all over the world watch to see who their team will play in the group stages and hope they get a little luck to go with all their hard work in qualification.

The groups drawn were:
Group A – South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France
Group B – Argentina, South Korea, Nigeria, Greece
Group C – England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia
Group D – Germany, Australia, Ghana, Serbia
Group E – Netherlands, Japan, Cameroon, Denmark
Group F – Italy, New Zealand, Paraguay, Slovakia
Group G – Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Portugal
Group H – Spain, Honduras, Chile, Switzerland

Given that the draw can completely change a team’s prospects in the tournament, I’ve always thought it resembled a poker game just as each player is sizing up his/her cards before the flop.

Here are some of the poker hands that national teams are staring at after the big draw (along with their winning percentages for games with four players, representing the chance of advancing from the group, thanks to this site ). Every hand has it's potential for greatness, possible combinations that will take it to victory and match-ups that it just can't win, which is similar to any team in the tournament.

South Africa —2-7 (13%)
Unfortunately for the host nation, they don’t have much of a chance unless they get lucky. France, Mexico, and Uruguay are all ranked in the top 20 national teams by FIFA and could literally bluff the Bafana Bafana’s out of the tournament. Much like the dreaded 2-7, they would need a miracle flop to pull off an upset.

Nigeria —9-5 suited (22%)
The Super Eagles are not favored to advance but have a definite chance. Much like holding suited cards gives a poker player the hope of a flush, the pairing of Yakubu and Obafemi Martins up front gives Nigeria a shot, but they need to hit a string of form at just the right time.

USA —Pair of Jacks (49%)
The Americans should be optimistic. While they are likely battling it out for second place in the group, their recent form in the Confederations Cup shows they have the talent and organization to move on. Slovenia is a deceptively dangerous team and represents a threat, but the USA just needs to raise early and often, so their superior hand forces the other competitors to feel overwhelmed.

Serbia —King-Jack (33%)
The Serbians have made their first World Cup after completely dominating their qualifying group. Unfortunately for the up and coming soccer nation, they have solid outs but will need some help. Ghana is a formidable team who also qualified in a strong position and Australia proved at the last World Cup they can grind out victories.

Denmark —Pair of Nines (40%) vs Cameroon —King-Eight (25%)
Denmark managed to qualify in first place from a very difficult European group. They were “rewarded” with a group that resembles a table in which 3 players raise before the flop. While the Danes have the upper hand for the second spot in the group, Cameroon absolutely possesses the card to sink them, and his name is Samuel Eto’o.

Italy —Ace-King suited (41%)
While Italy is clearly the best team in this group, they effectively limped into first place. The offense was fairly ineffective and they racked up points by avoiding losses rather than notching definitive wins. Much like an A-Ks, they are in the pole position, still have some work to do in order to advance comfortably, but have enormous upside.

Ivory Coast —Jack-Ten suited (33%)
With players like Didier Drogba, Yaya Toure and Kolo Toure, the team shows all kinds of promise. Unfortunately, they’ve been drawn into this year’s Group of Death. Brazil and Portugal are both world class opponents. The Elephants will need to be on top form to move on, but could easily end up with the straight flush to do it.

Spain —Pair of Aces (63%)
The number one ranked team in the world, got a very favorable draw. While Switzerland is well organized defensively and many are high on Chile’s chances to advance, no team poses a serious threat to the European Champions without once-a-decade luck.

France —Aces in their sleeve (0%)
Les Bleus got into the World Cup by cheating . In poker, it would be the equivalent of finding a glitch in an online entry tournament. That said, teams that get in by shady means, typically find that sports karma comes back to haunt them. I have a sneaky hunch that France is in for a very rough time on the world’s biggest stage.

As we get closer to June, we'll add some in depth analysis of each group and it's participants.

This article is also featured on Sports Opinionated .

Read more FIFA World Cup news on BleacherReport.com

Is Group G The "Group Of Death?" Let the Numbers Decide

John Houmes — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:34:56 -0500

The draw is over. The analysts are spinning their wheels. Which is in the easiest group? Which is the group of death?

Some have declared Group G as the group of death. Certainly a group that has the #2 FiFA ranked team in the world (Brazil), the second ranked team on the African continent (Ivory Coast at #16), and the top ranked non-seeded team (Portugal at #5) is without a doubt a strong group.

But is it the group of death?

I would define the group of death as the group where anything can happen. It is the group where the most teams are at risk for elimination. Is this the case with Group G?

Out of all the groups, it certainly has the strongest set of top three teams. But it also has a weak one...a very weak one:

North Korea.

South Africa (#86) is the only team ranked lower than North Korea (#84), but South Africa is stronger since they are playing at home. North Korea is the weakest team in the weakest position in the tournament.

Does one powerhouse and two strong teams added to the weakest team in the tournament constitute the group of death?

It does for North Korea, but probably not for Brazil or Portugal.

And concerning Ivory Coast, would you be surprised if they were playing in another group and they were eliminated in the beginning stage? Probably not. They are a good team, but there are many that are stronger.

So does one powerhouse, one strong team, one good team that you wouldn't be surprised to see get eliminated, and a very weak team constitute the group of death?

Probably not.

It is much easier to conceive that three good/above average teams and one powerhouse constitute the group of death, because no one is really sure who of the four will be eliminated.

How does one look objectively at the subjective "group of death" designation? By crunching the numbers.

Things become much more clear when the FIFA rankings and the ESPN Power rankings are analyzed.

If the team's rankings from each group are averaged, which group has the average highest ranking?

Group	FIFA Avg	ESPN Avg	Total Avg
H	18.5	16.5	17.5
E	20.75	18.5	19.625
D	21	19.25	20.125
C	21	25.5	23.25
B	23.5	28.5	26
G	26.75	27	26.875
A	31.75	26.25	29
F	36.25	42.75	39.5

Group H (FIFA rank/ESPN rank; Spain 1/2, Switzerland 18/31, Honduras 38/25, Chile 17/8) has the highest average ranking per team, followed by Group E (Netherlands 3/4, Denmark 26/20, Japan 43/35, Cameroon 11/15) and Group D (Germany 6/6, Australia 21/22, Serbia 20/13, Ghana 37/36).

With North Korea dragging the average down, Group G falls to sixth out of the eight groups.

I know, I know. How can I say that Group H has stronger teams than Group G? Well, I'm not. Group G absolutely has stronger teams that Group H, but Group H will be more competitive among all four teams.

Sure, Spain will probably win Group H. But who knows what will happen between Switzerland, Honduras, and Chile? Anything can happen.

Remember the definition? The group of death is the one where the most teams are at risk. It is the group where anything can happen.

With Brazil almost a shoo-in to advance and no one being surprised if Portugal goes through but Ivory Coast does not, Group G is not the group of death.

The numbers don't lie, but there is some subjectivity to it. There is a poll at the top for you to cast your vote.

Read more FIFA World Cup news on BleacherReport.com

Futbol in the Athens of the South?: Nashville's Bid for a World Cup Match

Drew Elmore — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 15:46:45 -0500

Nashville, Tenn., is one of 27 U.S. cities being considered to host one or more World Cup matches in either 2018 or 2022, the city's Metropolitan Sports Authority announced Thursday.

City leaders gave permission to continue with any campaigning associated with FIFA. While one in 27 doesn't sound like great odds, Nashville managed to survive the first round of 58 to fight another day.

Nashville would need to survive two rounds of cuts in order to become a finalist. That final decision will occur around December of 2010.

Nashville is no stranger to international friendlies and even hosted a World Cup qualifier match on April 1, 2009. That match drew 27,959 fans to set a record for the largest crowd to attend a soccer match in the state of Tennessee.

The qualifier between the U.S. men's national team and Trinidad and Tobago was played at LP field, which is where the future matches would be held. LP Field has a capacity of 68,798, though in the past fans have sat in the lower bowl area only. If the entire facility was opened, quite a few hooligans could take in the contest!

City leaders believe a successful bid would generate huge revenues and also put Nashville on the map as a viable sports town. I am biased as a resident, but I would definitely attend at least one match if this comes to fruition.

A link to the Metropolitan Sports Authority: http://www.nashville.gov/sports_authority

Read more FIFA World Cup news on BleacherReport.com

Ten Biggest Misses Ever During a Penalty Shootout

Andrew Jordan — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 09:07:14 -0500

Throughout the history of football, there have been many great matches that have ended during penalty shootouts. During the penalty shootout, many heroes have been born for great saves that have gotten their side a trophy or advancement onto the next round, or missed to ruin their sides chances of advancing or preventing your side from winning. This is a list of the players who missed and ruined their sides chances of winning. So here is a list of the ten players who cost their side in the ultimate battle of nerves: a penalty shootout.

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The Top (Er) 11 Goal Celebrations Ever

Carolina Tiger — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 12:15:36 -0500

Jimmy Bullard's fantastically funny goal celebration for Hull City against Manchester City, has helped to put to bed the ghost of last season's media hyped assault on Tiger's boss Phil Brown (well at least for now). Brown had done the same to his under performing players last Christmas to much constination by the British media and Bullard's antics diffused a tense week for the Manager and his team. I thought it would be interesting to look at some of the other famous goal celebrations, as the festive season rolls around. In the immortal words of Spinal Tap's, Nigel Tufnel, "Well, it's one louder, isn't it? It's not ten. You see, most blokes, you know, will be playing at ten. You're on ten here, all the way up, all the way up, all the way up, you're on ten on your guitar. Where can you go from there? Where?"

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